ASIC mining - would it worth to jump in?

[MegaBrutal]

Hi,

I noticed an advertisement of upcoming ASIC miners which will be able to mine with 50 GH/s and 25 GH/s speed, and found a Bitcoin mining profitability calculator. Surprisingly, this calculator says that this hardware would bring back its price in 10 days! :S I even calculated that my country probably has higher electricity costs, but it still says I'd reach break-even within half a month.

I'm a complete noob to mining and only considering to get into it, also I only have a little money, which is profit from Bitcoin trading. At the moment I couldn't even afford the 50 GH/s miner, only the 25 GH/s one... Even that would bring nice results theoretically. It suggests that I would make more money by mining than by trading. Actually, it says I'd make much more money per month than that I earn by regular work in my current job.

Since things look way too much rosy at a first glance, and I lived enough time to know the big fucking world doesn't work like this that I just buy a hardware out of my Bitcoin profit and then soon get millionare by using it; I thought to ask for your insights... It just looks too beautiful... I think I'm somehow overlooking something...

Things to know:

• It would be an all-or-nothing action for me - if I really spend my actual Bitcoin profit on this miner, and it won't work, it's likely that I won't be able to get back into the Bitcoin business for an unpredictable amount of time.
• I live in Europe... AC power standards are different here. Would this ASIC miner even work here? Are there converters and such, and if there are, how much extra cost would they generate? OR are there suitable alternatives for this hardware in Europe those have similar characteristics?
• If this miner looks so rosy, and since Bitcoin prices went up, isn't it possible that a very large amount of users would get it simultenously, and then Bitcoin block difficulty would grow so high that this rig would stop making profit anymore?
• Is it possible that somehow it won't even return its price?
• If I can only afford the 25 GH/s, should I just buy that or should I rather wait 'til I get enough money for the 50 GH/s version? Maybe the 25 GH/s one would get useless earlier and anyway, if you have a goose, have it fat; maybe it's wiser to invest in the 50 GH/s one, even if I have to wait for that.

Some of my questions might look lame in the expecienced miner's eyes, sorry for that; but I really have zero experience with mining.

[1715235082]

1715235082

[empoweoqwj]

Yes the pictures look beautiful. Some here suggest BFL spent more time making the pictures than the "product"

[MarKusRomanus]

That's a BFL ASIC miner... by the time you actually get it shipped to you, The profits may be much much lower.  No one knows when BFL will get their act together (if ever) And ship these item to those who have pre-ordered them.

[MegaBrutal]

Are there any existing ASIC devices available those are ready for shipping and are verified to generate profit?

[DrG]

Are there any existing ASIC devices available those are ready for shipping and are verified to generate profit?

Sadly, at this time, no.  Hence all the squabbling.

[pheaonix]

i suggest reading some threads

[A Meteorite]

Are there any existing ASIC devices available those are ready for shipping and are verified to generate profit?

Short answer: no.

Avalon is sold out. You could maybe buy someone's pre-order, but buyer beware. ASICMiner looks like they'll be shipping to end-users, but it'd probably be shareholders first and there's no other information at this time.

You could also buy shares in ASICMiner or Coin Hoarder's group buy.

There are two ventures that may start making ASICs (kncminer and helveticoin), but you should be careful there until they prove they are not a scam.

Basically your only options are to wait and see, try to buy someone's order, buy shares in ASICMiner or Coin Hoarder, or settle building a Litecoin mining rig.

[MegaBrutal]

I looked into this Avalon - is there a hope there will be a Batch #4 of it any time soon?

And anyway, for 100+ BTC it seems hell expensive. :/ The BFL ASIC is much cheaper (though if it's non-existent, then it's actually more expensive, calculating cost-effectiveness ). With today's BTC rates, it's unpayable for me... I hope that they set the 100 BTC price when BTC was cheaper, and a future Batch #4 won't be priced more than ~2500 USD worth in BTC.

[A Meteorite]

I looked into this Avalon - is there a hope there will be a Batch #4 of it any time soon?

And anyway, for 100+ BTC it seems hell expensive. :/ The BFL ASIC is much cheaper (though if it's non-existent, then it's actually more expensive, calculating cost-effectiveness ). With today's BTC rates, it's unpayable for me... I hope that they set the 100 BTC price when BTC was cheaper, and a future Batch #4 won't be priced more than ~2500 USD worth in BTC.

Avalon has not yet announced Batch #4 and may never produce one. They never wanted to be the sole source of ASICs.

Their 100 BTC price was actually set when BTC was around $60-70. The reasoning was that they expected it to make a BTC ROI within a month (although I think it will take longer since they only estimated 2x difficulty).

The problem with ordering BFL now, is if they ship, you will probably not receive your unit until the end of this year. Maybe longer. Maybe never. Assuming you did get it at the end of this year, the difficulty would be sky high. ROI could a year or two, or maybe even never.

[Tigggger]

The problem with ordering BFL now, is if they ship, you will probably not receive your unit until the end of this year. Maybe longer. Maybe never. Assuming you did get it at the end of this year, the difficulty would be sky high. ROI could a year or two, or maybe even never.

Words of wisdom +1

The best option is to hope one of these new players brings a device to market, because even if it takes them 6 months that's likely to be quicker than a BFL ordered today.

A new supplier is also likely to price the device according to market conditions at the time (like avalon do) so taking a lot of guesswork out of the purchasing decision.

[fitty]

The problem with ordering BFL now, is if they ship, you will probably not receive your unit until the end of this year. Maybe longer. Maybe never. Assuming you did get it at the end of this year, the difficulty would be sky high. ROI could a year or two, or maybe even never.

Words of wisdom +1

The best option is to hope one of these new players brings a device to market, because even if it takes them 6 months that's likely to be quicker than a BFL ordered today.

A new supplier is also likely to price the device according to market conditions at the time (like avalon do) so taking a lot of guesswork out of the purchasing decision.

Agreed. There are real ASIC manufacturers, real companies with experience, unlike Avalon (thought they seem to have done quite well) and BFL (who are sucking). You don't see them right now because it's a fairly big investment and unless you know the Bitcoin community, history, you just don't invest a few million hoping there's a market for it. But as the community grows, you'll see legit companies putting out ASIC miners that might end up being better/cheaper so right now it's just wait and see.

If you think Bitcoin is going to be around for the next 5 years, getting a few ASIC rigs in the fall of 2013 isn't the end of the world.