This is misleading:
"About 0.5% to 2% of blocks in one day will get orphaned."
Since this is a disussion about transactions, it seems to imply that 0.5% to 2% of transactions per day that are confirmed will become unconfirmed.
agreeing with danny that ultimately there is a 0.5%-2% BLOCKS get orphans.
but to clarify
so those tx's in that block do return to being unconfirmed which is a temporary issue because sooner or later they are added to a new accepted block.
however there is a
as said in previous post (on a good no drama day) in 0.004% or 0.25% chance of the tx not being added to the next block for either malicious reason or unintentionally struck off by how the network works.
example of where transactions are not added to the next block could be causes such as
Different peers can have different transactions in their memory pool.
plus other factors
so the ultimate worry(in regards to transactions) is alot less than 2% and far less than 0.5%(these numbers are about blocks, not tx's). and more so in the 0.004% risk area. not ever getting confirmed.
"at least 12 blocks for high-value transactions"
Twelve confirmations?! That's ridiculous. I'd trust a $10 million transactions with someone I didn't trust at all with only 5 ro 6 confirmations.
also agreeing with danny..
in a normal no drama day (no new soft/hard fork event activation or high orphan rate)
6 is usually the maximum.
the only possibly time to think about waiting 2 hours (12 blocks+) would be when something controversial (high orphan count) is occuring, which is usually only a once every couple year event, so it should not be wrote as if its a normal expectation.. to think about daily...
but maybe wrote as a sidenote to people to expand the confirms they usually wait for if the blockchain is in the middle of a hard/soft feature upgrade that appears to be controversial on the activation day
kind of like saying..
you dont need to boil your water every to want a drink, but if you have precious children you could wait for the water to boil if you worry about their health. but maybe when there are some water pipes being replaced in the water network every couple years, then get more concerned about doubling your efforts
