What's next (short term) ?

[ft73]

We're finally back in the high 700s after a bounce to 833$ (Bitstamp).

So what's next?

So far i think we'll have a short congestion phase before a new explosion of volatility.
Likely a move down with a possible target in the 680 - 690$ range, within 2-3 days.

Imho.

Retrace up to $900 region.

So far price is still struggling to break through resistance zone / top of channel ( about 830 to 845 $ ).
Also the move from the last lower low to 751$ to 838$ was done with low and weakening volume.

Unless volume picks up i see few chances to go up,  a resuming of the down move is more likely.
Obviously any strong volatility peak may push the price to any directions.

[talkbitcoin]

We're finally back in the high 700s after a bounce to 833$ (Bitstamp).

So what's next?

So far i think we'll have a short congestion phase before a new explosion of volatility.
Likely a move down with a possible target in the 680 - 690$ range, within 2-3 days.

Imho.

Retrace up to $900 region.

So far price is still struggling to break through resistance zone / top of channel ( about 830 to 845 $ ).
Also the move from the last lower low to 751$ to 838$ was done with low and weakening volume.

Unless volume picks up i see few chances to go up,  a resuming of the down move is more likely.
Obviously any strong volatility peak may push the price to any directions.

the volume was actually pretty high from what i have been seeing. and it is because the volatility has been going both ways. it is not just in the dropping part of things but also when price rises.
the same panic that caused the drop is also causing the rise, those weak hands who hasn't gave up yet bought back in the fear of missing out.

[olubams]

We're finally back in the high 700s after a bounce to 833$ (Bitstamp).

So what's next?

So far i think we'll have a short congestion phase before a new explosion of volatility.
Likely a move down with a possible target in the 680 - 690$ range, within 2-3 days.

Imho.

I guess, the only thing we can do since no one has the right amount of volume to make a direction for bitcoin, then I guess we should just about our normal business as we have been doing in the past and wait till when we witness something of joy in this "world" again. Since, I can absolutely say the influence I have on the price increase is next to nothing and now it has fallen, same thing occurs for it to rise again, I am sure it does not need my influence. I am still looking at the range of $750- $800s...

[zby]

It will slowly slide down over the rest of the weekend. People wait for what will happen on Monday in China - so they don't buy now. Then on Monday it'll drop some more - because the trend will weight down. I don't think it will make a lower low - but it is possible if there are indeed new bad news. Then on Tuesday it'll start bouncing back towards 1000 when people will start buying back. With lots of volatility.

Just a speculation.

[cellard]

We will continue in the $700-800 range for a while and then eventually once things settle down we will see a new pump to $1000, this is probably the most reasonable analysis, given that no news that can disturb this happen of course. If a bad news happens, we know how fast the price plummets, but the good news is, we know how fast it recovers too, so buy and hold.

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoins protocol fundamentals are still broken. Bitcoin does not scale, offers no privacy and no fungibility.
The community largely still only cares about making profit in fiat, not about establishing and evolving a revolutionary alternative monetary system.

No, you must be wrong. The recent introduction of segwit must be a good witness for that. In a consensus environment it takes time to activate, yet improvements are happening for a revolution of how we are going to exchange.

In short term we can expect bitcoin prices to sustain at current price levels around $850 to gain more power to leap toward $1000 price levels.

SegWit increases efficiency maybe 2 or 3 times, which just pushes the problem forward and is no solution.
It also does nothing to make Bitcoin truly fungible or add privacy in any other way.

Has fungibility really been an issue so far? I believe some people are overusing it to cause a certain amount of fear in the community. Nothing big has really happened as far as fungibility is concerned. We have seen Bitcoins come and go from the dark markets without any effect when to arrives to the people who use it for legitimate purposes.

[jakelyson]

It will slowly slide down over the rest of the weekend. People wait for what will happen on Monday in China - so they don't buy now. Then on Monday it'll drop some more - because the trend will weight down. I don't think it will make a lower low - but it is possible if there are indeed new bad news. Then on Tuesday it'll start bouncing back towards 1000 when people will start buying back. With lots of volatility.

Just a speculation.

What is going to happen in China on monday that will effect the price of bitcoin? And if it is going to drop, can it really bounce back that quick within one day? I do not know what will happen on monday but I do not think the price will drop more. It is quite holding steady at above 800. I think this our support level now.

[BlackPanda]

We will continue in the $700-800 range for a while and then eventually once things settle down we will see a new pump to $1000, this is probably the most reasonable analysis, given that no news that can disturb this happen of course. If a bad news happens, we know how fast the price plummets, but the good news is, we know how fast it recovers too, so buy and hold.

we have to wait to see how the price of bitcoin move today. according to my analysis at this time the best thing is to wait for price movements bitcoin. because we are still at a safe price range. still likely to be the pumping bitcoin in January of this.

[d5000]

I would pay attention to the range around $838-40 - the last local high. In the last hours we are seeing a slight price increase (well, it's not so insignificant: more than 3%). On BTCChina the equivalent is 5.735 CNY.

I expect this point to be tested, and if we pass it, it's possible that the price jumps again to the $850-920 area where we stranded in the last sideway movement.

[linyhan]

This year bitcoin will be in a long term way. Dont go for shorts or you will loose.at this current price this is the right time to go long. If you want to get big and high profit always be a bull.

[unknown04]

short term, no one can tell.... you should buy and keep, bitcoin is always long term unless you know when the price drop or increase....

[Wind_FURY]

It will slowly slide down over the rest of the weekend. People wait for what will happen on Monday in China - so they don't buy now. Then on Monday it'll drop some more - because the trend will weight down. I don't think it will make a lower low - but it is possible if there are indeed new bad news. Then on Tuesday it'll start bouncing back towards 1000 when people will start buying back. With lots of volatility.

Just a speculation.

What is going to happen in China on monday that will effect the price of bitcoin? And if it is going to drop, can it really bounce back that quick within one day? I do not know what will happen on monday but I do not think the price will drop more. It is quite holding steady at above 800. I think this our support level now.

It is morning trading hours in China right now and I believe that they are leading the pack in buying back again. Bitcoin's average price in $ is at around $830 and hopefully you are correct that $800 is the new floor. It will be another psychological set back if it will go down back below $600 again. I know it is an opportunity to buy more but I like to see it more to go up.

[pooya87]

It will slowly slide down over the rest of the weekend. People wait for what will happen on Monday in China - so they don't buy now. Then on Monday it'll drop some more - because the trend will weight down. I don't think it will make a lower low - but it is possible if there are indeed new bad news. Then on Tuesday it'll start bouncing back towards 1000 when people will start buying back. With lots of volatility.

Just a speculation.

What is going to happen in China on monday that will effect the price of bitcoin? And if it is going to drop, can it really bounce back that quick within one day? I do not know what will happen on monday but I do not think the price will drop more. It is quite holding steady at above 800. I think this our support level now.

It is morning trading hours in China right now and I believe that they are leading the pack in buying back again. Bitcoin's average price in $ is at around $830 and hopefully you are correct that $800 is the new floor. It will be another psychological set back if it will go down back below $600 again. I know it is an opportunity to buy more but I like to see it more to go up.

$800 is the new floor because in my opinion it doesn't matter that we saw it break and go below down to $735 since it didn't last more than a day and if you remember there was lots of panic and FUD circling bitcoin those two days about China,... just like always.
we'll have to wait and see if it holds for more days but for now it seems to be strong and holding this price up while the volume is still as high as any other stable price before it indicating accumulation.

[ft73]

Update to OP.

Price still in "congestion" phase and 3 days already passed by.
Except for timeframe ( which was wrong ) i have to confirm my opening post.

I still can't see much margin for an upmove, the given target (855$) still applies in my opinion.
I consider a move down to the 700s more likely and 600s are not ruled out.

[d5000]

I think when 838 USD / ~5730 CNY (the last local high I mentioned in my previous post) are broken, then it's likely that the price will also break 855, as it would be an indicator that the bearish tendency is about to break.

838 is not far away, but on the other hand on the order books there are many open sell orders in the 825-840 region, in USD and in CNY. It's also true that the volume is low now and that would be more of a bearish indicator.

Difficult to predict. We may even be stuck in a sideways market (what would not be a bad thing, considering the block size problem lacks a solution for now as Segwit is far away from being activated).

[Flattering Flatulants]

Expect a retractment down to $700 and a levelout for a few months before we see another rise.

[d5000]

My prediction seems to have been pretty good So we're actually again in a bullish mood. The short correction to the $880-900 region has been healthy in the sense that it didn't overheat.

For the actual short term, my guess is that the price should stay in this region (850-920) for a couple of days. If we fall below 850, then we may see another test of the 780-800s but I think it won't stay there too long. If not, the next important mark is the 930-940 region - the last high of the first "dead cat bounce". If we pass 950, I think it's all bullish.

[JohnUser]

My prediction seems to have been pretty good So we're actually again in a bullish mood. The short correction to the $880-900 region has been healthy in the sense that it didn't overheat.

For the actual short term, my guess is that the price should stay in this region (850-920) for a couple of days. If we fall below 850, then we may see another test of the 780-800s but I think it won't stay there too long. If not, the next important mark is the 930-940 region - the last high of the first "dead cat bounce". If we pass 950, I think it's all bullish.

You were 100% right for the 24 hours past!

[Herbert2020]

My prediction seems to have been pretty good So we're actually again in a bullish mood. The short correction to the $880-900 region has been healthy in the sense that it didn't overheat.

For the actual short term, my guess is that the price should stay in this region (850-920) for a couple of days. If we fall below 850, then we may see another test of the 780-800s but I think it won't stay there too long. If not, the next important mark is the 930-940 region - the last high of the first "dead cat bounce". If we pass 950, I think it's all bullish.

i agree with your speculation for the most but but i think it is still possible to see lower prices such as below $850 because in the past things like this happened a lot and they are mostly for testing the bottom resistance and cheap coins but i do not think going below $850 means $780-800 is possible.

[slapper]

My prediction seems to have been pretty good So we're actually again in a bullish mood. The short correction to the $880-900 region has been healthy in the sense that it didn't overheat.

For the actual short term, my guess is that the price should stay in this region (850-920) for a couple of days. If we fall below 850, then we may see another test of the 780-800s but I think it won't stay there too long. If not, the next important mark is the 930-940 region - the last high of the first "dead cat bounce". If we pass 950, I think it's all bullish.

i agree with your speculation for the most but but i think it is still possible to see lower prices such as below $850 because in the past things like this happened a lot and they are mostly for testing the bottom resistance and cheap coins but i do not think going below $850 means $780-800 is possible.

I think his prediction need to be fixed at some points. Since there is no connection to events happening around the Earth, I do not think that it is correct 100%. On tomorrow, Trump will officially become the next president of the USA and it is certain that this event will cause a big damage to the world economy, which helps Bitcoin to increase its prices from 50$ to 100$. Another event which I think is important to be sorted here is the Chinese new year. The Chinese new year roles an important part on every living Chinese and Chinese investors tend to sell their Bitcoin on those days.