Why this rally isn't a bubble yet...

[sgbett]

The price has broken the ATH (are nearly has, depending on your p.o.v) but google trends is showing search interest only just starting to bubble up - apparently driven by Africa and eastern Europe.

https://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore?q=bitcoin



So if this hype cycle plays out like the others we're (once again) still at the "early adopter" phase for this particular bubble. Will this time be the vertical on the s-curve of adoption? I'd say 50/50 this time round.

$560k folks. Never Forget.

[sgbett]

overlaid on price action...

[ROT13]

Good post, the media coverage has indeed been relatively muted.  Bodes well for a significant upside still to be seen.

[hgmichna]

Google does not work in China, but almost all the trading volume is in China.

[MatDerKater]

Good post, the media coverage has indeed been relatively muted.  Bodes well for a significant upside still to be seen.

Just look at USD exchange volume. There is no interest in Bitcoin compared with before.

After the massive Bitfinex scam, managers of serious capital, even capital set aside for high risk ventures, realise that they cannot take the risk of trading Bitcoin, when the exchanges can rob their customers with apparent impunity. The profit margins available in Bitcoin these days just don't warrant the huge systemic risks involved.

Both AMD and NVidia for example have outperformed Bitcoin in the past year. The gains to be had in Bitcoin just aren't that special anymore to serious high risk traders. This pump is entirely to do with China, the land of fake iphones, fake cars, fake food, and no doubt, fake Bitcoin volume.

[ROT13]

Bodes well for a significant upside still to be seen.

[1Referee]

Google does not work in China, but almost all the trading volume is in China.

Chinese exchanges are the absolute leaders when it comes to their trading volumes. However, it's not only Chinese people making use of BTC/CNY trading. There are plenty of very wealthy individuals operating from China, but where they actually reside in a different country. Chinese exchanges lends themselves perfectly for high speed trading, which attracts people with very deep pockets from all around the world. Especially when exchanges like BTCC allow people to trade without any fees. It allows large players to benefit from even the slightest price changes, where it results in massive profits.

[sgbett]

Good post, the media coverage has indeed been relatively muted.  Bodes well for a significant upside still to be seen.

Just look at USD exchange volume. There is no interest in Bitcoin compared with before.

I think its shaping up a bit like oct 2013, volume is comparable factoring in organic growth.

If I was an EW guy id say this looks like the first wave up. (its had its own mini 5 count).

Reckon we are due for a correction - possible retest the 780-800 that we bounced off in june and then broke through in october.

Then starts wave 3 where we hit maybe 2x all time high. Followed by another pullback

Then we'll see the vertical of this rally 5-10k?

Each bubble has played out over a longer timescale than the last, so wouldnt be surprised if it takes 6-12 months.

The shakeout to ~800 will be an epic beartrap imho.

The spartans will of course HODL

[ROT13]

Yes I think we are due for a correction shortly then another leg up.

Personally I'm sceptical about anything greater than 2k, or even 1.4. 

[hgmichna]

… Each bubble has played out over a longer timescale than the last, …

Since each "bubble's" price was later nicely confirmed and surpassed, one could argue that those were not bubbles, but just prescient price movements.

In other words, as long as the price keeps rising, only the last bubble is genuine. (Nothing lasts forever.)

[sgbett]

… Each bubble has played out over a longer timescale than the last, …

Since each "bubble's" price was later nicely confirmed and surpassed, one could argue that those were not bubbles, but just prescient price movements.

In other words, as long as the price keeps rising, only the last bubble is genuine. (Nothing lasts forever.)

QFT!

[ROT13]

11/16/2013 - 11/20/2013

[sgbett]

well that escalated quickly! 

[sgbett]

Reckon we are due for a correction - possible retest the 780-800 that we bounced off in june and then broke through in october.

I think thats the only prediction I've made for a while now.

Lets see if it holds up now!

[hgmichna]

…
Reckon we are due for a correction - possible retest the 780-800 that we bounced off in june and then broke through in october.
…
The shakeout to ~800 will be an epic beartrap imho.

The spartans will of course HODL

That was prescient!

Perhaps we should just forget the last 24 days, because if you take them out, everything looks nice again. The price gently rises. 

[rogerwilco]

The entire rally is gone, with the downswing appearing stronger than the upswing.

How and why is this going to hold again?

[ft73]

The entire rally is gone, with the downswing appearing stronger than the upswing.

How and why is this going to hold again?

Bubble popping and back to normal.
Usual stuff.

[sgbett]

The entire rally is gone, with the downswing appearing stronger than the upswing.

How and why is this going to hold again?

sig checks out!

[rogerwilco]

The entire rally is gone, with the downswing appearing stronger than the upswing.

How and why is this going to hold again?

sig checks out!

What? I don't understand.

[d5000]

I like these fundamental analysis posts. We've had a nice correction or crash, like you want to call it, but fundamentals continue to be positive. On the Google Trends chart, you can see that long-term the interest is growing, but slowly.

Another non-price charts I would use to make long term predictions are the following:

Transactions per second

Transaction fees in USD - with a 900% growth in 2016, it shows that people are willing to pay for transactions, so they are actually using BTC and not only spamming.

It would be nice to see all charts together in one pic - price, search volume and transaction volume