How will you react at 02:00 UTC?

[gmiwenht]

Some thoughts:

Bitcoin is very different from other markets in that it never sleeps. Someone that slept through the crash would wake up to find his assets have halved in price; someone that slept through the cooldown announcement would not have had time to move their funds. When we picture the typical hotshot Wall St broker who works 90 hours a week and does coke on the job, even they sleep. With Bitcoin, you snooze, you lose. For the first time (maybe ever) we actually have an interesting situation: the Bitcoin market (i.e. Mt.Gox) is about to "open", following some serious events in the past 24 hours, and some movement in other markets. The opening bell will ring, and then nobody knows what is going to happen. This is pretty much how all markets work. With Bitcoin, we have always enjoyed the luxury of "temporal liquidity", i.e. there is never any spring-loading of big sales in anticipation of a certain time point. Right now this is exactly what is happening. Everyone in the Bitcoin world is planning their move right now (even if that move is to do nothing at all).

So what will happen to the price? For sure it will move violently in all directions. There is money to be made over the next 48 hours, if that is what you are in the game for. Beyond sentiment, speculation and conspiracy theories, I believe there are two opposing theories to consider:

1) UP: Those who were holding Bitcoin and wanted to sell could have easily moved their Bitcoin to another exchange and done so (assuming it's less than their nominal withdrawal limit). And this is exactly what happened, with the price now somewhere around 50-70 USD. However, those who were holding fiat and wanted to buy are still holding fiat and still want to buy. This suggests that buying pressure will outweigh selling pressure significantly after the "opening bell".

2) DOWN: With the price at other exchanges now half of that at Mt.Gox there is bound to be a lot of "pre-meditated panic selling". This would be coming from (a) traders who hold too much Bitcoin to withdraw to another exchange ("big traders" with six-figure amounts), (b) traders who are not aware of other exchanges, or for whatever reason won't use them (e.g. newbies, your mom who took out a loan to buy BTC, etc.), (c) traders who already withdrew their daily limit from Mt.Gox and want to sell at as high a price as possible between 123 USD and the current market aggregate. This suggests that A LOT of market sells will be made at 02:00 UTC, driving the price way down, even if for just a brief period. Because the orders are market orders, there is no opportunity to react to the market. These sells will erupt like one huge market price dump, and inevitably push the price way below the current market aggregate.

What is my pure speculation on this? I think it will go as low as 20, before rebounding to 100+. I really believe the market dump is going to be HUGE, and I think the buys will be more calculated. A lot of people will probably wait to see how low it goes before trying to get back in.

Thoughts?

[1714488089]

1714488089

[1714488089]

1714488089

[scarce]

What is my pure speculation on this? I think it will go as low as 20, before rebounding to 100+. I really believe the market dump is going to be HUGE, and I think the buys will be more calculated. A lot of people will probably wait to see how low it goes before trying to get back in.

+1

[rebuilder]

I will be snoring lightly. I may wake to adjust my pillow and/or blanket a bit.

[bitcon]

i've been buying cheap coins at $66 all day long on virwox.  haha suckaz

[samson]

I will be in bed sleeping. When I awake I'll check the price.

Nothing will surprise me. Well, I will be very surprised if there's a new ATH.

[sgbett]

I think its gonna be so wild it will invent directions we never even heard of

Here's a bit of speculation for you.

I've been watching clark moody today, because it appears that though trading is frozen, the order-book still looks like it being updated.

I've noticed the number of bids has only dropped by a few hundred, whilst the asks have dropped by thousands. Its not a very scientific experiment, as didn't record the numbers at the start and the numbers now.

My interpretation, fwiw, is that it seems there are still a bunch of buyers who are either i) asleep or ii) leaving their bids up intentionally

The sellers might have just  left the order book so they can pull their BTC (whether they then go sell that elsewhere is anyones guess) but either way the sell orders have been pulled.

Overall, that still feels like a fairly bullish net sentiment. I was as skeptical as the next man, about all the posters shouting 'lalala' with fingers in their ears, proclaiming everyone is an idiot and that this was just a shakedown and we'll be at $1000 by April 31st

Now I am daring to beleive, that actually the immense buying pressure that was fuelling the pre-rally growth, wasn't entirely bubble-crazy speculators. Rather, that the world is coming to realise just what a potent thing BTC is.

I'm still putting in my lowball bids 10s and 20s but I am seriously thinking they won't get filled now, and I'll just have to be happy with what coins I have left, because I am too chicken to buy any higher

[EuroTrash]

I'll be there to watch it happening. This is going to be more exciting than, say, a night out clubbing - or maybe your favourite TV series. And there's BTC to be made.

Good luck to you all - but most of all, good luck to me 

[yokosan]

I'll be there to watch it happening. This is going to be more exciting than, say, a night out clubbing - or maybe your favourite TV series. And there's BTC to be made.

Good luck to you all - but most of all, good luck to me  

I have been drinking coffee all day in anticipation of this magnificent event and now I am twitching like a madman. Will be watching all the major chart sites at the same time from the moment the first trade hits.

[stretchwynand]

I'll be there to watch it happening. This is going to be more exciting than, say, a night out clubbing - or maybe your favourite TV series. And there's BTC to be made.

Good luck to you all - but most of all, good luck to me  

I have been drinking coffee all day in anticipation of this magnificent event and now I am twitching like a madman. Will be watching all the major chart sites at the same time from the moment the first trade hits.

LOL

[glendall]

Bag of chips and some beer. Don't have too too much $$ involved so I'm just going enjoy watching the ticker tonight.

[Digikeys]

Great thread and nice, well thought out analysis.... a welcome change from the bulls and bears spreading FUD around these parts!!! 

[HappyBitCoinUser]

Bag of chips and some beer. Don't have too too much $$ involved so I'm just going enjoy watching the ticker tonight.

+1

[ZephramC]

It will certainly be interesting. :-]

[chrsjrcj]

This is all I need to know:



I'm holding, but it's not Bitcoins. Give me $30 and we'll start talking.

[shamntalk]

Anyone with 1/2 a brain will cut their losses.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

Anyone with 1/2 a brain will cut their losses.

Anyone with a full brain will scoop up the cheap coins. It may fall further, but not for long.

BTC is a roller-coaster folks. Hang on and enjoy the ride.

[dave111223]

Other exchanges have bottomed out at about $70.

I would assume that as soon as mtgox opens the price will shoot down to $70, at which point the buying will start bringing it back to somewhere around $100.

[aigeezer]

BTC is a roller-coaster folks.

I get your point, but from my perspective fiat is the roller coaster.

BTC is slow and steady. 11 million... drip, drip, drip... 21 million.

I'll be mining at 02:00 UTC, just like every other night (or day).

[TsuyokuNaritai]

Other exchanges have bottomed out at about $70.

I would assume that as soon as mtgox opens the price will shoot down to $70, at which point the buying will start bringing it back to somewhere around $100.

When Gox suspended trading, people who wanted to sell at all costs could easily their bitcoins out to sell at other exchanges, lowering the price on those low volume exchanges.

People who wanted to buy cheap coins on those exchanges couldn't get their $ in as easily. The speculation threads are full of people cursing that they have no fiat on these exchanges to buy cheap BTC.

[Aozora21]

Other exchanges have bottomed out at about $70.

I would assume that as soon as mtgox opens the price will shoot down to $70, at which point the buying will start bringing it back to somewhere around $100.

My guess is that everyone buying $50-70 coins are going to try dumping them on gox for 120 at the same time even though likely all the buys that high were canceled, and the price is going to spiral down again because of the mad dash to about 35.