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Author Topic: Are we on schedule still?  (Read 623 times)
Maria
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January 12, 2017, 07:28:22 PM
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With all this mining power available, are we still on schedule for the 140 year coin distribution? Or will we reach the 21M cap sooner..

Maria.


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January 12, 2017, 07:31:33 PM
 #2

With all this mining power available, are we still on schedule for the 140 year coin distribution? Or will we reach the 21M cap sooner..

Maria.

With rising mining power, difficulty will re-adjust and rise as well. Hence, it will still take 140 years to mine 21M.
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January 12, 2017, 07:38:50 PM
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https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

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If the mining power had remained constant since the first Bitcoin was mined, the last Bitcoin would have been mined somewhere near October 8th, 2140. Due to the mining power having increased overall over time, as of block 367,500 - assuming mining power remained constant from that block forward - the last Bitcoin will be mined on May 7th, 2140.

It's not constant.

Edit:
Difficulty retarget only occurs every 2016 blocks and only take account of how fast the last 2016 was mined, but hashrate can go up and down at anytime and have almost doubled since last year.  So if the hashrate rises after the retarget, the next 2016 should be mined faster.  Correct me if I'm wrong.
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January 12, 2017, 07:58:59 PM
 #4

With all this mining power available, are we still on schedule for the 140 year coin distribution? Or will we reach the 21M cap sooner..

Maria.

With rising mining power, difficulty will re-adjust and rise as well. Hence, it will still take 140 years to mine 21M.

Ya it is true that this mining power are nothing but it is split between the miners so their is no difference about the time cap given for the coin to reach the 21m coins. as on each halving the difficult level is increasing
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January 12, 2017, 08:25:54 PM
 #5

we are ahead of schedule.

side note rewards stop at the year 2141.. just to help you realise where you were getting your "140" number from*

based on 2016 blocks that are meant to average fortnightly. and the number of weeks to get to 210,000 blockheight (block reward halving session)
the maths works out to suggest the schedule is 4years and 2 days and 8 hours per reward halving

this would have made the first reward halving occur january 5th 2013. but we were a month and 5 days ahead at the first reward halving late 2012

this would have made the second reward halving occur january 7th 2017. it happened on 9th of july last year. meaning we are now over 6 months ahead.

imagining say an average 3 monthly differential every block halving. it could reach maxcap about 8 years earlier

if you want to do some maths.

in total there are 32 block reward halvings before maxcap,
each reward halving happening every 4 years=128..
then add on 4 years of the last session that DOES Not lead to a halving =132

*giving you 2141 from the 2009 genesis(beginning)

then you just think up a rational number of how many months gain per reward halving occurs, due to the difficulty adjustment not quite pegging the hashrate right. and deduct it.

basically if you think we will average 1month gain per halving on average. it equates to 2 years 8 months before january 2141
1month/halving=~ april 2138
2month/halving=~ august 2135
3month/halving=~ january 2133
4month/halving=~ april 2120
5month/halving=~ august 2127
6month/halving=~ january 2125  
 

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February 04, 2017, 04:29:41 PM
 #6

if all goes well... no matter what we do we will not be around to see the end of bitcoin! no one has ever survived life its self so with the only certainty of Death , i would have to say  catch em while you can if not enjoy what you got!
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February 05, 2017, 03:32:14 PM
 #7

I recommend to read this article on Bitcoin wiki to understand what difficulty is and how it is culculated and what impact it has to the creation of Bitcoin amount.
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February 05, 2017, 03:41:27 PM
 #8

if i remember rightly the last halving arrived a few days earlier than the first predictions i guess due to extra mining power before adjustment. who knows what mining's gonna look like by then? it probably won't exist but if it did then the prediction will hold. it might come sooner but not years sooner.
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