Prediction for this coming week, BTC to $150 by Friday 19-04-2013

[Brushan]

WOW... I'm amazed also. Based on your brief posting history here I figured you would be one of our new permabears. Seems you are more reasonable than that. I think being perma anything is a tad extreme, leaves no room for error. hehe

I've never been perma-anything other than perma-right
So far, I haven't been wrong about a single prediction I've made on this forum yet.

I held when people were selling at 160 and 190.
I sold at 235 the morning before the bubble burst.
When it burst and dropped to 150, people said buy, but I said it would continue to sub-100.
At 79 I bought up and sold at 100+.
I correctly stated yesterday's run-up to 130 was a bull trap, and it's since dropped to 100.

I've been right every single time, and I will be right on this. We will see 150+ by week's end, possibly 160. From there it will stabilize and slowly appreciate, no bubble burst this time

So do you still think that "we will see 150+ by week's end" ?

Looks like the self assigned perma-right title is gone.

[rpietila]

I don't think the bears have proven anything, it's just the bulls are, for some reasons, reluctant to advance as of now.

These bulls are tame oxen, moo moo.. I am proud to have bought BTC500 last night (UTC) at $80-$90 range. Do you actually think you will get to buy these coins easily when it starts to run? If you are gone for good, au revoir. Just please don't flock the entrances the way you flock the exits. I start to wonder if everyone here is trading a <BTC1,000 position as they seem to be able to go in and out several times a day...

[BubbleBoy]

I can easily buy 500@50 in this market. But why would I want that ? The rocket is landing:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en-GB#q=bitcoin%2C%20buy%20bitcoins&date=today%207-d&cmpt=q

[rpietila]

I can easily buy 500@50 in this market. But why would I want that ? The rocket is landing:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en-GB#q=bitcoin%2C%20buy%20bitcoins&date=today%207-d&cmpt=q

If you think the probability of bitcoin going to $300k is less than 1/6000 of it going to $0, yes, you should not buy at these levels.

I think it is well over .1%, which makes it an incredible buy, but to each his own.

[oakpacific]

I don't think the bears have proven anything, it's just the bulls are, for some reasons, reluctant to advance as of now.

These bulls are tame oxen, moo moo.. I am proud to have bought BTC500 last night (UTC) at $80-$90 range. Do you actually think you will get to buy these coins easily when it starts to run? If you are gone for good, au revoir. Just please don't flock the entrances the way you flock the exits. I start to wonder if everyone here is trading a <BTC1,000 position as they seem to be able to go in and out several times a day...

Sorry, are you referring to me or no one in particular?

[BubbleBoy]

@rpietila, you just disclosed that you lost 15-20.000$ nominal value in a single day, but rationalized that the loss is not real since you can't get back in easily at large volumes. I objected that the loss is very much real, and it's easy to get 500 coins in this market without much slippage.

A loss is a loss, it doesn't matter what you and I think the future will be. Sure, if it goes back up you recover and then some, but you still have a lost opportunity, you could have made the same money with a lower investment or double profit with the same investment.

@OP, change title to $15 and you can be perma-right again. No wories, your secret is safe with us.

[rpietila]

Sorry, are you referring to me or no one in particular?

Anyone with more than a truckload of money, would be better off just buying at sub-$100 levels, as otherwise he would probably end up with less bitcoins. I don't know, whether I am referring to you. Am I?  

[rpietila]

@rpietila, you just disclosed that you lost 15-20.000$ nominal value in a single day, but rationalized that the loss is not real since you can't get back in easily at large volumes. I objected that the loss is very much real, and it's easy to get 500 coins in this market without much slippage.

A loss is a loss, it doesn't matter what you think the future will be. Sure, if it goes back up you recover and then some, but you still have a lost opportunity, you could have made the same money with a lower investment or double profit with the same investment.

The problem with me, is that I don't think in terms of fiat. I switched to silver in 1/2006 and bitcoin in 3/2013. I haven't made a loss in my currency. OK, I admit that if bitcoin "goes up", I still feel richer, so perhaps my problem is beyond curable.

Also, I don't use Mt.Gox for coin acquisition. It is way too risky for an old school guy like me. The greatest I bought in Bitstamp in March was about BTC1,500 per day, and that was 37% of the exchange's volume during the period. I repeat, in my experience, getting coin was difficult during the runup from $50 on. Glad to be back here!

[oakpacific]

Sorry, are you referring to me or no one in particular?

Anyone with more than a truckload of money, would be better off just buying at sub-$100 levels, as otherwise he would probably end up with less bitcoins. I don't know, whether I am referring to you. Am I?  

Grrrr...typical Finn. But yeah, I agree with you there, my status is more like that of Roni though, I did buy some(heck, I even sucker bought at $170 when it was all the way down, although I was buying back my position sold at $190),  but I mostly spend my day trying to arbitrage by catching people off-guard, Gox actually worked surprisingly well today, this combined with the volatility allowed me to offset my loss through the arbitrage(technically not loss as I am still vastly in black).

[bootlace]

Hehe another case where Bitcoin seems to have humbled an ultra-confident/border line cocky investor who thought he was invincible.  As for the "well it's going to skyrocket anyways, doesnt matter what level I bought" argument, it is a logical fallacy that seeks to comfort people who made a bad trade. As someone already pointed out, the opportunity cost at having missing out on acquiring more coins at cheaper prices can't easily be discounted and thrown to the side. I see this same line of thinking in the precious metals space, and it's just wrong. You bought in too high, admit it like a man and move on, it's nothing to be ashamed of.

[rpietila]

Hehe another case where Bitcoin seems to have humbled an ultra-confident/border line cocky investor who thought he was invincible.  As for the "well it's going to skyrocket anyways, doesnt matter what level I bought" argument, it is a logical fallacy that seeks to comfort people who made a bad trade. As someone already pointed out, the opportunity cost at having missing out on acquiring more coins at cheaper prices can't easily be discounted and thrown to the side. I see this same line of thinking in the precious metals space, and it's just wrong. You bought in too high, admit it like a man and move on, it's nothing to be ashamed of.

You think a silver investor in 2008 can be humbled by anything? Oh well, perhaps, but in that case he would have ceased to be a silver investor back then.

I think what gives me the confidence is above all the following facts:
- I only invest what I can lose, I mean, lose, meaning ZERO.
- Since I own gold, silver and bitcoins, the probability of all crashing at the same time, is ... umm. .. not so big        
- I don't leverage or short = peace of mind (except with peanuts)
- I can earn more than I spend.

You can do what is good for you, but don't label people cocky just for the reason that they want to buy more bitcoins even though they already have some. I don't have the position of another poster, who could make BTC200 become BTC600 during the crash. You seem to have no idea how conservative rich people are. Losing 100% if an exchange goes down, is bad. "Losing" 80% of the "value" on top of +2000% gains is an inevitability.

[Hfleer]

I can easily buy 500@50 in this market. But why would I want that ? The rocket is landing:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en-GB#q=bitcoin%2C%20buy%20bitcoins&date=today%207-d&cmpt=q

If you think the probability of bitcoin going to $300k is less than 1/6000 of it going to $0, yes, you should not buy at these levels.

I think it is well over .1%, which makes it an incredible buy, but to each his own.

Are you sure that's specific enough?  How about if you think there's a 3/700 chance of it going to 579, and you can't dance the jig, you should buy.  Otherwise sell.

[dandirk]

Looks like the self assigned perma-right title is gone.

Yeah looks like he is an internet tough guy... Changed his title and edited his posts to say 1.5 lol  (or there is an evil admin on the loose).

I can never take someone seriously if they can't admit they were wrong once in a while.

[bootlace]

Hehe another case where Bitcoin seems to have humbled an ultra-confident/border line cocky investor who thought he was invincible.  As for the "well it's going to skyrocket anyways, doesnt matter what level I bought" argument, it is a logical fallacy that seeks to comfort people who made a bad trade. As someone already pointed out, the opportunity cost at having missing out on acquiring more coins at cheaper prices can't easily be discounted and thrown to the side. I see this same line of thinking in the precious metals space, and it's just wrong. You bought in too high, admit it like a man and move on, it's nothing to be ashamed of.

You think a silver investor in 2008 can be humbled by anything? Oh well, perhaps, but in that case he would have ceased to be a silver investor back then.

I think what gives me the confidence is above all the following facts:
- I only invest what I can lose, I mean, lose, meaning ZERO.
- Since I own gold, silver and bitcoins, the probability of all crashing at the same time, is ... umm. .. not so big        
- I don't leverage or short = peace of mind (except with peanuts)
- I can earn more than I spend.

You can do what is good for you, but don't label people cocky just for the reason that they want to buy more bitcoins even though they already have some. I don't have the position of another poster, who could make BTC200 become BTC600 during the crash. You seem to have no idea how conservative rich people are. Losing 100% if an exchange goes down, is bad. "Losing" 80% of the "value" on top of +2000% gains is an inevitability.

I was referring to the OP as 'cocky' not you, he seemed to have a mind set that he could do no wrong, which is very wrong mindset for any investor no matter how wise. Following your diary posts, I'm sure you're a wise investor as well so don't take my latest statements personally. But let's call a spade a spade, for example I've been buying gold at the 1600 in recent months, but will be the first to admit that it was too early (give the huge drop last couple days) even if I do think it will go higher long term. Something people on this forum don't seem to understand that making the 'right' moves at the 'right' time doesn't necessarily mean it was the wisest decision at the time. This might sound a little contradictory to what I was saying earlier, but the point here is not that trading perfectly makes you godly or that few bad trades makes you a fool, it's the longer goal, the strategy at reaching it, and steps to execute it that is important. So my main objection is with gloating..

[BubbleBoy]

You need to take on risks to make money, especially in a zero-sum market like this. So buying "too early" does not make you a fool, nobody has psychic powers, catching falling knives, hindsight is 20/20 etc.

However you can't stick your head in the sand and claim you view the world in bitcoin-only colors. There is no price stickiness in bitcoins, no matter how many you have when it's time to spend them you will see people give you twice more stuff for twice more bitcoins (unless you plan on taking them in the grave). So any strategy that leads you to twice more bitcoins in the long run is preferable, and failure to seize the opportunity is a loss, pure and simple. Accept the loss as part of a calculated risk and improve your strategy.

Moving large amounts on small exchanges is not the best strategy, especially if you are not panicky. Gox is decent when there's no panic and you can sink millions without bending it. Perhaps you have personal reasons for avoiding them.

[rpietila]

I was referring to the OP as 'cocky' not you, he seemed to have a mind set that he could do no wrong

Ah, there was no argument after all   I am most of the time perfectly wrong, but still seem to do just fine because of my resilience.

Something people on this forum don't seem to understand that making the 'right' moves at the 'right' time doesn't necessarily mean it was the wisest decision at the time.

There are several approaches, I can't even name them all. I have a sort-of glossary of trading strategies in the making, but I have only formulated the following so far:
1. buy (or dca) and hold
2. buy once, and sell according to predetermined schedule (of time, or exch.rate)
3. trade swings, with rapid buyback
4. only buy upmoves (minimum btc holding risk, catches 25-50% of the gains)
5. arbitrage

People who are near and dear to me, have suggested that I should "take profits and let the freebies run". This is a valid strategy for non-professionals. We professionals do not subscribe to sunk cost fallacy. For me the exchange rate loss of a $million is as real, regardless whether I had bought the coins for $1 or $100. If I would employ the strategies #3-#4 above, this would be seppuku time. But I don't. My strategy is #1 & #5, with a small dip into #3, and I am doing fine with very little risk, measured in BTC. Nothing, save the abject and total failure of the protocol, can take away a significant percentage of my bitcoins. If Bitcoin is not destroyed, I will be a force to be reckoned with. Even destroying me does not change this fact, according to my understanding of how Bitcoin works.

If Bitcoin fails, I will still be able to buy my weekly bottle of Riesling. Stick to your own trading strategy, and if ever you make it big, you will lean towards my thinking, perhaps even without knowing it.

[bootlace]

If Bitcoin fails, I will still be able to buy my weekly bottle of Riesling. Stick to your own trading strategy, and if ever you make it big, you will lean towards my thinking, perhaps even without knowing it.

Seems your goal is similar to the Winklevoss twins, accumulating loads to have a decent shot to go from well-off/rich to being super rich - so I can understand your strategy. There are others who try to trade Bitcoin as a kind of job which they derive their 'salary' from and those people will trade more aggressively. Then there are those that buy it as a lottery ticket, saying they don't care really what happens and just hope their 10 BTC can one day be 1 million years from now.

Each of these strategies are different and none are necessarily better than the other, just different goals/levels of risk/expectations.

I personally find that Bitcoin moves with a lot of momentum - that applies to both up and down movements. When it is going up you want to ride that as far as it can go...not trying to magically find the peak to sell at (it's okay selling 20% off the peak during a crash). Once the bubble has popped and it's on it way down, you really want to let it crash as low as possible and wait out to buy in again (its okay buying 20%-50% higher than the absolute bottom price if you are confident its about to enter a major phase up). I could obviously be wrong, but that's a trading strategy I'm comfortable with as I do believe in the boom/bust cycle of hype.

[MarKusRomanus]

WOW... I'm amazed also. Based on your brief posting history here I figured you would be one of our new permabears. Seems you are more reasonable than that. I think being perma anything is a tad extreme, leaves no room for error. hehe

I've never been perma-anything other than perma-right
So far, I haven't been wrong about a single prediction I've made on this forum yet.

I held when people were selling at 160 and 190.
I sold at 235 the morning before the bubble burst.
When it burst and dropped to 150, people said buy, but I said it would continue to sub-100.
At 79 I bought up and sold at 100+.
I correctly stated yesterday's run-up to 130 was a bull trap, and it's since dropped to 100.

I've been right every single time, and I will be right on this. We will see 150+ by week's end, possibly 160. From there it will stabilize and slowly appreciate, no bubble burst this time

So do you still think that "we will see 150+ by week's end" ?

Looks like the self assigned perma-right title is gone.

Actually He wasn't that far off, you were premature to state this.  Here it is Friday the 19th and we had a high of $136 so far.

[rpietila]

If Bitcoin fails, I will still be able to buy my weekly bottle of Riesling. Stick to your own trading strategy, and if ever you make it big, you will lean towards my thinking, perhaps even without knowing it.

Seems your goal is similar to the Winklevoss twins, accumulating loads to have a decent shot to go from well-off/rich to being super rich - so I can understand your strategy. There are others who try to trade Bitcoin as a kind of job which they derive their 'salary' from and those people will trade more aggressively. Then there are those that buy it as a lottery ticket, saying they don't care really what happens and just hope their 10 BTC can one day be 1 million years from now.

Each of these strategies are different and none are necessarily better than the other, just different goals/levels of risk/expectations.

I personally find that Bitcoin moves with a lot of momentum - that applies to both up and down movements. When it is going up you want to ride that as far as it can go...not trying to magically find the peak to sell at (it's okay selling 20% off the peak during a crash). Once the bubble has popped and it's on it way down, you really want to let it crash as low as possible and wait out to buy in again (its okay buying 20%-50% higher than the absolute bottom price if you are confident its about to enter a major phase up). I could obviously be wrong, but that's a trading strategy I'm comfortable with as I do believe in the boom/bust cycle of hype.

Thank you. This is one of the best posts I've read today.

I want to share my secret with you. This gives me confidence to buy and hold bitcoins. Instead of making money myself, I want to make the dream come true. The universe has that dream, so it will be fulfilled regardless, I just feel it is my place to be right now.

[GotBitCoins]

If Bitcoin fails, I will still be able to buy my weekly bottle of Riesling. Stick to your own trading strategy, and if ever you make it big, you will lean towards my thinking, perhaps even without knowing it.

Seems your goal is similar to the Winklevoss twins, accumulating loads to have a decent shot to go from well-off/rich to being super rich - so I can understand your strategy. There are others who try to trade Bitcoin as a kind of job which they derive their 'salary' from and those people will trade more aggressively. Then there are those that buy it as a lottery ticket, saying they don't care really what happens and just hope their 10 BTC can one day be 1 million years from now.

Each of these strategies are different and none are necessarily better than the other, just different goals/levels of risk/expectations.

I personally find that Bitcoin moves with a lot of momentum - that applies to both up and down movements. When it is going up you want to ride that as far as it can go...not trying to magically find the peak to sell at (it's okay selling 20% off the peak during a crash). Once the bubble has popped and it's on it way down, you really want to let it crash as low as possible and wait out to buy in again (its okay buying 20%-50% higher than the absolute bottom price if you are confident its about to enter a major phase up). I could obviously be wrong, but that's a trading strategy I'm comfortable with as I do believe in the boom/bust cycle of hype.

Thank you. This is one of the best posts I've read today.

I want to share my secret with you. This gives me confidence to buy and hold bitcoins. Instead of making money myself, I want to make the dream come true. The universe has that dream, so it will be fulfilled regardless, I just feel it is my place to be right now.

Mister market won't give you easy money! just when everybody start to realize that they should buy at 50 and sell at 150, the market shall go down to 50 and then slowly but surely continue down, down, down... - and it is then that you may give up after losing tons of money. Don't expect the market to let you ride the volatility again - it will fool you! It will - because the minute everybody realize and adopt a strategy - it doesn't work any more! that's life! No easy money and no gifts and no presents.

GotBitCoins.