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Author Topic: Price seems stable now...  (Read 7137 times)
dserrano5
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June 16, 2011, 06:45:43 PM
 #21

Care to show something useful with a 3-month linear one?

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tsvekric
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June 16, 2011, 06:47:23 PM
 #22

artificial prices, by definition, do not exist in a free market.
billyjoeallen
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June 16, 2011, 06:58:55 PM
 #23

Awesome, thats exactly what we need! Price is stable from $19-20

A stable price is welcome, but we must remember that difficulty went up 50% yesterday.  The price didn't budge.  There's no reason to believe the price will go higher when difficulty again goes up by 50% in a week's time.  Within the space of around 2 weeks a miner will be making less than half what they used to.

So? I'm looking forward to all the cheap second hand video cards that will be for sale. I am building a flight simulator :-)

Seriously, The average profitability of mining should be zero. Inefficient miners should be losing money, because they are wasting electricity. The "evil" speculators have stabilized the market for now, and that's a good thing. Sustainable long-term growth requires less volatility. Entrepreneurs need to be able to make reasonable and reasonably accurate assumptions about future demand.

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d.james
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June 16, 2011, 08:34:13 PM
 #24

just broke the 19 barrier

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Dobrodav
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June 16, 2011, 08:37:01 PM
 #25

If 18 will broken, we can expect  way down to 15. Interesting.

We will  meet in not-so-distant future.
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Edward50
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June 16, 2011, 09:46:22 PM
 #26

Yes it is finally coming down. It does not make sense at $20. There is no value currenctly in owning this currency other than the long term potential if it does ever make a valid currency.

If you are willing to wait some years and hold it as an investment, it should be priced less than $10 dollars because of the high risk of it failing.

Who ever pays $20 or higher now as a long term investment is way overpaying because of all the risk.

It should keep falling down to less than $10.


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dserrano5
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June 16, 2011, 09:54:07 PM
 #27

Funny. Two weeks ago everyone was talking about $100, $400, $1k...

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June 16, 2011, 09:56:25 PM
 #28

Yes it is finally coming down. It does not make sense at $20. There is no value currenctly in owning this currency other than the long term potential if it does ever make a valid currency.

If you are willing to wait some years and hold it as an investment, it should be priced less than $10 dollars because of the high risk of it failing.

Who ever pays $20 or higher now as a long term investment is way overpaying because of all the risk.

It should keep falling down to less than $10.



Less than $10 with the current difficulty lvl ?
 
Remember that miners are the biggest source of bitcoins in this moment. I'm sure they aren't willing to lose cash.

Bitcoin is the future !
gonzas144
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June 16, 2011, 10:24:24 PM
 #29

Yes it is finally coming down. It does not make sense at $20. There is no value currenctly in owning this currency other than the long term potential if it does ever make a valid currency.

If you are willing to wait some years and hold it as an investment, it should be priced less than $10 dollars because of the high risk of it failing.

Who ever pays $20 or higher now as a long term investment is way overpaying because of all the risk.

It should keep falling down to less than $10.



Less than $10 with the current difficulty lvl ?
 
Remember that miners are the biggest source of bitcoins in this moment. I'm sure they aren't willing to lose cash.

Miners don't control Supply / Demand they are just affected by the consequences.
Freakin
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June 16, 2011, 11:01:18 PM
 #30

Yes it is finally coming down. It does not make sense at $20. There is no value currenctly in owning this currency other than the long term potential if it does ever make a valid currency.

If you are willing to wait some years and hold it as an investment, it should be priced less than $10 dollars because of the high risk of it failing.

Who ever pays $20 or higher now as a long term investment is way overpaying because of all the risk.

It should keep falling down to less than $10.



Less than $10 with the current difficulty lvl ?
 
Remember that miners are the biggest source of bitcoins in this moment. I'm sure they aren't willing to lose cash.

it's not up to them...
andes
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June 16, 2011, 11:06:05 PM
 #31

Funny. Two weeks ago everyone was talking about $100, $400, $1k...
I still stick with these numbers in a couple of months timeframe. I assume a geometric growth doubling its price each month until reaching roughly 1K at the end of the year. I base my guessing in a viral adoption, and in the enormous amounts of fiat currency floating arround the world and ready for investments, and the low yield of alternatives for landing that extra cash.
Matarael
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June 16, 2011, 11:27:55 PM
 #32

I still stick with these numbers in a couple of months timeframe. I assume a geometric growth doubling its price each month until reaching roughly 1K at the end of the year. I base my guessing in a viral adoption, and in the enormous amounts of fiat currency floating arround the world and ready for investments, and the low yield of alternatives for landing that extra cash.

My thoughts on institutional investment in btc is that it will be significantly slower than the geometric price progression we've seen. Problems with liquidity, relative stability of prices, and security of investment from hacks and market DDOS may be keeping larger players away. Anyone investing in BTC from an institutional perspective would be more likely to be risk adverse. Any individuals with larger investments would also be less likely, logically, to put large amounts of money into btc. If the price rise slows over the next few months, stability of price occurs and security of investment are fixed we should see a greater influx of investors.

It's the risk in BTC that's keeping big money away.
onesalt
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June 17, 2011, 12:38:42 AM
 #33

Oh god! Now you've made this thread the price of btc is crashing faster than the world trade center did after the government blew it up in their false flag operation to invade iraq!! fuck!!
zdmas
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June 17, 2011, 12:42:48 AM
 #34

Oh god! Now you've made this thread the price of btc is crashing faster than the world trade center did after the government blew it up in their false flag operation to invade iraq!! fuck!!

Firstly, you're crazy, secondly, it's hopped back up to 17.36. I made a nice buy at the low point and sold just now, nice instant cash.
andes
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June 17, 2011, 12:44:43 AM
 #35

I still stick with these numbers in a couple of months timeframe. I assume a geometric growth doubling its price each month until reaching roughly 1K at the end of the year. I base my guessing in a viral adoption, and in the enormous amounts of fiat currency floating arround the world and ready for investments, and the low yield of alternatives for landing that extra cash.

My thoughts on institutional investment in btc is that it will be significantly slower than the geometric price progression we've seen. Problems with liquidity, relative stability of prices, and security of investment from hacks and market DDOS may be keeping larger players away. Anyone investing in BTC from an institutional perspective would be more likely to be risk adverse. Any individuals with larger investments would also be less likely, logically, to put large amounts of money into btc. If the price rise slows over the next few months, stability of price occurs and security of investment are fixed we should see a greater influx of investors.

It's the risk in BTC that's keeping big money away.

I agree with you, but I made a rough calculation that with 1 BN dollars coming to Bitcoin (this is really nothing in a global scale) we could very well see $500 price. Be cautious not to confuse market capitalization with total amount of money put into Bitcoins, as not all bitcoins are sold into the market at any given market price, but only a small fraction. Many bitcoins remain out of the market so far, or have been out of the market for weeks, stored in miners and early adopters saving wallets.

Just to give you an example, I am not going to sell my bitcoins before $1000-1500 unless I discover some fatal flaw in Bitcoin. I am here for the lon run, partly to support Bitcoin, and partly beacuse I believe we are at the very start of a big growth ahead. If it goes down I will accept that, even if I loose all my money.
hello_good_sir
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June 17, 2011, 01:33:07 AM
 #36

As I discussed in another post there are four potential groups of bitcoin users.  The geometric growth that we saw was the result of adoption by the second demographic: libertarian engineers.  We have achieved significant penetration in that market.  Next we have to get young hip people with fancy smart phones who eat at ethnic restaurants and buy things online.  Once we breach the demographic we'll see geometric growth again, and the price will soar into the hundreds, maybe thousands.  After that market is penetrated we'll see linear growth, as old people (who don't use bitcoin) die and are replaced by children who do.

However until we can hook that demographic we are going to see the price drop gradually.  People who need their money now will sell to people already in the market.  We aren't getting any new bitcoin users until bitcoin is a lot more polished and user friendly.  This requires new clients, smart phone support, and a decimal point shift.  This might take a long, long time.  However I believe that it will be done.  Right now many people are significantly invested in bitcoin.  There are people who stand to be millionaires if bitcoin succeeds.  I can see these people putting time and money towards making bitcoin succeed.  Those of us who are smaller players can play smaller parts.  We just need to penetrate into the next market and we'll all have money, until then we have a bunch of poker chips.

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imperi
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June 17, 2011, 02:09:28 AM
 #37

Next we have to get young hip people with fancy smart phones who eat at ethnic restaurants and buy things online.  Once we breach the demographic we'll see geometric growth again, and the price will soar into the hundreds, maybe thousands. 

I'd say I'm more of this type, although I'm an engineer. I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing for the Feds, and governments of most countries, to regulate money. However, I do see the explosive growth potential for Bitcoins.
Babylon
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June 17, 2011, 04:38:56 AM
 #38

Yes it is finally coming down. It does not make sense at $20. There is no value currenctly in owning this currency other than the long term potential if it does ever make a valid currency.

If you are willing to wait some years and hold it as an investment, it should be priced less than $10 dollars because of the high risk of it failing.

Who ever pays $20 or higher now as a long term investment is way overpaying because of all the risk.

It should keep falling down to less than $10.



Silk Road gives it value.

RomertL
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June 17, 2011, 04:58:30 AM
 #39

Funny. Two weeks ago everyone was talking about $100, $400, $1k...
I still stick with these numbers in a couple of months timeframe. I assume a geometric growth doubling its price each month until reaching roughly 1K at the end of the year. I base my guessing in a viral adoption, and in the enormous amounts of fiat currency floating arround the world and ready for investments, and the low yield of alternatives for landing that extra cash.

Impossible to say at this point were it will go. Long-term depends on its real value as currency, that is, what you can actually buy with it. And that value is probably a lot lower than the current market value at the moment. If it ever gets anything close to mainstream, most guys on this forum would probably get rich. If it continues as a "geek-currency" you can use to pay for web-hosting and mining-rigs and such, the market-price will probably go down quite a bit. Only thing I feel pretty sure about is that it will never die completely.

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Cluster2k
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June 17, 2011, 05:43:28 AM
 #40

$16 and falling on MtGox as I write this.  The 'island of stability' around $19 to $20 didn't last too long.  Those 25k stolen BTCs being unloaded today after being laundered over the last couple of days?  Dead Cat Bounce has had its run? ($30 -> $10 -> $20 -> sub $10 if that's the case).  Interesting times.

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