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Author Topic: Price seems stable now...  (Read 7133 times)
tonto
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June 15, 2011, 07:30:18 PM
 #1

Price seems stable around $19.
 
Now someone lower it down to about 10 so I can buy a couple more pls. Smiley

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June 16, 2011, 08:19:40 AM
 #2

Awesome, thats exactly what we need! Price is stable from $19-20

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June 16, 2011, 08:40:21 AM
 #3

Awesome, thats exactly what we need! Price is stable from $19-20

A stable price is welcome, but we must remember that difficulty went up 50% yesterday.  The price didn't budge.  There's no reason to believe the price will go higher when difficulty again goes up by 50% in a week's time.  Within the space of around 2 weeks a miner will be making less than half what they used to.

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June 16, 2011, 08:45:23 AM
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Awesome, thats exactly what we need! Price is stable from $19-20

A stable price is welcome, but we must remember that difficulty went up 50% yesterday.  The price didn't budge.  There's no reason to believe the price will go higher when difficulty again goes up by 50% in a week's time.  Within the space of around 2 weeks a miner will be making less than half what they used to.

Yup. Its supply and demand. Some miners will go bankrupt while others will stay in business.

But in the bigger picture we NEED the price to be stable. I'd say no more than 3-5% change over the course of a YEAR. If the price is too volatile then it is difficult to run a business.

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June 16, 2011, 09:08:02 AM
 #5

Price seems stable around $19.

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June 16, 2011, 09:15:44 AM
 #6

I hope you are right. That would be great!

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June 16, 2011, 11:12:34 AM
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The price can be stable olny if the difficulty is not changing, we are most likely going to see another +60% increse at the next step.

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June 16, 2011, 02:14:33 PM
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This is really really scary.
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June 16, 2011, 02:35:34 PM
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I don't know if the market is attracting more miners but it does seem that those that have already started mining keep bring new capacity on line as they can afford it.  I don't know much about economics, but it would seem that if prices stay steady and market depth, trade volume, and liquidity double (and/or stably increase), then this will make it easyer for online merchants to accept bitcoin.  Mining will adjust accordingly.    Hopefully someone more knowledgeable than I can give a good analysis.  Let me know where I'm mistaken.
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June 16, 2011, 02:59:20 PM
 #10

Mining should be more or less independent from the actual market long-term.  The amount of ghashes should go up or down in response to the current exchange rate and difficulty levels.  The only direct impact mining should have on price is when a ton of new equipment goes online in the middle of one difficulty cycle such that the 2016 blocks are used up way faster than 6 per hour, which temporarily increases supply and should suppress the price a little.  Once the difficulty adjusts to that though it goes back to normal.

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June 16, 2011, 04:34:35 PM
 #11

It's stable because no big sells nor big buys were made recently. Granted, the longer it stays stable, the bigger a buy/sell would need to be for prices to actually budge.

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June 16, 2011, 04:37:52 PM
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This is really really scary.

it is, a bit.

it's so obviously artificial.

the joys of an unregulated market: keeps you on your toes, doesn't it?
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June 16, 2011, 04:43:23 PM
 #13


it's so obviously artificial.


Of course it is, we had artificial rally, artificial correction and now the stability is also artificial.

It's so artificial, like a dream, when you wake up tomorrow the price will be between NILL and OMG!

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June 16, 2011, 04:45:56 PM
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Nothing artificial about it, this is how markets behave. Also this comment: 'It's stable because no big sells nor big buys were made recently. Granted, the longer it stays stable, the bigger a buy/sell would need to be for prices to actually budge.' is not the right way to look at it. Price is not moving so much because there is equal number of buys to sells. When one side gives in it will break to make a new range. Often when price breaks out of consolidation they are big moves however quickly bounce back into the range as it meets fresh supply/demand. The fact is the market is in agreement at the value of a bitcoin, untill the market tries to agree on the new value..

 Btw when you mention trap, which side do you mean for? Is it a bull trap or bear trap? Tbh if you say either one or the other you will have 50% chance of being correct.... Nobody can tell whether its going to move up or down, unless they are big investor looking to buy/sell thousands.

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June 16, 2011, 04:49:31 PM
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Nothing artificial about it, this is how markets behave. Also this comment: 'It's stable because no big sells nor big buys were made recently. Granted, the longer it stays stable, the bigger a buy/sell would need to be for prices to actually budge.' is not the right way to look at it. Price is not moving so much because there is equal number of buys to sells. When one side gives in it will break to make a new range. Often when price breaks out of consolidation they are big moves however quickly bounce back into the range as it meets fresh supply/demand. The fact is the market is in agreement at the value of a bitcoin, untill the market tries to agree on the new value..

 Btw when you mention trap, which side do you mean for? Is it a bull trap or bear trap? Tbh if you say either one or the other you will have 50% chance of being correct.... Nobody can tell whether its going to move up or down, unless they are big investor looking to buy/sell thousands.

I dont completely agree nor disagree with you.

What I do know, looking at the live data from mtgox, majority of the traffic is bot-related counter bidding and keeping the price between 19-20 margins.

I dont why why its being done cause the margins is way to small to avoid the 1.3% fee from mtgox, so maybe someone else could figure this pickle out.

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June 16, 2011, 04:53:48 PM
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Nothing artificial about it, this is how markets behave. Also this comment: 'It's stable because no big sells nor big buys were made recently. Granted, the longer it stays stable, the bigger a buy/sell would need to be for prices to actually budge.' is not the right way to look at it. Price is not moving so much because there is equal number of buys to sells. When one side gives in it will break to make a new range. Often when price breaks out of consolidation they are big moves however quickly bounce back into the range as it meets fresh supply/demand. The fact is the market is in agreement at the value of a bitcoin, untill the market tries to agree on the new value..

 Btw when you mention trap, which side do you mean for? Is it a bull trap or bear trap? Tbh if you say either one or the other you will have 50% chance of being correct.... Nobody can tell whether its going to move up or down, unless they are big investor looking to buy/sell thousands.

I dont completely agree nor disagree with you.

What I do know, looking at the live data from mtgox, majority of the traffic is bot-related counter bidding and keeping the price between 19-20 margins.

I dont why why its being done cause the margins is way to small to avoid the 1.3% fee from mtgox, so maybe someone else could figure this pickle out.

Sure, Im not looking to get into some kind of debate here of who is right or wrong, just adding my input. I think though you will find your comment still supports my original. Equal number of buys and sells, whoever it may be.

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June 16, 2011, 05:03:58 PM
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here was something I mentioned at another thread, however it seems to have played out much earlier than anticipated:

The thread is: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=14657.msg209183#msg209183
Comment made on: June 12, 2011, 07:26:02 pm
Quote
Just thought I would add my view.
The only real value of bitcoin at the moment is speculation. Everything always boils down to supply and demand. Eventually bitcoin will stabalise as the market starts to agree on the value of a bitcoin. Because it is early days, we will see massive jumps in price due to increase of market participents plus people holding onto their bitcoins selling when price looks tasty. Anyone that says there is no danger of bitcoin crashing and just going into the history books as a failed currency, should be carefull. I would however tend to agree that bitcoin is most likely here to stay, at least for the medium term. There would not even need to be an adoption of it as a currency/payment for it to sustain itself, since it has become a tradable asset.

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June 16, 2011, 05:33:20 PM
 #18

looks like there is no interest in BTC for now. What we see, is a fight between some trade bots.

We will  meet in not-so-distant future.
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June 16, 2011, 06:15:04 PM
 #19

it would seem that if prices stay steady and market depth, trade volume, and liquidity double (and/or stably increase)

Volume is not precisely "doubling"...


I dont why why its being done cause the margins is way to small to avoid the 1.3% fee from mtgox, so maybe someone else could figure this pickle out.

I don't think it's way too small for that, it's just at the limit, ie no money is being made right now.

I don't see this low activity period as something necessarily strange or bad. It's not the first time it happens (both beginning and end of May show similar patterns). Plus, the midterm trend is still intact:



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June 16, 2011, 06:36:23 PM
 #20

Oh, These logarithmic scale`s... They are so comfortable to show anything you want ...

We will  meet in not-so-distant future.
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