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Poll
Question: Have you made money by gambiling on satoshi dice?
Yes - 36 (29.3%)
No - 49 (39.8%)
Haven't played - 38 (30.9%)
Total Voters: 123

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Author Topic: Have you made money by gambling on satoshi dice?  (Read 3947 times)
aksplace
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September 16, 2013, 11:56:12 PM
 #41

great dice company highly endorsed

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dooglus
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September 17, 2013, 12:49:43 AM
 #42

the expected value ranges from -1.938 up to -4%



so at the end if you really want to bet go for the one with .91 prob to win and retire while you are ahead

The house edge is clearly listed on the site.  You've forgotten to take into account the fact that losing bets pay out a little as well.

If you adjust your calculations to take that into account, and use the actual payouts not the rounded ones, you'll see the house edge is 1.9% as advertised.

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   1% House Edge
odolvlobo
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September 17, 2013, 12:58:33 AM
 #43

A truly representative poll will show that, of the people that have played, slightly more than 50% have lost and slightly less then 50% have won.
There is no such thing as a "winning strategy", and you can only "stop while you are ahead" if you stop gambling forever.

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dooglus
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September 17, 2013, 01:36:44 AM
 #44

A truly representative poll will show that, of the people that have played, slightly more than 50% have lost and slightly less then 50% have won.

I don't think so.  Most people who have played have played more than once.  The longer you play, the greater the chance that you're down not up.

A month or so ago I looked at the stats for Just-Dice.com.  There were about twice as many losers as winners, and the house edge there is about half that of SatoshiDice at just 1% compared to SD's 1.9%, so I imagine the ratio of winners to losers is even lower at SD.

Just-Dice                 ██             
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   1% House Edge
odolvlobo
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September 17, 2013, 04:04:08 AM
 #45

A truly representative poll will show that, of the people that have played, slightly more than 50% have lost and slightly less then 50% have won.
I don't think so.  Most people who have played have played more than once.  The longer you play, the greater the chance that you're down not up.
A month or so ago I looked at the stats for Just-Dice.com.  There were about twice as many losers as winners, and the house edge there is about half that of SatoshiDice at just 1% compared to SD's 1.9%, so I imagine the ratio of winners to losers is even lower at SD.

Hmm, I think you are right. The more someone plays, the closer they get to the expected value. That will narrow the distribution, putting more people on the losing side.

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