writing my thoughts about price changes in last 2 months / last 2 days (~$200 / btc difference).
just my observations:
(now and further - sorry for my english).
i think continuous sales of the Avalon-ASIC's
ONLY FOR BITCOINS largerly have caused the crisis in last two days (as an observable consequence).
*) the problem and main idea is (was), that bitcoins are obtainable in restricted quantities, and in the last year exchange market was more or less balanced;
*) at some time Avalon begins to sell asics for BTC's ONLY (each for 70+) and what happens? many individuals are about to buy Avalons, ie buy bitcoins in increased amounts.
=> btc-price increase begins...
*) all this time (up to last two days) Avalon does not sell most BTC-income (price increasing) - causing even more increase in price, because there is a need for BTC's for further miners... and so on.
short modell should be:
I buy Miner (N pcs) > transfer 70 btc (x N) to Avalon > all these BTC's are on hold...
You buy Miner (N pcs) > transfer 70 btc (x N) to Avalon > all these BTC's are on hold...
He/She buys Miner (N pcs) > transfer 70 btc (x N) to Avalon > all these BTC's are on hold...
(repeating each day / ~2 months range)
note, that bitcoin market is no more so tiny, but again, not such a big one to handle [70 x NN] bitcoins disappear each and every day... surely the btc-price goes higher and higher then.
*) at some moment we have time when all who was able to buy ASIC's (70 BTC each) are satisfied or not more able to afford this deal (at $150-$250 / BTC rates. USD-equivalents calculate by yourself please).
this statistical decrease in orders could be well known by Avalon... now slowly Avalon begins to sell accumulated bitcoins.
*) at the same time people are buying less BTC, due they can't afford too expensive ASIC's and there is no need in bitcoins in such amounts.
that's the beginning of big fall.
*) but there are plenty of people in the wild making money on price changes, so they are already selling bitcoins too, and that's an observable crisis...
*) many other (late) people follow, what results in a "mass-hysteria sale".
i think all this was planned by Avalons team, almost sure. but this was planned in not too professional way i think
in any case, imagine - hardware announced as for $1500 sold for BTC 70+ at $70-$266 rates.
wow.
they just did it
greed is something wonderful sometimes, i mean not (only) avalon's side...
that's incredible.
sorry again for my english. i know it sucks.
should be understandable what i would like to say.
feel free to judge and correct me please.
