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Adrian-x
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April 13, 2013, 05:02:18 AM
 #1

.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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niko
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April 13, 2013, 06:21:26 AM
 #2

I saw the title of this thread, and got prepared for a shallow one-liner opening post. You got it all covered, however. I've got nothing to add. Thanks.

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Melbustus
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April 13, 2013, 07:02:47 AM
 #3

I come back to eco-system development. MUCH more going on now, including global geo-political awareness, etc, VCs are getting their feet wet, infrastructure is being built out, we've got some bitcoin hedge funds, better security, (mostly) well understood best-practices for handling bitcoin as both a user and a business....

None of that was true in 2011. There was very little infrastructure base. The price was driven by the (in my opinion) correct analysis of bitcoin's phenomenal theoretical potential, but the ecosystem was incredibly thin. Yes, it's still absolutely in infancy now, but still amounts to much more of a solid core to support it in terms of mindshare, commitment, people, money, and services.

I'm maintaining a couple email chains about bitcoin now with dozens of people ranging from 20-something developers, to experienced VCs and entrepreneurs, to Wall St bankers. The level of serious, thoughtful, attention given to bitcoin now by a wider swath of people is great, and not to be under-appreciated.

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Gordonium
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April 13, 2013, 08:02:04 AM
 #4

I come back to eco-system development. MUCH more going on now, including global geo-political awareness, etc, VCs are getting their feet wet, infrastructure is being built out, we've got some bitcoin hedge funds, better security, (mostly) well understood best-practices for handling bitcoin as both a user and a business....

None of that was true in 2011. There was very little infrastructure base. The price was driven by the (in my opinion) correct analysis of bitcoin's phenomenal theoretical potential, but the ecosystem was incredibly thin. Yes, it's still absolutely in infancy now, but still amounts to much more of a solid core to support it in terms of mindshare, commitment, people, money, and services.

I'm maintaining a couple email chains about bitcoin now with dozens of people ranging from 20-something developers, to experienced VCs and entrepreneurs, to Wall St bankers. The level of serious, thoughtful, attention given to bitcoin now by a wider swath of people is great, and not to be under-appreciated.

+1

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evolve
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April 13, 2013, 08:05:35 AM
 #5

The big difference between now and 2011?...a new group of suckers.


Same get rich quick attitude, same "new paradigm" talk, just different people.

What's old is new again.  Roll Eyes
Melbustus
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April 13, 2013, 08:10:25 AM
 #6

The big difference between now and 2011?...a new group of suckers.


Same get rich quick attitude, same "new paradigm" talk, just different people.

What's old is new again.  Roll Eyes


Thanks for contributing.

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April 13, 2013, 08:11:38 AM
 #7

You're welcome.
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April 13, 2013, 08:23:33 AM
 #8

Same get rich quick attitude, same "new paradigm" talk, just different people.

This is a new paradigm of financial bubbles!
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1221iZanNi5igK7oAA7AWmYjpsyjsRbLLZ


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April 13, 2013, 08:30:35 AM
 #9

Adrian-x: excellent post.

I admit, I was only lurking during the 2011 crash, so I can't speak with authority...

I think you're right about the increased trade volume. It is essential to finding the optimal exchange rate.

In 2011 there weren't enough bids (buys) and asks (sells) to meet the demand, so a relatively small number of coins made too much of a change in the price.

And that leads directly to the infrastructure problem: Gox claims they got flooded with the volume of orders. The infrastructure problems have their effect on the price. I think it would be better if the infrastructure scaled before the volume arrived, but I can understand that sometimes the growth is surprising or erratic.

But if Gox doesn't pick up the slack they're just leaving money on the table for someone else to take.
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April 13, 2013, 09:02:23 AM
 #10

The big difference between now and 2011?...a new group of suckers.


Same get rich quick attitude, same "new paradigm" talk, just different people.

What's old is new again.  Roll Eyes

Says the guy who:

1. Has  bitcointalk forum account

2. Has  bitcoin address in his signature

hmm yes you can be a part of that vision too lol.

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Nikolaj06
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April 13, 2013, 09:57:42 AM
 #11

Very nice comparisons, however is it possible to slow down the GIF's? They are moving a tad too quick for me to properly use them without getting dizzy :b
AlgoSwan
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April 13, 2013, 10:54:41 AM
 #12

A deja-vu all over again! Very cool charts and nearly identical twins.

US options trader and ancap
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April 13, 2013, 11:35:46 AM
 #13

just plot it on a log sale and you can compare directly, thats what log scale was made for.

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niko
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April 13, 2013, 02:48:45 PM
 #14

just plot it on a log sale and you can compare directly, thats what log scale was made for.

Yes. A percent scale would also be alright. Since we are only looking at ~10x change in price within the time span of interest, linear scale is not too badly distorted compared to the (more appropriate) log scale.

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April 14, 2013, 02:36:17 AM
 #15

Your warning is welcome, but keep in mind traders who have sold out, and are now talking the price down can play in the wall observer thread.
 

The price is doing a pretty damn good job of going down by itself, it certainly doesn't need my help.  Wink 

Edit: and the post above me shows why...
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April 14, 2013, 02:39:03 AM
 #16

Your warning is welcome, but keep in mind traders who have sold out, and are now talking the price down can play in the wall observer thread.
 

The price is doing a pretty damn good job of going down by itself, it certainly doesn't need my help.  Wink  

Bitcoin: The only currency which can be brought down by forum posts.   Grin

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April 14, 2013, 02:41:05 AM
 #17

Watch out people, I may post again and knock the price down another 75%... Grin
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April 14, 2013, 02:45:34 AM
 #18

The price is doing a pretty damn good job of going down by itself, it certainly doesn't need my help.  Wink  

Bitcoin: The only currency which can be brought down by forum posts.   Grin
One of my friends on another site only knows about Bitcoin because of Something Awful's old attempts to manipulate the price by posting hyperbolically on this forum. I wasn't around then, but said friend seemed to recall it being somewhat successful.

Hopefully we've put those days behind us!

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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April 14, 2013, 02:48:44 AM
 #19

The price is doing a pretty damn good job of going down by itself, it certainly doesn't need my help.  Wink  

Bitcoin: The only currency which can be brought down by forum posts.   Grin
One of my friends on another site only knows about Bitcoin because of Something Awful's old attempts to manipulate the price by posting hyperbolically on this forum. I wasn't around then, but said friend seemed to recall it being somewhat successful.

Hopefully we've put those days behind us!

That was hilarious, and it was a scapegoating which SA played very well.
btw: 4chan has started to make fun of us too.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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April 14, 2013, 02:51:37 AM
 #20

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