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Author Topic: If anything, we are here:  (Read 4121 times)
Ares
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April 12, 2013, 06:54:57 AM
 #1

Edit: Note that I did not make this graph, with the exception of the green arrow.





I see this image posted in a lot of threads, so here's why I think people mistake us for being after the "New Paradigm" stage.

Firstly, if we look at the background, the first sell-off happens in the midst of the Institutional Investors phase. Sounds about where we're at with institutional investors, doesn't it? Seeing as the institutional investor phase ends and the public phase begins after it, to say we are at the popping is to say that we have exhausted the institutional investors, which we clearly haven't (barely scratched the surface).

Secondly, you'll notice the pop happens after the Public phase ends. Even if you are going to argue we are past institutional investors, there is no way you could argue we are past the stage of Public awareness. I have spoken recently with many credible professionals in the field who haven't even heard of bitcoin, nevermind the general public. This solidifies my arrow because if you look at the X axis, the first sell-off happens during the awareness phase, clearly where we're at now.

All of this, of course, is assuming we give credibility to the graph within the world of bitcoin, which it may very well not have, thus rendering the whole thing meaningless.
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damnek
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April 12, 2013, 07:03:47 AM
 #2

We're at capitulation.
Ares
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April 12, 2013, 07:04:25 AM
 #3

We're at capitulation.

oh
labestiol
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April 12, 2013, 07:07:02 AM
 #4

How many institutional investors do you know (or heard of) that are invested in bitcoin ?

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NikolaTesla
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April 12, 2013, 07:12:24 AM
 #5

The Winklevosses are invested Smiley

Don't steal from them though; it's against the Harvard student handbook!

Do as thou wilt shall be the whole of the law.
Ares
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April 12, 2013, 07:13:20 AM
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How many institutional investors do you know (or heard of) that are invested in bitcoin ?

Exactly
Krabby
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April 12, 2013, 07:13:29 AM
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What has happened is actually quite similar I must admit.

arepo
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this statement is false


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April 12, 2013, 07:21:04 AM
 #8



i'm going to take you seriously and answer you honestly, passing no judgment in between. it seems many here are incapable of that.

let's take your hypothesis for granted, and explore the possibilities:

your claim causes one to zoom way out on the price picture, meaning that the timescales that we are dealing with are huge. if you consider the time scale, the whole life of bitcoin amounts to one half of the total length of the time axis (conveniently unmarked). the (failed) double top formation occurs at about 3/4. this means that we may not see the biggest bitcoin bubble for an order of years.

while many expect to see serious price action tomorrow, the movement right now is much less vertical than the large 'knife' that fell from $266. this lends credence to your hypothesis because the 'bear trap' is a smooth slide. if we see more knives tomorrow, however, this would break your model and weigh the evidence back in favor of 'burst bubble'

further, even if your scaled-out vision is correct, the magnitude of that bear trap most certainly varies in practice as opposed to the ideal curve. depending on the resistance on the way down, we could even dip below the old high of $31.50 on the medium term and it would still fit your model. "mean growth" for bitcoin is minuscule compared to recent growth.

Remember, bitcoin has been worth single digits or less for about half of its lifetime. Before 2013, bitcoin had only ever been worth more than $20 for two brief weeks, during a period generally known to all as an aberration.

-arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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pera
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April 12, 2013, 07:26:05 AM
 #9

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_market_hypothesis

キタ━━━━(゚∀゚)━━━━ッ!!
Ares
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April 12, 2013, 07:33:47 AM
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i'm going to take you seriously and answer you honestly, passing no judgment in between. it seems many here are incapable of that.

let's take your hypothesis for granted, and explore the possibilities:

your claim causes one to zoom way out on the price picture, meaning that the timescales that we are dealing with are huge. if you consider the time scale, the whole life of bitcoin amounts to one half of the total length of the time axis (conveniently unmarked). the (failed) double top formation occurs at about 3/4. this means that we may not see the biggest bitcoin bubble for an order of years.

while many expect to see serious price action tomorrow, the movement right now is much less vertical than the large 'knife' that fell from $266. this lends credence to your hypothesis because the 'bear trap' is a smooth slide. if we see more knives tomorrow, however, this would break your model and weigh the evidence back in favor of 'burst bubble'

further, even if your scaled-out vision is correct, the magnitude of that bear trap most certainly varies in practice as opposed to the ideal curve. depending on the resistance on the way down, we could even dip below the old high of $31.50 on the medium term and it would still fit your model. "mean growth" for bitcoin is minuscule compared to recent growth.

Remember, bitcoin has been worth single digits or less for about half of its lifetime. Before 2013, bitcoin had only ever been worth more than $20 for two brief weeks, during a period generally known to all as an aberration.

-arepo

Thank you for the response, and perhaps im reading your reply incorrectly, but are you assuming that I created that graph?

I did not, I took it from one of the numerous threads I've seen it posted in (without the green arrow I drew over it), and it was not created for bitcoin, just bubbles in general. This is a thread essentially discrediting it.
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April 12, 2013, 07:37:29 AM
 #11

We are somewhere around "Fear" and "Capitulation" - mostly closer to "Fear" - long way down.

BTC: 1G4FWK6U3qQb2ikgdcYZovLzyQ7xmWotBP  LTC: LUnQFuhQKNjhrsK4HSdcsn6Bf3wcT3tW2y  DVC: 1EKz74j7xNBYunJ77wQVD8DE843PwZaRFF
My reputation thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=183806.0
Shibaji's Your Man In USA Service: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=191303.msg1980889#msg1980889
Gordonium
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April 12, 2013, 07:41:35 AM
 #12

Absolutely right. First institutional investors are just beginning to come into BTC just read the new Techcrunch article. Almost nobody has even heard about Bitcoin yet, it is just so easy to loose perspective in a forum like this. Bitcoin price will be 500$/BTC by the end of year, probably higher.

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lebing
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April 12, 2013, 07:49:00 AM
 #13

How many institutional investors do you know (or heard of) that are invested in bitcoin ?

Colas & convergex group are clearly invested & telling their clients to invest a % of their portfolio. This is just one guy on TV (bloomberg). Its pretty clear this is not an isolated case...

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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April 12, 2013, 07:50:19 AM
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How many institutional investors do you know (or heard of) that are invested in bitcoin ?

Colas & convergex group are clearly invested & telling their clients to invest a % of their portfolio. This is just one guy on TV (bloomberg). Its pretty clear this is not an isolated case...

+ The malta hedge fund investors as well, they have 80,000 coins.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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April 12, 2013, 07:50:25 AM
 #15

How many institutional investors do you know (or heard of) that are invested in bitcoin ?

Colas & convergex group are clearly invested & telling their clients to invest a % of their portfolio. This is just one guy on TV (bloomberg). Its pretty clear this is not an isolated case...
This, more strong hands joining the market.
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April 12, 2013, 07:51:54 AM
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if anything, you're stupid holding on to imaginary profits and fame
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April 12, 2013, 07:55:49 AM
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if anything, you're stupid holding on to imaginary profits and fame
Fame? Who is talking about fame?
wopwop
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April 12, 2013, 07:57:33 AM
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if anything, you're stupid holding on to imaginary profits and fame
Fame? Who is talking about fame?
well he wanted to be a multimillionaire so much so his mom could be proud of him and his friends would be soooo jaleous and praise him for his wisdom for the rest of his life
Ares
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April 12, 2013, 08:00:24 AM
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if anything, you're stupid holding on to imaginary profits and fame
Fame? Who is talking about fame?
well he wanted to be a multimillionaire so much so his mom could be proud of him and his friends would be soooo jaleous and praise him for his wisdom for the rest of his life
Who are you referring to, and what exactly are you talking about?
ruski
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April 12, 2013, 08:49:28 AM
 #20

if anything, you're stupid holding on to imaginary profits and fame
Fame? Who is talking about fame?
well he wanted to be a multimillionaire so much so his mom could be proud of him and his friends would be soooo jaleous and praise him for his wisdom for the rest of his life

Someone's bitter over selling at a loss. Did you dump those $230 coins yet?
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