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Author Topic: SpaceX and the prospects of Mars colonization.  (Read 9444 times)
Spendulus
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January 11, 2017, 06:25:11 PM
 #21

Space X and the prospects of Mars colonization.

The goal of 1 million inhabitants on Mars is unfeasible. With the Mars Colonial Transporter, at 100 passengers per flight, this would require 10,000 flights only to transport the people.

But the material support is about 10 times more demanding. So, as Elon Musk recognizes, the system would require 110,000 flights (see https://aeon.co/essays/elon-musk-puts-his-case-for-a-multi-planet-civilisation; see his recent presentation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10gECHeMSds).

Even at one flight a day, it would take 301 years. And to be able to make a flight a day, taking in account that the voyage to go and return would take much more than 1 year (during times when Mars is more far away, it would be much longer), he would need 425 reusable spacecrafts. That is beyond the normal resources of any company or country.

Even at 24 flights a year, 110,000 flights would take 4583 years.

To finance the passengers flights, he would need to find 1 million people willing to pay 200,000 USDs to go live permanently on hell. Only the poor would be ready to try their luck, looking for well paid jobs on hell. But they won't have 200,000 USDs.

Musk might find 1 million people willing to go and work there for very good jobs, but someone else would have to pay for the trip and pay them their wages.

Selling tourism trips won't pay the voyages either. I doubt he will be able to find many groups of 20 people willing to pay 1 million bucks to pay the ticket of the other 80 (he can make first and second class seats) for at least 2 years to go and return from hell, especially after the trip became more common.

It wouldn't be like a month on the Moon or on a tourist space station. With time to wait for the shortest return, it would be about spending more than two years on a living hell.

I don’t see many people eager to go live on Antarctica, the most similar place on Earth.

Therefore, unless there are on Mars very rich minerals, or other very valuable resources, that would pay for the trips (people and resources going to Mars and minerals coming back to Earth), with current technology of space flight, Mars will be dependent on Earth, with a few thousand or, probably, hundreds, of inhabitants.

We'll be a two planets species, but the second planet will end badly if the first planet ends badly too. Only with new technology on flight and energy, Mars will be able to be independent.

The goal of making humankind a dual planet species is very worthy from the perspective of ensuring that we can endure millions of years more.

But normal people, who care first about how to pay their bills, just do what is practical to this goal and hope for the best. They won't ruin their life to go to Mars and ensure some of us will survive on the remote case that a catastrophe strikes Earth.

If massive colonization of Mars isn't economically feasible, it won't happen.

It will be fantastic to humankind in terms of pride and self-esteem to go to Mars and build a permanent station there for investigation and some scarce tourism, but we won't have more than that until we find economic reason to do more.

But, make no mistake, even if its plans to colonize Mars seem too optimistic, Space X deserves credit on going to Mars.

They have been paid by NASA to send and return cargo to the International Space Station with excellent results.

After some delays, they are going to lunch their Falcon Heavy this year, probably will start sending NASA astronauts to the International Space Station also this year and are promising a first trip with no humans to Mars on 2018 (better bet on 2019).

Don't mix them with all those lunatics, without a penny, that have big imaginary plans.

If Space X is able to send humans to Mars sooner than NASA (Space X is saying 2025), even if with NASA cooperation (if NASA figures out that Musk is really going to make it, they will jump on board), Musk will have his deserved place in History, side by side with Von Braun and Korolev (forget about Gagarin or Armstrong, beside courage, they had little merit).
Why don't we send a million robots?
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January 12, 2017, 01:30:41 AM
 #22

Space X and the prospects of Mars colonization.

...[clip]...

Zero.

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January 12, 2017, 02:48:57 AM
 #23

Space X and the prospects of Mars colonization.

The goal of 1 million inhabitants on Mars is unfeasible. With the Mars Colonial Transporter, at 100 passengers per flight, this would require 10,000 flights only to transport the people.

But the material support is about 10 times more demanding. So, as Elon Musk recognizes, the system would require 110,000 flights (see https://aeon.co/essays/elon-musk-puts-his-case-for-a-multi-planet-civilisation; see his recent presentation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10gECHeMSds).

Even at one flight a day, it would take 301 years. And to be able to make a flight a day, taking in account that the voyage to go and return would take much more than 1 year (during times when Mars is more far away, it would be much longer), he would need 425 reusable spacecrafts. That is beyond the normal resources of any company or country.

Even at 24 flights a year, 110,000 flights would take 4583 years.

To finance the passengers flights, he would need to find 1 million people willing to pay 200,000 USDs to go live permanently on hell. Only the poor would be ready to try their luck, looking for well paid jobs on hell. But they won't have 200,000 USDs.

Musk might find 1 million people willing to go and work there for very good jobs, but someone else would have to pay for the trip and pay them their wages.

Selling tourism trips won't pay the voyages either. I doubt he will be able to find many groups of 20 people willing to pay 1 million bucks to pay the ticket of the other 80 (he can make first and second class seats) for at least 2 years to go and return from hell, especially after the trip became more common.

It wouldn't be like a month on the Moon or on a tourist space station. With time to wait for the shortest return, it would be about spending more than two years on a living hell.

I don’t see many people eager to go live on Antarctica, the most similar place on Earth.

Therefore, unless there are on Mars very rich minerals, or other very valuable resources, that would pay for the trips (people and resources going to Mars and minerals coming back to Earth), with current technology of space flight, Mars will be dependent on Earth, with a few thousand or, probably, hundreds, of inhabitants.

We'll be a two planets species, but the second planet will end badly if the first planet ends badly too. Only with new technology on flight and energy, Mars will be able to be independent.

The goal of making humankind a dual planet species is very worthy from the perspective of ensuring that we can endure millions of years more.

But normal people, who care first about how to pay their bills, just do what is practical to this goal and hope for the best. They won't ruin their life to go to Mars and ensure some of us will survive on the remote case that a catastrophe strikes Earth.

If massive colonization of Mars isn't economically feasible, it won't happen.

It will be fantastic to humankind in terms of pride and self-esteem to go to Mars and build a permanent station there for investigation and some scarce tourism, but we won't have more than that until we find economic reason to do more.

But, make no mistake, even if its plans to colonize Mars seem too optimistic, Space X deserves credit on going to Mars.

They have been paid by NASA to send and return cargo to the International Space Station with excellent results.

After some delays, they are going to lunch their Falcon Heavy this year, probably will start sending NASA astronauts to the International Space Station also this year and are promising a first trip with no humans to Mars on 2018 (better bet on 2019).

Don't mix them with all those lunatics, without a penny, that have big imaginary plans.

If Space X is able to send humans to Mars sooner than NASA (Space X is saying 2025), even if with NASA cooperation (if NASA figures out that Musk is really going to make it, they will jump on board), Musk will have his deserved place in History, side by side with Von Braun and Korolev (forget about Gagarin or Armstrong, beside courage, they had little merit).
Why don't we send a million robots?

People ARE robots.     Grin
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January 12, 2017, 07:49:59 AM
 #24

but it's different when the goal is not about making mars as a second world, but more like evacuation planet.

Mars is not suited to act as an evacuation planet. The atmosphere and climatic conditions in Mars makes it very difficult to create permanent bases there. Moons such as Titan may be more suitable for that role.

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January 12, 2017, 07:56:13 AM
 #25

but it's different when the goal is not about making mars as a second world, but more like evacuation planet.

Mars is not suited to act as an evacuation planet. The atmosphere and climatic conditions in Mars makes it very difficult to create permanent bases there. Moons such as Titan may be more suitable for that role.
Im agree with you.Mars is not suited for a human life for example how's human lived in Mars with a very limited water to drink.Thats a major problem to face to colonized Mars.
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January 12, 2017, 08:21:31 AM
 #26

I've read a good article about the Elon Musk life and how he started everything, and I think he is a genius man and soon he will launch the Space X and he has a good support from NASA, I hope by the next decade we will see something like this.
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January 12, 2017, 11:34:45 AM
 #27


Musk might find 1 million people willing to go and work there for very good jobs, but someone else would have to pay for the trip and pay them their wages.


They have been paid by NASA to send and return cargo to the International Space Station with excellent results.



I am sure the taxpayers are fine with paying for that. I mean who would not pay 99% income tax in order to find rocks and sand on Mars.

I hope all governments of the world increase their income taxes to 99% in order to achieve this wonderful scientific milestone.


Who is with me?

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January 12, 2017, 11:39:09 AM
 #28


Musk might find 1 million people willing to go and work there for very good jobs, but someone else would have to pay for the trip and pay them their wages.


They have been paid by NASA to send and return cargo to the International Space Station with excellent results.



I am sure the taxpayers are fine with paying for that. I mean who would not pay 99% income tax in order to find rocks and sand on Mars.

I hope all governments of the world increase their income taxes to 99% in order to achieve this wonderful scientific milestone.


Who is with me?

While I am not really against with this explorations. I should say I really agree with you how they should prioritize more evident and more pressing maters. Like diseases breakouts, starvation, education.

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January 12, 2017, 12:37:54 PM
 #29

Mars... Well let's be realistic, someone has to be the first. It might not be as glorious and nce to do but to further our species we must undertake some risks.
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January 12, 2017, 01:04:27 PM
 #30


Musk might find 1 million people willing to go and work there for very good jobs, but someone else would have to pay for the trip and pay them their wages.


They have been paid by NASA to send and return cargo to the International Space Station with excellent results.



I am sure the taxpayers are fine with paying for that. I mean who would not pay 99% income tax in order to find rocks and sand on Mars.

I hope all governments of the world increase their income taxes to 99% in order to achieve this wonderful scientific milestone.


Who is with me?
We could find rocks and sand?  You know, there's something to ponder.  If you got to Mars and did find some rocks, and some sand.  Over the hill, on the other side of the valley you know what there might be?

THere might be more rocks and sand.
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January 12, 2017, 01:57:39 PM
 #31


Musk might find 1 million people willing to go and work there for very good jobs, but someone else would have to pay for the trip and pay them their wages.


They have been paid by NASA to send and return cargo to the International Space Station with excellent results.



I am sure the taxpayers are fine with paying for that. I mean who would not pay 99% income tax in order to find rocks and sand on Mars.

I hope all governments of the world increase their income taxes to 99% in order to achieve this wonderful scientific milestone.


Who is with me?
We could find rocks and sand?  You know, there's something to ponder.  If you got to Mars and did find some rocks, and some sand.  Over the hill, on the other side of the valley you know what there might be?

THere might be more rocks and sand.

There could also be alien pyramids, and underground alien cities.

Humanity might discover it's origins, and we will soon realize that we were created by 13th dimension shapeshifting reptoids from Mars. Now that my friend is worth a 99% tax rate.

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January 12, 2017, 03:33:35 PM
 #32


Musk might find 1 million people willing to go and work there for very good jobs, but someone else would have to pay for the trip and pay them their wages.


They have been paid by NASA to send and return cargo to the International Space Station with excellent results.



I am sure the taxpayers are fine with paying for that. I mean who would not pay 99% income tax in order to find rocks and sand on Mars.

I hope all governments of the world increase their income taxes to 99% in order to achieve this wonderful scientific milestone.


Who is with me?
We could find rocks and sand?  You know, there's something to ponder.  If you got to Mars and did find some rocks, and some sand.  Over the hill, on the other side of the valley you know what there might be?

THere might be more rocks and sand.

There could also be alien pyramids, and underground alien cities.

Humanity might discover it's origins, and we will soon realize that we were created by 13th dimension shapeshifting reptoids from Mars. Now that my friend is worth a 99% tax rate.
Not only that but we could harness those shapeshifters behind our wagons.  Or ride them bareback through the sky.

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January 13, 2017, 05:40:25 AM
 #33

Mars... Well let's be realistic, someone has to be the first. It might not be as glorious and nce to do but to further our species we must undertake some risks.

The question is whether we should prioritize the Mars mission over other targets, such as the eradication of poverty and universal free education. The huge cost associated with the Mars mission makes it very unattractive for me.

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January 13, 2017, 07:18:00 AM
 #34

Who cares how much it costs or whether it's funded by government or private funds, if it wasn't for explorers many of us would not be sitting in the countries we now call home, so kudos to Musk for keeping the explorer spirit alive I say.

Many first settlers gave their lives both on the journey to their new homes and in building a life for themselves once there, be it from new diseases, unfavourable surroundings etc., I don't expect it will be any different when humankind expands into the heavens.

For those that say the monies used to fund such exploits would be better spent on curing disease, ending wars, eliminating poverty etc., sit back and take a look at one of the primary drivers for expansion to other planets - over population. If you spend money to keep people alive longer we'll simply need to start looking for another home sooner rather than later as we fill up even more quickly.

I personally would rather see humankind shoot for the stars well before we start scrambling over each other for the last morsel of food.
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January 13, 2017, 01:20:28 PM
 #35

Who cares how much it costs or whether it's funded by government or private funds, if it wasn't for explorers many of us would not be sitting in the countries we now call home, so kudos to Musk for keeping the explorer spirit alive I say.

Many first settlers gave their lives both on the journey to their new homes and in building a life for themselves once there, be it from new diseases, unfavourable surroundings etc., I don't expect it will be any different when humankind expands into the heavens.

For those that say the monies used to fund such exploits would be better spent on curing disease, ending wars, eliminating poverty etc., sit back and take a look at one of the primary drivers for expansion to other planets - over population. If you spend money to keep people alive longer we'll simply need to start looking for another home sooner rather than later as we fill up even more quickly.

I personally would rather see humankind shoot for the stars well before we start scrambling over each other for the last morsel of food.

I guess it should just be considered depending on the urgent priorities and immediate concerns mankind is facing. But true enough, just what if it's already too late for the Earth. That sooner or late it will become inhabitable to man. Wouldn't now be the time to do it - before it's too late.

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January 13, 2017, 04:12:05 PM
 #36

Space X and the prospects of Mars colonization.

The goal of 1 million inhabitants on Mars is unfeasible. With the Mars Colonial Transporter, at 100 passengers per flight, this would require 10,000 flights only to transport the people.

But the material support is about 10 times more demanding. So, as Elon Musk recognizes, the system would require 110,000 flights (see https://aeon.co/essays/elon-musk-puts-his-case-for-a-multi-planet-civilisation; see his recent presentation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10gECHeMSds).

Even at one flight a day, it would take 301 years. And to be able to make a flight a day, taking in account that the voyage to go and return would take much more than 1 year (during times when Mars is more far away, it would be much longer), he would need 425 reusable spacecrafts. That is beyond the normal resources of any company or country.

Even at 24 flights a year, 110,000 flights would take 4583 years.

To finance the passengers flights, he would need to find 1 million people willing to pay 200,000 USDs to go live permanently on hell. Only the poor would be ready to try their luck, looking for well paid jobs on hell. But they won't have 200,000 USDs.

Musk might find 1 million people willing to go and work there for very good jobs, but someone else would have to pay for the trip and pay them their wages.

Selling tourism trips won't pay the voyages either. I doubt he will be able to find many groups of 20 people willing to pay 1 million bucks to pay the ticket of the other 80 (he can make first and second class seats) for at least 2 years to go and return from hell, especially after the trip became more common.

It wouldn't be like a month on the Moon or on a tourist space station. With time to wait for the shortest return, it would be about spending more than two years on a living hell.

I don’t see many people eager to go live on Antarctica, the most similar place on Earth.

Therefore, unless there are on Mars very rich minerals, or other very valuable resources, that would pay for the trips (people and resources going to Mars and minerals coming back to Earth), with current technology of space flight, Mars will be dependent on Earth, with a few thousand or, probably, hundreds, of inhabitants.

We'll be a two planets species, but the second planet will end badly if the first planet ends badly too. Only with new technology on flight and energy, Mars will be able to be independent.

The goal of making humankind a dual planet species is very worthy from the perspective of ensuring that we can endure millions of years more.

But normal people, who care first about how to pay their bills, just do what is practical to this goal and hope for the best. They won't ruin their life to go to Mars and ensure some of us will survive on the remote case that a catastrophe strikes Earth.

If massive colonization of Mars isn't economically feasible, it won't happen.

It will be fantastic to humankind in terms of pride and self-esteem to go to Mars and build a permanent station there for investigation and some scarce tourism, but we won't have more than that until we find economic reason to do more.

But, make no mistake, even if its plans to colonize Mars seem too optimistic, Space X deserves credit on going to Mars.

They have been paid by NASA to send and return cargo to the International Space Station with excellent results.

After some delays, they are going to lunch their Falcon Heavy this year, probably will start sending NASA astronauts to the International Space Station also this year and are promising a first trip with no humans to Mars on 2018 (better bet on 2019).

Don't mix them with all those lunatics, without a penny, that have big imaginary plans.

If Space X is able to send humans to Mars sooner than NASA (Space X is saying 2025), even if with NASA cooperation (if NASA figures out that Musk is really going to make it, they will jump on board), Musk will have his deserved place in History, side by side with Von Braun and Korolev (forget about Gagarin or Armstrong, beside courage, they had little merit).
Why don't we send a million robots?

dude, so you think this experiment is for robot?. oh yeah, send robots to mars, and we just watching it behind the screen from earth, human.

if we use human to there, perhaps we can see how human will do the adaptation directly there, that may lead us into a new big step of human.

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January 16, 2017, 01:31:33 PM
 #37

Fish Are Having a Real Hard Time in Space





This is according to research published recently in Scientific Reports by a team of biologists at Tokyo Institute of Technology who conducted remote imaging experiments on newly-hatched medaka fish launched into space.


Medaka fish arrived at the International Space Station - Tokyo Tech Research

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qESjUtqJiB4



Read more at http://motherboard.vice.com/read/fish-are-having-a-real-hard-time-in-space.


Cool
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January 16, 2017, 02:09:17 PM
 #38

Prospects of Mars colonization can be the one of the most needed to be study. We cannot say that the earth can lasts longer, there is a global warming what they are saying, a lot of tragedy can happen. When will our mother earth be lasts? What are our future needs? We need one planet to be reserved, where, we citizens can live.
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January 16, 2017, 02:17:45 PM
 #39

Prospects of Mars colonization can be the one of the most needed to be study. We cannot say that the earth can lasts longer, there is a global warming what they are saying, a lot of tragedy can happen. When will our mother earth be lasts? What are our future needs? We need one planet to be reserved, where, we citizens can live.

This is very true. But I have to say that this still needs to be balanced out with all the other concerns. We should never compromise the present chasing for the future. There are urgent issues that are really needed to be addressed immediately and the government should also take care of this whilst going for the exploration as well.

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January 17, 2017, 01:20:21 AM
 #40

Prospects of Mars colonization can be the one of the most needed to be study. We cannot say that the earth can lasts longer, there is a global warming what they are saying, a lot of tragedy can happen. When will our mother earth be lasts? What are our future needs? We need one planet to be reserved, where, we citizens can live.

There are other option, such as "ONeill colonies" at the L4 and L4 orbital position in the Moon's orbit.  These could be built with material from the Moon.

They could reach self sufficiency much quicker than a Mars colony.
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