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Author Topic: The single digits believers thread  (Read 4386 times)
yokosan
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April 13, 2013, 11:08:40 AM
 #1

This thread is only for those that genuinely believe that Bitcoin will hit single digits again at some point in the future.

Short term or long term, it doesn't matter. Get your predictions in here.

I'll start: If people genuinely believe Bitcoin is going to reach $1mil/BTC then it is statistically almost 100% likely that we would hit single digits. The current high is $266, that's only $256 away from singles. $1mil is $999,734 away. Bitcoin has already proven that it works in hype cycles, it makes sense that once a big enough bubble comes along where $1k+ moves in 1 day are the norm we would very likely hit rock bottom. This concept applies no matter where you place the ultimate value of Bitcoin, single digits are an inevitability.



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ruski
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April 13, 2013, 11:10:15 AM
 #2

Quote
Single digits believers thread

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April 13, 2013, 11:21:55 AM
 #3

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April 13, 2013, 11:31:01 AM
 #4

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April 13, 2013, 11:35:32 AM
 #5

It's one thing to argue for a crash (many make compelling arguments and well, I guess they were right). But to argue for an almost fatal crash is another. IMO numerical probability alone won't cut it.

There has to be a reason for it to occur. They few things I could think of which could cause such a catastrophic event:

1 A glitch in the bitcoin code which is exploited, rendering the currency untrustable

2 Complete ban by major governments

3 Closure of SR for whatever reason

4 Gox disappears/fails overnight with no refunds to account holders

5 Proudhon is appointed 'chief price strategist' by the bitcoin foundation

Any of these events are no doubt a possibility, but certainly not something one could say has a significant likelihood of occuring?

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ruski
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April 13, 2013, 11:38:39 AM
 #6

2 Complete ban by major governments
3 Closure of SR for whatever reason

anyone else find it ironic these two are right next to each other?
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April 13, 2013, 11:41:10 AM
 #7

2 Complete ban by major governments
3 Closure of SR for whatever reason

anyone else find it ironic these two are right next to each other?

I was actually attempting to rank them in order of most catastrophic to least Grin

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awakening
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April 13, 2013, 11:43:33 AM
 #8

Without any kind of legal problems due to the goverments, a new better cryptocurrency, or a exploitable vulnerability at the protocol itself, I dont think we are gonna see single digits again.
Maybe if this is a big bull trap we are gonna see prices like 20$, or 15$.. But I don't think we are gonna see anything lower than that. Or It would be a big bear trap, with a speedy correction to the range of the 20-60$.
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April 13, 2013, 11:45:25 AM
 #9

So called spike ($260) and so called chrash ($55) was just a manipulation done by very same people. I strongly believe that manipulation directly or indirectly connected to ASICs sellers. If we are able to get last two weeks BFL and AVALON filled orders for their ASICs, we will be able to know more about this two weeks spike and chrash. And I don't believe that BTC/USD prices will ever hit $40 again.

Single digits?
No, nay never!

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April 13, 2013, 11:58:57 AM
 #10

So called spike ($260) and so called chrash ($55) was just a manipulation done by very same people. I strongly believe that manipulation directly or indirectly connected to ASICs sellers. If we are able to get last two weeks BFL and AVALON filled orders for their ASICs, we will be able to know more about this two weeks spike and chrash. And I don't believe that BTC/USD prices will ever hit $40 again.

Single digits?
No, nay never!

Never ? Of course they will, bitcoin will never reach the 21 million coins. It's obvious that for 2130 bitcoin won't be used, and better designed cryptocurrencies will.
The BTC/USD never going to hit 40$ again ?, they almost hit that yesteday(in some exchanges even 30$ no ?), so..  Grin  Grin
The volatility of the market is pretty high, from 120 to 60 or even 40-20$ now is just a matter of hours, as It has been seen. If this is a bull trap, and I'm confident It's, we will see 50$-40$ for sure, at least for some time.
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April 13, 2013, 12:02:28 PM
 #11

I believe Bitcoin will hits single digits in few months (most likely in a month).

Crash is already started, and we only need avalanche of bad news to keep it going.

There are some worrying things already:
0. bitcoin price goes up because of speculation that more and more people will want it. it worked for a while, when price was going up all the time. who would not want something that only goes up in value like crazy. however now people see how volatile and risky bitcoin is, new people will less likely to come.
1. mtgox performance issues. people should realise by now that in event of sudden crash, they may not be able to sell their coins until it hits bottom, because of lags and outages.
2. bitcoin 24 (biggest euro market) fuck up. something tells me this will end very bad.
3. bfl delays, which most likely make their miners unprofitable when they finally deliver (asumming price will keep dropping)
4. soon probably we will get some negative media coverage that are result on recent crash. we got one in poland already:
http://waluty.onet.pl/bitcoin-najwieksza-farsa-internetu,18892,5465415,news-detal
this was no 1 news story on biggest polish news site.
5. cyprus fiasco. that was most stupid speculation ever. somebody notices that few obscure iOS ranked up in spain, no context is given (how those apps performed in longer term, or are they new?), and concluded that people in cyprus want to go into bitcoin. story got even to media. some people in cyprus lost their savings and others got their money frozen, why you expect them to buy bitcoin? probably some will want their money out of banks but that's it. if you lost money at bank why would you throw them at something far more risky
6. nobody will want to hold money in bitcoin if they will be losing value every day.
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April 13, 2013, 12:04:16 PM
 #12

however now people see how volatile and risky bitcoin is, new people will less likely to come.

you're assuming "people" are as ignorant as you, and bought in without having done any research on their new investment. some, but I shudder for humanity to think all would have done that.

Besides, what generally happens when people buy into something and get burned is they either sell and forget it, or hold, wait in hope for a recovery, and do their due diligence on it in the meantime. Anyone who does the latter is going to remain, I'd say.
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April 13, 2013, 12:06:50 PM
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however now people see how volatile and risky bitcoin is, new people will less likely to come.

you're assuming "people" are as ignorant as you, and bought in without having done any research on their new investment. some, but I shudder for humanity to think all would have done that.
i watch bitcoin for about 2 years now, i bought some when bubble started and sold them before it crashed with big profit. what actually makes you think i am ignorant?
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April 13, 2013, 12:07:58 PM
 #14

however now people see how volatile and risky bitcoin is, new people will less likely to come.

you're assuming "people" are as ignorant as you, and bought in without having done any research on their new investment. some, but I shudder for humanity to think all would have done that.
i watch bitcoin for about 2 years now, i bought some when bubble started and sold them before it crashed with big profit. what actually makes you think i am ignorant?

Alright, my apologies. I saw 41 posts and assumed you were a green newcomer that just discovered BTC is risky.
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April 13, 2013, 12:48:07 PM
 #15

I don't think so either.

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April 13, 2013, 01:57:04 PM
 #16

I posted on another thread a possible scenario

I voted same as now, but would add with much more volatility. Has anyone considered that both the ultra bears and ultra bulls could be right here? One possible scenario a brutal bear market into the low double digits or even the single digits to be followed by a mega bull market into the six digits.

Wave (1) of [III] just completed at the recent high followed wave (2) of [III] (brutal bear) followed by wave (3) of [III] (mega bull).

Single digits to be followed by six digits is actually possible with Bitcoin.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
GotBitCoins
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April 13, 2013, 03:06:04 PM
 #17

I lived enough years to know that nobody can predict the future of a market - it will do what it will do.

This was a mega bubble like the world has never experienced before and it is possible that just because of this fact by the time this correction is over - bitcoin price shall be less than 1$, less than 10 cents, etc.

It's possible!

For most of the crypto nerds - this is the first bubble that they are going through. Therefore they have no idea how all bubbles are the same - people are talking about how "this time it's different", newspapers and TV is full of this. And then after the bubble explodes - people still believe it's gonna be over real soon and soon we shall go over 250$. But a bubble is a vicious thing - after few days, it goes up again - and lurs people to believe that they are missing the train (the infamous "suckers rally") and that here it goes up up again.... and then comes the realization that it goes no where and it drops real fast. And the sentiment is going to be so negative then we could find bitcoin trading at 10-15$. Eventually, it goes down, down, down into oblivion. Long time after this forum is dead, after bitcoin is away from the main focus, after all is said and gone - you can buy it for 10 cents...

It's possible!

Life is so random that this scenario is possible and also the scenario according to which one bitcoin goes to 100,000$ is possible.

GotBitCoins.
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April 13, 2013, 03:37:57 PM
 #18

Quote
Single digits believers thread



LOL
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April 13, 2013, 03:53:11 PM
 #19

Low of $8.50 later on this summer/early fall.  The long slow slide has just begun

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April 13, 2013, 04:33:35 PM
 #20

I don't "believe" in single digits since I realize everything is just a chance.

Single digits are a strong possibility now, hell even fractional digits are possible.
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