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Author Topic: Epic bull trap in the making?  (Read 5786 times)
jayson3
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April 13, 2013, 06:01:01 AM
 #61

The "crash" did not even go below the 50 day moving average.  Traders consider that to be a short term correction in a bull market, which is often an excellent buying opportunity.  A bear market becomes more likely if the 200 day average is violated (in the mid 30s right now) and when the short term average crosses below the long term average.  

For a long term investor, the recent price spike is just noise.  If btc continues to stabilize around $100, we will have an excellent base for more same an sustainable long term games.
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yokosan
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April 13, 2013, 08:11:59 AM
 #62

Bull trap that is going to pop in less than 24 hours.

And yes my money is riding on that exact situation. Wish me luck.



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johnyj
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April 13, 2013, 11:30:07 AM
 #63

I made 2.5 times my initial investment; I don't need to complain about money. I'm just calling it like it is.
Smart people bought up more coins, while impetuous people sold their coins to those smart people.

Do not be an impetuous short term investor. Be a prudent long term investor and that is when you'll gain more than you lose on Bitcoin.

I've lost not a penny and I've gained. I'm not bragging, just saying if you take the long view no one really has lost a penny. If you take the short view you lost everything. The prices are now more than they where when I bought my first coin. At the lowest low of 77 I bought more coins, that was today. I knew it wouldn't last that low and if anyone were smart they'd have bought at those prices. Some people got coins at $50. Honestly if I had more money I would have bought hundreds of coins, but unfortunately I only had a couple hundred bucks.

These "Smart people" are smart enough to start a DDOS to create panic sell and buy low, this is a new way of market manipulation. By normal means, they could never buy so much coin (more than 2% of total coin) without push the price above $1000


awakening
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April 13, 2013, 11:45:06 AM
 #64

I'm not buying at more than 50-60$.
shsmith
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April 13, 2013, 06:58:53 PM
 #65


What do you think? Sustainable or not?

I think we are over the hump.
It is all down from here until we get back to normal.


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyzczsg2013-04-04zeg2013-04-14ztgSza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g21zvzl
AlgoSwan
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April 13, 2013, 08:21:19 PM
 #66

I wouldn't be surprised if it was actually BFL themselves cashing out via proxies and getting ready to run.

I have similar analysis except I don't think they will run away but they can start sending (delivering) ASICs to the miners especially BTC/USD prices around $40-60 range.

US options trader and ancap
ElectricMucus
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April 13, 2013, 08:24:49 PM
 #67

I wouldn't be surprised if it was actually BFL themselves cashing out via proxies and getting ready to run.

I have similar analysis except I don't think they will run away but they can start sending (delivering) ASICs to the miners especially BTC/USD prices around $40-60 range.

That would imply they actually have products though.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
AlgoSwan
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ancap


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April 13, 2013, 08:51:36 PM
 #68

That would imply they actually have products though.

The whole story would be like:

1. Innovation of ASICs,
2. Speculating and/or manipulating BTC prices (in order to get selling orders from miners and use that funds to speculate or manipulate more)
3. Start selling at the temporary all time high ($260)
4. Start high speed delivery of ASICs.

And finally, they can do the very same process for future innovation of new hardware either by BFL or any other new company.

It is all about profits. Anyone disagree this?

US options trader and ancap
ElectricMucus
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April 13, 2013, 09:26:23 PM
 #69

[snip]
It is all about profits. Anyone disagree this?


Who knows. Right now it looks like they really are incompetent enough to actually fail delivering, it could be a charade.
For me that's too many layers of deception to be actually true.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
BTC Books
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April 13, 2013, 10:28:56 PM
 #70

[snip]
It is all about profits. Anyone disagree this?


Who knows. Right now it looks like they really are incompetent enough to actually fail delivering, it could be a charade.
For me that's too many layers of deception to be actually true.


Yeah - I agree.  All that clever market, customer, and price manipulation just doesn't seem likely.  Past performance doesn't guarantee future performance, but incompetence does tend to be a solid leading indicator.

Dankedan: price seems low, time to sell I think...
XXthetimeisnowXX
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April 14, 2013, 06:58:43 AM
 #71





Heyyyyyyyy ... when's THIS bubble gonna pop?  Cheesy



the earth will become a tiring and chaotic place full of people (increasingly where life has less value) and either governments fail us or they institute population control.


humans are profoundly irresponsible when it comes to reproduction.




Heyyyyyyyy ... when's THIS bubble gonna pop?  Cheesy



the earth will become a tiring and chaotic place full of people (increasingly where life has less value) and either governments fail us or they institute population control.


humans are profoundly irresponsible when it comes to reproduction.


sounds horrible but when there is a natural disaster and lots go away....yet sad and horrible for those families, you have to agree that it is a necessary evil. never mind you don't have to agree with it. its a horrible thing but in general this earth is about done with people and it will continue to throw things at us to reduce and control the population. IMO thats why dr are not good people. they are messing with what nature and millions of years of evolution has planed. that is the natural processes of natural selection. you let people live that otherwise would not have without the modern technologies of medicine and medical advancements then you continue to have a population overwhelming the earth in every way imaginable. there will be consequences for such blatant disregard for this amazing place we have been given to live.
Ares
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April 14, 2013, 07:10:04 AM
 #72





Heyyyyyyyy ... when's THIS bubble gonna pop?  Cheesy



the earth will become a tiring and chaotic place full of people (increasingly where life has less value) and either governments fail us or they institute population control.


humans are profoundly irresponsible when it comes to reproduction.




Heyyyyyyyy ... when's THIS bubble gonna pop?  Cheesy



the earth will become a tiring and chaotic place full of people (increasingly where life has less value) and either governments fail us or they institute population control.


humans are profoundly irresponsible when it comes to reproduction.


sounds horrible but when there is a natural disaster and lots go away....yet sad and horrible for those families, you have to agree that it is a necessary evil. never mind you don't have to agree with it. its a horrible thing but in general this earth is about done with people and it will continue to throw things at us to reduce and control the population. IMO thats why dr are not good people. they are messing with what nature and millions of years of evolution has planed. that is the natural processes of natural selection. you let people live that otherwise would not have without the modern technologies of medicine and medical advancements then you continue to have a population overwhelming the earth in every way imaginable. there will be consequences for such blatant disregard for this amazing place we have been given to live.

But it's natural for humans to want to help save other humans. Therefore it's unnatural to say doctors are evil
Bitmeat
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April 14, 2013, 07:32:40 AM
 #73

You guys have forgotten already or didn't care at the time, but the "DDOS" attacks  have been happening since early March, and probably before.

Symptoms were always the same as what you saw the last couple weeks, lots of sells, and price starts to drop, mtgox lag starts starts to increase to seconds, then minutes, as at the same time the market is flooded with the tiny orders. Magically, after the lag clears, the price is stable and a little up again. Meanwhile during the high lag periods, the people mtgox has given direct access to the exchange are unaffected and can continue to accurately judge and buy/sell on the market. This isn't a conspiracy theory, mtgox has publicised this info for a while, as that's how the big boy nyse exchanges do it, and they want to be them.

At the time I thought it was MtGox themselves manipulating latency to stop price corrections before they could gather steam, but after they publicy started saying that these events were "DDOS" (notice they don't tell you whether it's a traditional hack type DDOS - e.g DNS amplification, or just someone spamming the market to break their crappy exchange) it's easy to put two and two together and realise that people smarter than mtgox are the ones doing the manipulating, and are doing it for profit.

The price was manipulated all the way up from the mid $30s, which is when I first read about one of these events that we now know as a mtgox DDOS attack. It probably happened prior to that, as systems were tested etc to make sure that the algos and people were ready.

Yet people think its only the last singularity paced 130>266 rise that's manipulation and needed correction. You are very likely going to get burnt in your ignorance. And unlike many here I will not be buying at a certain price, or selling at a certain price, so I don't have any real incentive to make you move your money in ways that I want.
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