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Author Topic: Bitcoins price trends (and why the price will be lower later today)  (Read 3453 times)
AstuteTrader
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June 15, 2011, 08:20:07 PM
 #1

Hello! I've been tracking the history of bitcoin prices looking for trends. Using some mathematically precise algorithms typically used to predict stock market prices (i am a very successful stock trader) I've found several trends among the bitcoin market. One I've noticed is after 5 PM on wednesdays the price tends to drop dramatically, only to return within a day. This is strange and inexplicable, but most of the trends are!

Others:

The price tends to dip heavily on the weekends.
Tuesdays and Fridays the prices tend to be the highest.
Late Wednesday/Early Thursday the prices tend to be the lowest.

so basically SELL SELL SELL the bitcoins still have plenty of stabilizing to do but we can all profit if we play this smart, friends Smiley
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kajoman
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June 15, 2011, 08:39:41 PM
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And why would you want to share these amazing findings... Altruism? Ha! Cheesy
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June 15, 2011, 08:53:48 PM
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Any "system" that works on the stock market would not work on BTC pricing.  One is tempered by large numbers and instant liquidity, the other is subject to huge fluctuations in price due to very small fluctuations in buying/selling and is also effected by various delays due to lack of liquidity and difficulty in funding trades.   

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June 15, 2011, 08:55:26 PM
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He does have one valid point though in the 'others' section: Prices tend to historically go crazy during weekends.

Probably because depositing and withdrawing is made harder, or some other inexplicable reason.

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AstuteTrader
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June 15, 2011, 11:07:56 PM
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When I made the OP, the price of the bitcoin was 19.80 or so. The current price is now 19.20. My predictions were accurate, suffice to say.

I'm also theorizing that we're still in a "bubble" and within 2 weeks the price of bitcoins will be worth about $5 each. But for now, I say play the market!

Smiley
kiwiasian
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June 15, 2011, 11:57:30 PM
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I could start an order right now for $20 and bring the price back up.

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Macho
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June 16, 2011, 12:04:02 AM
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I could start an order right now for $20 and bring the price back up.
Yeah, feel free to do that ... everybody has his own way to burn money Cheesy

But seriously, the only thing you would accomplish by buying that much bitcoins is lose shitload of money ... that's the reason nobody is doing it as you may have noticed Wink unless you have several hundred thousand and the guts to do  pump&dump scheme ...
done
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June 16, 2011, 12:35:24 AM
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good luck to all in your bitcoin purchases
foxcartier
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June 16, 2011, 12:58:25 AM
 #9

When I made the OP, the price of the bitcoin was 19.80 or so. The current price is now 19.20. My predictions were accurate, suffice to say.

I'm also theorizing that we're still in a "bubble" and within 2 weeks the price of bitcoins will be worth about $5 each. But for now, I say play the market!

Smiley

...its been bouncing between 19.1-19.9 for days now. Nice try.
Macho
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June 16, 2011, 01:07:55 AM
 #10

...its been bouncing between 19.1-19.9 for days now. Nice try.
No, it IS going down ... it's just a matter of buyers realizing that fact and that it isn't going any higher (and that around 7000 new BTCs enter the market every day) which is going to happen soon and then ... PANIC TIME! Wink The only question is, how low will it go before it stabilizes ...
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June 16, 2011, 01:15:26 AM
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...its been bouncing between 19.1-19.9 for days now. Nice try.
No, it IS going down ... it's just a matter of buyers realizing that fact and that it isn't going any higher (and that around 7000 new BTCs enter the market every day) which is going to happen soon and then ... PANIC TIME! Wink The only question is, how low will it go before it stabilizes ...

W/e, panic is a great way to make fast cash. Just discover some more tactful means of delivering your fear propaganda Cheesy
Macho
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June 16, 2011, 01:29:24 AM
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W/e, panic is a great way to make fast cash. Just discover some more tactful means of delivering your fear propaganda Cheesy
Fear propaganda? Cheesy

Since I posted that comment, price has gone under $19 and I doubt it has anything to do with my "propaganda" lol, most folks do not even read these forums. Just watch, we'll see Wink there is always that possibility that some big investor will step in but short of that, it's going down like a rock Smiley That's just my wild guess or maybe not so wild ... feel free to take it as an insane ramblings of a guy on an internet forum which you should!
kiwiasian
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June 16, 2011, 01:30:07 AM
 #13

I could start an order right now for $20 and bring the price back up.
Yeah, feel free to do that ... everybody has his own way to burn money Cheesy

But seriously, the only thing you would accomplish by buying that much bitcoins is lose shitload of money ... that's the reason nobody is doing it as you may have noticed Wink unless you have several hundred thousand and the guts to do  pump&dump scheme ...

I'm selling BTC hurp durp.
I make more money selling at $20 than at $19.

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foxcartier
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June 16, 2011, 01:41:24 AM
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W/e, panic is a great way to make fast cash. Just discover some more tactful means of delivering your fear propaganda Cheesy
Fear propaganda? Cheesy

Since I posted that comment, price has gone under $19 and I doubt it has anything to do with my "propaganda" lol, most folks do not even read these forums. Just watch, we'll see Wink there is always that possibility that some big investor will step in but short of that, it's going down like a rock Smiley That's just my wild guess or maybe not so wild ... feel free to take it as an insane ramblings of a guy on an internet forum which you should!


Sorry to break it to you, but it hasn't gone under 19, at least not on MtGox Sad

I'd say a fair amount of traders/users/miners of bitcoins use this forum too btw.
goldcd
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June 16, 2011, 01:43:53 AM
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No, it IS going down ... it's just a matter of buyers realizing that fact and that it isn't going any higher (and that around 7000 new BTCs enter the market every day) which is going to happen soon and then ... PANIC TIME! Wink The only question is, how low will it go before it stabilizes ...

I'll trust you on the figures. So 7k BC at ~$20 are entering the market each day. Soo forgive my poor grasp of economics, we are currently 'creating' $140,000 a day.
Does anybody genuinely believe that this amount of money (and more) is being traded each day to actually buy goods and services? I'm guessing not, so most of this is being sat on as we greedily watch the market rise (rising based on just a tiny tiny fraction being actually actively traded and bought by us speculating or the outsiders buying with cash).

Actually best figures to know would the deposits/withdrawals from MtGox per user (the net dollar/BC ratio) - I suddenly see why that site is more valuable than the 0.65% commission they take.

We spend a lot of time debating here whether this is a bubble, or the start of a new financial world order - but quick look at MtGox should clear it up.
Just wondering if it's possibly to work out the daily net throughput of BC to dollars - if it's < $140,000 then BC are being hoarded and we're going to experience the bubble on the way up and all need to time our exit before it breaks and the market gets flooded.

My guestimate is that it'll we'll slide up to maybe $25 (there's 3000 BC currently sitting there on sell - and that'll halt the market long enough for the doubts to kick it) then it'll slam back down.

What I'm undecided on is whether I should just cash in now (or somewhere between here and $25) or do that and then re-buy as it bottoms out (my guess is on 12-13 this time).
Macho
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June 16, 2011, 01:57:19 AM
 #16

It jumped up again dancing in the middle between $19 and $20 ... but sell@20 is consistently rising while buy@19 is consistently declining ... so the trend is clear and quite understandable - as you've said $140,000 new injected money a day is clearly unsustainable by the current bitcoin economy. So it all depends on what the hoarders do ... if only few decide to cash out the panic is on.
alxs
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June 16, 2011, 02:06:42 AM
 #17

It seems to me that with 7k new a day, would be so easy to crash.  I can't figure out how in the world it jumped so fast from $1 other than someone pumped a huge amount of USD into it to drive it up artificially. That kind of spike can't be organic.
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June 16, 2011, 02:19:24 AM
 #18

It seems to me that with 7k new a day, would be so easy to crash.  I can't figure out how in the world it jumped so fast from $1 other than someone pumped a huge amount of USD into it to drive it up artificially. That kind of spike can't be organic.


Look at these charts:


Alexa siterank, Bitcoin.org shows exponential growth:



Alexa siterank, Mtgox.com, also exponential: (+773% over past 3 months)



Google trends, for bitcoin:



Compare those with BTC price charts, to me they look pretty similar, frightening fast growth, but not unorganic.

The utilization of money to create money through economic activity is the intrinsic value of money.
newMeat1
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June 16, 2011, 02:25:21 AM
 #19

2 words:

Paycheck Friday

alxs
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June 16, 2011, 02:25:55 AM
 #20

Great charts, THANKS
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