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Author Topic: Perhaps the crash was only a correction  (Read 2803 times)
afbitcoins
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April 12, 2013, 09:32:17 AM
 #1

Doesn't look quite so bad on a 3 month log chart



The red arrow indicates the peak of course, but also the moment we hit the top of the steep channel we were in.
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Jaques
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April 12, 2013, 09:36:12 AM
 #2

if it goes up (and over previous high somewhen in not too far future) from here you may call it so ...  Wink

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April 12, 2013, 09:37:13 AM
 #3

moment we hit the top of the steep channel we were in

Roll Eyes

Because you made the steep channel x width to accommodate for the peak.

I'll see you all at $15/btc in about 2 months.

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April 12, 2013, 09:37:57 AM
 #4

if it goes up (and over previous high somewhen in not too far future) from here you may call it so ...  Wink



Time will tell. If it is then this is a darn good moment to pick up some cheap bitcoins. Smiley
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April 12, 2013, 09:40:50 AM
 #5

Price i still finding its equilibrium after Gox reopening. But I don't see anything pointing for it to go up...
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April 12, 2013, 09:41:10 AM
 #6

moment we hit the top of the steep channel we were in

Roll Eyes

Because you made the steep channel x width to accommodate for the peak.

I'll see you all at $15/btc in about 2 months.

I drew in a parallel to the channel equal distance under the old channel out of curiosity to see if there might have been support there. It doesn't have much significance, just testing ideas.

I'm looking for support near the bottom of the previous channel at the moment, or failing that then the original channel. If we can stay above that, then the bull run still looks intact.
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April 12, 2013, 09:48:31 AM
 #7

translation:

"perhaps my pipi isn't really that small and i'm actually well hung"




ok that was my last one to learn it off bb


Would be the other way round wouldn't it? "Perhaps my pipi isn't really as big as I thought"
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April 12, 2013, 10:15:39 AM
 #8

Sorry to repeat myself:

$83 or so was on March 23rd an inflection point where we kicked into a higher rate of exponential growth.

This is where things got unsustainable and people started screaming "Bubble!" or if they were doing so already, shouting it even louder.

If we see the price dip and gravitate loosely around this point in the next few days we would be on a previous upward trend which stretched from Jan 9th to March 23rd and to some degree, beyond.

Bear in mind we are seeing a decent-sized bid wall at $76 and that the ask wall isn't so much a wall as a gentle ramp.

Pick your entry point, gird your loins and ride this up.

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April 12, 2013, 10:36:00 AM
 #9

Sorry to repeat myself:

$83 or so was on March 23rd an inflection point where we kicked into a higher rate of exponential growth.

This is where things got unsustainable and people started screaming "Bubble!" or if they were doing so already, shouting it even louder.

If we see the price dip and gravitate loosely around this point in the next few days we would be on a previous upward trend which stretched from Jan 9th to March 23rd and to some degree, beyond.

Bear in mind we are seeing a decent-sized bid wall at $76 and that the ask wall isn't so much a wall as a gentle ramp.

Pick your entry point, gird your loins and ride this up.

That's exactly what I was thinking the whole time. I just missed my exit point, because I predicted it at 400-600. Now, all I can do is hold Wink.
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April 12, 2013, 12:22:05 PM
 #10

Doesn't look quite so bad on a 3 month log chart



The red arrow indicates the peak of course, but also the moment we hit the top of the steep channel we were in.

We're now at the bottom of the least steep trendchannel, correct? Let's hope for a strong rebound Smiley

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afbitcoins
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April 12, 2013, 01:12:12 PM
 #11

Doesn't look quite so bad on a 3 month log chart



The red arrow indicates the peak of course, but also the moment we hit the top of the steep channel we were in.

We're now at the bottom of the least steep trendchannel, correct? Let's hope for a strong rebound Smiley

I can't get the chart site working, bad gateway, timeouts etc, so hard to know what the price is just now, Clark Moody site says it dipped down to $55, but now is around $70?

If thats the case looks like we fell below the bottom of the least steep trend line. Which isn't good from the bullish perspective. But factoring in that MtGox has totally screwed up by closing 'to let the market cool down' and the height from which we fell might allow a little overshoot. If we can get back into the first exponential channel I'd be thinking the bull run might yet be intact.
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April 12, 2013, 02:05:13 PM
 #12

Updated chart



Down to the last trend line. Although we've overshot below that one too, looks like price is trying to find support there, will it succeed?
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April 12, 2013, 02:07:52 PM
 #13

Way to draw support lines exactly as they fit you.
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April 12, 2013, 02:25:58 PM
 #14

Doesn't look quite so bad on a 3 month log chart




Yeah, Im going to disagree...it looks pretty bad on that chart too.
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April 12, 2013, 02:49:34 PM
 #15

Doesn't look quite so bad on a 3 month log chart



The red arrow indicates the peak of course, but also the moment we hit the top of the steep channel we were in.
It does look "pretty bad."

But it doesn't look like the end of the world (or even Bitcoin).

The fact of the matter is that the growth before was unsustainable in the short term. Bitcoin didn't get screwed, I did (and people that bought in the $200s even more so).

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April 12, 2013, 02:53:16 PM
 #16

I've been saying forever that the price was unsustainable, but the true believers around here shouted me down constantly.  Now I think we are going to slide all the way down to singles before we see a real recovery.

Definitely not the end of btc (speculators and true believers will make sure of that) but Im pretty sure this run is done for a while.
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April 12, 2013, 05:12:31 PM
 #17

Sorry to repeat myself:

$83 or so was on March 23rd an inflection point where we kicked into a higher rate of exponential growth.

This is where things got unsustainable and people started screaming "Bubble!" or if they were doing so already, shouting it even louder.

If we see the price dip and gravitate loosely around this point in the next few days we would be on a previous upward trend which stretched from Jan 9th to March 23rd and to some degree, beyond.

Bear in mind we are seeing a decent-sized bid wall at $76 and that the ask wall isn't so much a wall as a gentle ramp.

Pick your entry point, gird your loins and ride this up.

That's exactly what I was thinking the whole time. I just missed my exit point, because I predicted it at 400-600. Now, all I can do is hold Wink.

Great minds think alike Wink

I think we will simply return to exponential growth along the original channel OP described here earlier (the black channel). As I said in the original thread, whenever we start wafting above the top of the black channel, the price becomes sensitive to any old reason to crash back down into the channel. If we correct below the bottom of the channel it will be time to worry.

Until then, I'll be yawning like a pro.
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April 12, 2013, 05:24:35 PM
 #18

You can't draw support / resistance lines on log scale charts. Try linear chart...
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this statement is false


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April 12, 2013, 05:33:27 PM
 #19

You can't draw support / resistance lines on log scale charts. Try linear chart...
[SNIPPED HUMONGOUS IMAGE]

stop spamming that worthless chart. it's taken completely out of context and has no predictive power.

also, why can't you draw trend lines on log scales?

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
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April 12, 2013, 06:05:12 PM
 #20

You can't draw support / resistance lines on log scale charts. Try linear chart...
[SNIPPED HUMONGOUS IMAGE]

stop spamming that worthless chart. it's taken completely out of context and has no predictive power.

also, why can't you draw trend lines on log scales?

THIS

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