Difficulty after BFL

[Epicblood]

I know this thread probably already exists, but I couldn't find it (sorry)

Anyway, lets assume that BFL ships all it's units, what is a likely difficulty when that happens?

[1715379220]

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[1715379220]

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[1715379220]

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[1715379220]

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[MarKusRomanus]

I'm going to say...more?

[Epicblood]

I'm going to say...more?

yes well I figured that, I was looking for an actual estimate, will it double, triple, or will it only increase a little bit.

[MarKusRomanus]

Oh i understand.. just being funny.  That would be a hard estimate i think.  I'll be interested I what others have to say and their reasoning.

[Epicblood]

I'd try to figure it out myself, but not exactly sure what goes into calculating difficulty :p

[Clearfly]

Gonna be looking easily 60 - 100 million.

[Epicblood]

Gonna be looking easily 60 - 100 million.

Well, guess that means I'm out xD
Litecoin here I come :p

[DrG]

After BFL Batch 1 & 2, and Avalon Batch 3, and ASICMiner we'll probably be in the mid 40million range - maybe by June?  Then the oddities like Helveticoin might come in or some other unknowns.  Either way GPUminers will be in Altcoins.  From then on it will be an all out ASIC arms race.  60-100 million by July?  You buy more ASIC if you think BTC will go to 1000USD never knowing what the cap on hashrate will be.  Electric rates will start to matter by this time next year and the Gen2 or even Gen3 units will start coming out.

Or BTC has another issue and something like LTC or PPC takes over - unlikely but you never know.

[creativex]

Sadly Bitcoin doesn't even need an issue of it's own to fail. It's being GOXXED to death.

[Epicblood]

Sadly Bitcoin doesn't even need an issue of it's own to fail. It's being GOXXED to death.

IMO can't really blame Gox, blame all the miners who kept all their bitcoins at Gox and solely used Gox.
But that is a discussion for another thread.

[bcpokey]

Since no one has any idea how many units are ordered through BFL, no one can say what the difficulty will be when they ship. How many ounces of unicorn blood does it take to fill a faeries bladder? I dunno.

Difficulty scales linearly with Hashrate, if you wish to figure that out, or guess at it. 1200 x 87GH units from Avalon (give or take) will at ~105TH to the existing ~67TH. That will put us roughly into 24Mil difficulty range.

If and when BFL ships it is anybodies guess, but as you can see fairly simply, 150TH will add about 20Mil difficulty, so anywhere between 25mil and 100mil by August seems plausible.

[computerparts]

A bit over 300 million.

[dataphile]

Tough to say. You can't just multiply the average GH/s of an order by the number of orders and add it to current difficulty. Many people who are spending 100 watts to mine at 500 mh/s will probably drop out, which will reduce the difficulty by some amount as well.

[k9quaint]

At the moment, it likes the same as before BFL.

[DrG]

At the moment, it likes the same as before BFL.

Uh, it still is before BFL. 

[Operatr]

The difficulty is prepare to shell out serious cash to be a Bitcoin miner soon to make anything doing it, and new fierce competition.

[firefop]

After BFL Batch 1 & 2, and Avalon Batch 3, and ASICMiner we'll probably be in the mid 40million range - maybe by June?  Then the oddities like Helveticoin might come in or some other unknowns.  Either way GPUminers will be in Altcoins.  From then on it will be an all out ASIC arms race.  60-100 million by July?  You buy more ASIC if you think BTC will go to 1000USD never knowing what the cap on hashrate will be.  Electric rates will start to matter by this time next year and the Gen2 or even Gen3 units will start coming out.

Or BTC has another issue and something like LTC or PPC takes over - unlikely but you never know.

My numbers say... 150 mil... but if a new player jumps into the ring it could be double that.

[aqrulesms]

It would be approximately an increase of 0 hashes/second because BFL will never ship.

 

[trance1999]

I posted my math on this on my blog. The post is a little long but it shows my method for figuring it out.  Of course (since I ordered a BFL 50ghs) the whole thing assumes that the butterfly lab units will eventually ship. I think they will. If they don't the hash rate won't change much. But if they do ship it changes a LOT.

http://mineshaft.me/2013/04/initial-roi-estimates/

[creativex]

I posted my math on this on my blog. The post is a little long but it shows my method for figuring it out.  Of course (since I ordered a BFL 50ghs) the whole thing assumes that the butterfly lab units will eventually ship. I think they will. If they don't the hash rate won't change much. But if they do ship it changes a LOT.

http://mineshaft.me/2013/04/initial-roi-estimates/

Interesting read. One thing that bothered me while reading through the data presented that perhaps you could clarify. Was network hashrate added by vendors that do currently have a working product(Avalon & ASICMiner) taken into account?