Bitcoins price trends (and why the price will be lower later today)

[andes]

There is always that possibility that some big investor will step in but short of that, it's going down like a rock.

Ha ha. No doubt we have the next nobel prize of economics in this forum This has nothing to do with big investors, just a couple millions dollars makes a big difference at this stage, they could come from smaller investors too. Then again, the whole point of bitcoin at this starting stage is growth and adoption. If some people dont believe that lots of new people will become interested in this venture, I wonder why are they here here in the forums at all?? Altruistic souls warning the rest of us?

Sometimes I think these people are trying to influence the markets to buy cheap. Sorry Macho.  

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[Macho]

Then again, the whole point of bitcoin at this starting stage is growth and adoption. If some people dont believe that lots of new people will become interested in this venture, I wonder why are they here here in the forums at all??

I do believe in long term adoption, that's why I'm here and invested in bitcoin but we need to keep it real ... who in their right mind believes the bitcoin economy (that is real products and services exchanged) is anywhere near $120,000,000 which is the current value of all bitcoins? I would be hard pressed to consider it's 1/1000 of that ... this is pure speculation - which doesn't mean it isn't justified but speculation nonetheless which can evaporate overnight.

That's the issue ... if confidence remains high and there is constant influx of new investors/users we may avoid a crash and smoothly transition into more productive economy - it may happen, but I do not give that too much chance after I saw how reactionary is the market. A small fluctuation in the downward direction and the panic will probably start. That's just the way I see it. There is no way a $140,000 worth of products and services is being added to the market every day - I don't think anybody would dispute that.

And why would I want to manipulate the market ... after it crashes I do not think it's coming back any time soon.

[done]

Alot of miners are keeping the majority of btc they create. Buy and hold and there is no need to care about short term swings.

[andes]

Who in their right mind believes the bitcoin economy (that is real products and services exchanged) is anywhere near $120,000,000 which is the current value of all bitcoins?

Some people confuse market capitalization (that is total bitcoins times the current market price) with the money so far invested in Bitcoins. You see, I believe much less than 50% of bitcoins have been traded at these prices. In other words, most of the bitcoins have either never been sold (they are kept by miners), or have been sold at much lower prices some weeks ago. So really the money that has come in to the Bitcoin economy is much, much, much less than 120 millions. Say 30 millions, that is peanuts in any start up like this, that has had so much attention from the media, and that promises to change the world.

Also Russia and other countries are supporting Bitcoin, judging from their TV broadcasts. So for a couple of billions of dollars to come to Bitocoin in the following months, I think its an easy bet. Of course if bitcoin security is breached, or severe legal problems happen, then real and permanent crashes could ocurr, but not until then bro.

Also I dont see why you equate the total products and services exchanged with bitcoin (over which timeframe by the way?) with the market value of bitcoins. These are no comparable units.

Regards.