Bitcoin Forum
November 24, 2017, 06:31:41 AM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.15.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
Author Topic: If anything, we are here:  (Read 4114 times)
YoYa
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 760


(👁 ͜ʖ👁) Hello there!


View Profile
April 12, 2013, 08:56:56 AM
 #21



i'm going to take you seriously and answer you honestly, passing no judgment in between. it seems many here are incapable of that.

let's take your hypothesis for granted, and explore the possibilities:

your claim causes one to zoom way out on the price picture, meaning that the timescales that we are dealing with are huge. if you consider the time scale, the whole life of bitcoin amounts to one half of the total length of the time axis (conveniently unmarked). the (failed) double top formation occurs at about 3/4. this means that we may not see the biggest bitcoin bubble for an order of years.

while many expect to see serious price action tomorrow, the movement right now is much less vertical than the large 'knife' that fell from $266. this lends credence to your hypothesis because the 'bear trap' is a smooth slide. if we see more knives tomorrow, however, this would break your model and weigh the evidence back in favor of 'burst bubble'

further, even if your scaled-out vision is correct, the magnitude of that bear trap most certainly varies in practice as opposed to the ideal curve. depending on the resistance on the way down, we could even dip below the old high of $31.50 on the medium term and it would still fit your model. "mean growth" for bitcoin is minuscule compared to recent growth.

Remember, bitcoin has been worth single digits or less for about half of its lifetime. Before 2013, bitcoin had only ever been worth more than $20 for two brief weeks, during a period generally known to all as an aberration.

-arepo

Thank you for the response, and perhaps im reading your reply incorrectly, but are you assuming that I created that graph?

I did not, I took it from one of the numerous threads I've seen it posted in (without the green arrow I drew over it), and it was not created for bitcoin, just bubbles in general. This is a thread essentially discrediting it.

You most certainly are reading it incorrectly, that Graph is known as the Gartner hype cycle and is very well known around here. It is not meant to correlate with anything, rather serve as a hypothetical example of an technology life cycle. It shouldn't be taken literally, hence it can't really be discredited, rather those trying to superimpose it on the current market graphs are discrediting themselves.

[̲̅$̲̅(̲̅ ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°̲̅)̲̅$̲̅] From time to time i exchange e-currencies/trade like Skrill>Paypal>Remittances>Pokerstars>Amazon GC>PaySafecard to Bitcoin. [̲̅$̲̅(̲̅ ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°̲̅)̲̅$̲̅]
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1511505101
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1511505101

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1511505101
Reply with quote  #2

1511505101
Report to moderator
1511505101
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1511505101

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1511505101
Reply with quote  #2

1511505101
Report to moderator
Ares
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238


View Profile
April 12, 2013, 09:18:06 AM
 #22



i'm going to take you seriously and answer you honestly, passing no judgment in between. it seems many here are incapable of that.

let's take your hypothesis for granted, and explore the possibilities:

your claim causes one to zoom way out on the price picture, meaning that the timescales that we are dealing with are huge. if you consider the time scale, the whole life of bitcoin amounts to one half of the total length of the time axis (conveniently unmarked). the (failed) double top formation occurs at about 3/4. this means that we may not see the biggest bitcoin bubble for an order of years.

while many expect to see serious price action tomorrow, the movement right now is much less vertical than the large 'knife' that fell from $266. this lends credence to your hypothesis because the 'bear trap' is a smooth slide. if we see more knives tomorrow, however, this would break your model and weigh the evidence back in favor of 'burst bubble'

further, even if your scaled-out vision is correct, the magnitude of that bear trap most certainly varies in practice as opposed to the ideal curve. depending on the resistance on the way down, we could even dip below the old high of $31.50 on the medium term and it would still fit your model. "mean growth" for bitcoin is minuscule compared to recent growth.

Remember, bitcoin has been worth single digits or less for about half of its lifetime. Before 2013, bitcoin had only ever been worth more than $20 for two brief weeks, during a period generally known to all as an aberration.

-arepo

Thank you for the response, and perhaps im reading your reply incorrectly, but are you assuming that I created that graph?

I did not, I took it from one of the numerous threads I've seen it posted in (without the green arrow I drew over it), and it was not created for bitcoin, just bubbles in general. This is a thread essentially discrediting it.

You most certainly are reading it incorrectly, that Graph is known as the Gartner hype cycle and is very well known around here. It is not meant to correlate with anything, rather serve as a hypothetical example of an technology life cycle. It shouldn't be taken literally, hence it can't really be discredited, rather those trying to superimpose it on the current market graphs are discrediting themselves.

Thanks, I figured the last sentence in the OP was the most applicable (though i'm sure the graph can serve some purposes in relation to bitcoin). Also when i said "this is a thread essentially discrediting it", i meant "discrediting relating bitcoin to being at the point of fear in the graph", which a lot of people here seem to be doing, and you seem to agree is inappropriate (correct me if I'm wrong).
wopwop
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 252



View Profile
April 12, 2013, 09:30:09 AM
 #23

if anything, you're stupid holding on to imaginary profits and fame
Fame? Who is talking about fame?
well he wanted to be a multimillionaire so much so his mom could be proud of him and his friends would be soooo jaleous and praise him for his wisdom for the rest of his life

Someone's bitter over selling at a loss. Did you dump those $230 coins yet?
I dont have any coins ruski buddy, you know that <333333

IM BUYING BUY BUY BUY fundamentals is STRONG BUYYYYY
Akka
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1162



View Profile
April 12, 2013, 09:38:16 AM
 #24

No, we are really at Fear/Capitulation.

This was probably one of the quickest bubbles in history.

Media attention phase was pretty obvious. I had a Google Alert for Press About Bitcoin. It was usually triggered 1-2 Times a day. In the last 2 Weeks, I had to turn it off because there were 100ts of articles every day.

Hell, even I had an TV Interview (was due to air yesterday, but they canceled it for obvious reasons)

But don't worry, Bitcoin is not ready yet to go Mainstream. This will give us a little more time to build an actual working Bitcoin economy and the next Time the Speculators will have a lot harder time to get our coins.Because more people will have realized what their potential is.

That many of the people here didn't want to part with their coins, is IMO one of the reasons the Bubble did go up so fast in the first place.

All previous versions of currency will no longer be supported as of this update
XxionxX
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 254


Digital money you say?


View Profile WWW
April 12, 2013, 09:44:08 AM
 #25


I am on the fence, I think we are either in a bear trap or a bull trap. I just haven't figured out which yet :p

Proudhon is permantly stuck in despair though XD

FAP Turbo 2.0, the FOREX trading robot which also trades bitcoin!

I had to link it because I love the name. Seriously, that is the real name.
YoYa
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 760


(👁 ͜ʖ👁) Hello there!


View Profile
April 12, 2013, 11:18:12 AM
 #26

Thanks, I figured the last sentence in the OP was the most applicable (though i'm sure the graph can serve some purposes in relation to bitcoin). Also when i said "this is a thread essentially discrediting it", i meant "discrediting relating bitcoin to being at the point of fear in the graph", which a lot of people here seem to be doing, and you seem to agree is inappropriate (correct me if I'm wrong).

Yep, very much so. There are lot's of thoughts out there on how industries/technologies mature, of which the hype cycle is a more specific one. I wish I was more knowledgeable to point you to specific studies, but suffice to say that in most cases, the time period for it all to play out is over decades as opposed to days hence why the gartner hype cycle is so inappropriate in the current context.

A good example outside of bitcoin would be the growth of the web, the dot com boom being akin to the bitcoin bubbles. It still took ten years and a lot of work after the dot com boom to bring the web to where it is today, and now there is no gold rush toward web companies despite them being extremely mature and profitable. Prior to dot com, there were other iterations of IT bubbles, and it's worth considering what it has taken to get computing to such a mature stage. People chase the dream of getting rich quickly resulting in bubbles just as the one we've seen, it's only those who seek riches slowly that truly profit. Early adopters, Dell and Microsoft shareholders are effectively statistical aberrations akin to winning the lottery and as such shouldn't really be held up as examples of how to get ahead, but merely an acknowledgement of the random probability of being in the right place at the right time.

[̲̅$̲̅(̲̅ ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°̲̅)̲̅$̲̅] From time to time i exchange e-currencies/trade like Skrill>Paypal>Remittances>Pokerstars>Amazon GC>PaySafecard to Bitcoin. [̲̅$̲̅(̲̅ ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°̲̅)̲̅$̲̅]
ElectricMucus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1568


Drama Junkie


View Profile
April 12, 2013, 11:19:57 AM
 #27

We are still at bull trap, just look at the posts if you sold already. (I know you can't think straight if you don't)

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
HappyBitCoinUser
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 182



View Profile
April 12, 2013, 11:25:49 AM
 #28

tarrant_01
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 545



View Profile
April 12, 2013, 11:30:04 AM
 #29

Bitcoin was just on CNN talking about the crash for a short while.

1P95gCUCw3Tjb7yyoYtW3ARZZQyTpFgk6H
ManBearPig
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 350


"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"


View Profile WWW
April 12, 2013, 12:25:33 PM
 #30

Oh I think the next stop is Despair.

It's a nice chart, one every student should study at some point in their education as it relates to a lot more schools of thought than mere economic ones.

The thing is, it's fractal -- it repeats itself on different scales.

You can beat it to fit almost anything but yes of course we're seeing it live, it's fun.

Well, this is your captain speaking, if we make it out alive I do hope you choose to fly BitAir again Smiley

I tweet crypto nonsense: https://twitter.com/DunningKruger_
herzmeister
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile WWW
April 12, 2013, 12:31:25 PM
 #31

That's right, we're both in bear trap and in bull trap, we're everywhere and nowhere, everything is fractal.  Smiley

https://localbitcoins.com/?ch=80k | BTC: 1LJvmd1iLi199eY7EVKtNQRW3LqZi8ZmmB
Crypt_Current
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 686


Shame on everything; regret nothing.


View Profile
April 12, 2013, 12:38:51 PM
 #32

That's right, where both in bear trap and in bull trap, where everywhere and nowhere, everything is fractal.  Smiley

I see this as fractal as well; really depends on what time scale you look at.  Long term -- bear trap is now.

10% off at CampBX for LIFE:  https://campbx.com/main.php?r=C9a5izBQ5vq  ----  Authorized BitVoucher MEGA reseller (& BTC donations appreciated):  https://bitvoucher.co/affl/1HkvK8o8WWDpCTSQGnek7DH9gT1LWeV5s3/
LTC:  LRL6vb6XBRrEEifB73DiEiYZ9vbRy99H41  NMC:  NGb2spdTGpWj8THCPyCainaXenwDhAW1ZT
Dargo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1820



View Profile
April 12, 2013, 12:45:18 PM
 #33

I think the despair phase is yet to come, but given how fast this bubble popped, we could reach despair by early next week.
HappyBitCoinUser
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 182



View Profile
April 12, 2013, 12:50:03 PM
 #34

I think the despair phase is yet to come, but given how fast this bubble popped, we could reach despair by early next week.

||bit
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 644


View Profile
April 12, 2013, 12:56:01 PM
 #35

How many institutional investors do you know (or heard of) that are invested in bitcoin ?


There was $10,000,0000 to $20,000,0000 of trading daily for a month. That probably isn't the average neighbor that heard about bitcoin.
Also, there were many narrow times (i.e. 5 to 15 minutes windows) where a $1 million trade would occur in the positive direction.

Bitcoin Magazine (excerpt):

And how about the recent frontpage article in the Financial Times? The relevant passage: ”Some finance industry entrepreneurs have leapt at the opportunity. Exante, a Malta-based asset manager, set up a Bitcoin fund last year that was largely intended as a fun punt. Wealthy investors each put in $1,000 when Bitcoins were trading at $13 on the understanding they could lose the original investment. Exante predicted that public and media interest would take off when Bitcoins were trading at $100. Managing partner Gatis Eglitis claims they are now getting 20 calls a day from large asset managers looking to invest up to $100m.
- source: http://bitcoinmagazine.com/trace-mayer-on-fox-business-why-bitcoin-is-just-getting-started/


....and consider the Winklevoss twins (FaceBook money) prior/continued involvement:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/11/as-big-investors-emerge-bitcoin-gets-ready-for-its-close-up/
Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!