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Kazu (OP)
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April 12, 2013, 11:17:33 PM |
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I think the entire way Bitcoin is being traded & the psychology that goes along with that is inappropriate.
Bitcoin is too fast, at least now, and will likely stay like this. Bitcoins can change hands instantly or near instantly for free or nearly free with absolutely no 'friction.' What this means is that the only thing stopping Bitcoin from moving in any direction at any given time is the psychology with which it is perceived. If tomorrow everybody woke up and 'decided' that their Bitcoin should be worth $300, it would be worth $300. If everybody woke up and 'decided' that gold was worth $3000, there would have to be shipments canceled, likely lawsuits filed over those shipments canceled, 401Ks with delays of days to update, mutual funds to get out of or buy in to, exchanges to wait until they open...
Bitcoin is like gold in many ways, but the fact of the matter is that BTC can be moved around faster than gold, and that is one of its main advantages. However, it also can change price faster than gold for the same reason. And because its the currency equivalent of a penny stock, its volatility is increased even further. 1 hour of Bitcoin trading is about equal to 1 day of gold trading in terms of price change potential.
One of the most obvious implications of this is just how bad Gox shutting down trading for a day is. Its one thing if they shut it down while telling people they are, when the perception of Bitcoin is positive. Even that's iffy. But shutting trading down for as long as they did, when they did, is about half a "bitcoin month." Thats a nono. Also lag is a bit more important than it would otherwise be.
I'm just pointing out that Bitcoin is unique, and thus maybe the huge price fluctuations aren't so insane as they seem.
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LeTanque
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Activity: 85
Merit: 10
Fortune favors the bold and brave
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April 12, 2013, 11:22:02 PM |
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I think the entire way Bitcoin is being traded & the psychology that goes along with that is inappropriate.
Bitcoin is too fast, at least now, and will likely stay like this. Bitcoins can change hands instantly or near instantly for free or nearly free with absolutely no 'friction.' What this means is that the only thing stopping Bitcoin from moving in any direction at any given time is the psychology with which it is perceived. If tomorrow everybody woke up and 'decided' that their Bitcoin should be worth $300, it would be worth $300. If everybody woke up and 'decided' that gold was worth $3000, there would have to be shipments canceled, likely lawsuits filed over those shipments canceled, 401Ks with delays of days to update, mutual funds to get out of or buy in to, exchanges to wait until they open...
Bitcoin is like gold in many ways, but the fact of the matter is that BTC can be moved around faster than gold, and that is one of its main advantages. However, it also can change price faster than gold for the same reason. And because its the currency equivalent of a penny stock, its volatility is increased even further. 1 hour of Bitcoin trading is about equal to 1 day of gold trading in terms of price change potential.
One of the most obvious implications of this is just how bad Gox shutting down trading for a day is. Its one thing if they shut it down while telling people they are, when the perception of Bitcoin is positive. Even that's iffy. But shutting trading down for as long as they did, when they did, is about half a "bitcoin month." Thats a nono. Also lag is a bit more important than it would otherwise be.
I'm just pointing out that Bitcoin is unique, and thus maybe the huge price fluctuations aren't so insane as they seem.
Well said. It's also important to point out that the market is especially volatile partially in relation to the age. Things could calm down a bit in a few years. |
"It is a mistake to suppose that any technological innovation has a one-sided effect. Every technology is both a burden and a blessing; not either-or, but this-and-that." -Neil Postman Technopoly
1FooDLuTYk782GQNrY7zY1obTc4ceUfj5t
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Kazu (OP)
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April 12, 2013, 11:23:38 PM |
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I think the entire way Bitcoin is being traded & the psychology that goes along with that is inappropriate.
Bitcoin is too fast, at least now, and will likely stay like this. Bitcoins can change hands instantly or near instantly for free or nearly free with absolutely no 'friction.' What this means is that the only thing stopping Bitcoin from moving in any direction at any given time is the psychology with which it is perceived. If tomorrow everybody woke up and 'decided' that their Bitcoin should be worth $300, it would be worth $300. If everybody woke up and 'decided' that gold was worth $3000, there would have to be shipments canceled, likely lawsuits filed over those shipments canceled, 401Ks with delays of days to update, mutual funds to get out of or buy in to, exchanges to wait until they open...
Bitcoin is like gold in many ways, but the fact of the matter is that BTC can be moved around faster than gold, and that is one of its main advantages. However, it also can change price faster than gold for the same reason. And because its the currency equivalent of a penny stock, its volatility is increased even further. 1 hour of Bitcoin trading is about equal to 1 day of gold trading in terms of price change potential.
One of the most obvious implications of this is just how bad Gox shutting down trading for a day is. Its one thing if they shut it down while telling people they are, when the perception of Bitcoin is positive. Even that's iffy. But shutting trading down for as long as they did, when they did, is about half a "bitcoin month." Thats a nono. Also lag is a bit more important than it would otherwise be.
I'm just pointing out that Bitcoin is unique, and thus maybe the huge price fluctuations aren't so insane as they seem.
Well said. It's also important to point out that the market is especially volatile partially in relation to the age. Things could calm down a bit in a few years. Agreed. But naturally, Bitcoin will have more volatility than even a startup. The biggest barrier to Bitcoin being a stable currency is getting a certain price range stuck into people's brains as THE price. Bitcoin is 50% technology, 20% economics, 20% psychology... and 10% something we don't know yet. |
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Kazu (OP)
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April 12, 2013, 11:27:51 PM |
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I would consider it remarkable if Bitcoin 'calmed down' any time soon... More like decades.
Bitcoin doesn't need to calm down. People need to calm down. And they seem rather un-calm at the moment. I was sort of hoping that they would get their act together after the sell-off, but it looks like we are going to go into a 3rd round of boom-bust almost immediately. Hopefully boom to $400 bust to $150, this time :0 |
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NikolaTesla
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April 12, 2013, 11:56:30 PM |
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I would consider it remarkable if Bitcoin 'calmed down' any time soon... More like decades.
Bitcoin doesn't need to calm down. People need to calm down. And they seem rather un-calm at the moment. I was sort of hoping that they would get their act together after the sell-off, but it looks like we are going to go into a 3rd round of boom-bust almost immediately. Hopefully boom to $400 bust to $150, this time :0 Yeah, I can't believe people are already falling for another bull trap. I guess there's one born every minute. |
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NamelessOne
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Merit: 1000
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April 13, 2013, 12:08:39 AM
Last edit: April 13, 2013, 01:43:40 AM by NamelessOne |
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Well it isn't a bulltrap if it goes higher than the ATH as Kazu is suggesting. We also hit the long term trend line and bounce right off it, that is powerful psychologically for a market. Very soon we will be making a new daily high, haha. We shall see how it plays out.
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bitcon
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April 13, 2013, 12:36:33 AM |
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tiger woods making a comeback too
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redwraith
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April 13, 2013, 12:57:53 AM |
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I would consider it remarkable if Bitcoin 'calmed down' any time soon... More like decades.
Congratulations on calling the top with your evolving moneyflow indicator! |
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alexh
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Activity: 183
Merit: 10
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April 13, 2013, 01:01:59 AM |
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Bitcoins will cool down in the next years probably, they are just too hot now.
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