Remember the exponential run-up

[kingcrimson]

A couple days before the 'correction' someone calculated that the price was doubling at an exponential rate, going back since 2011. This was an incredibly accurate mathematic analysis. Every time it doubled it took half the time, over a 2 year period. Then they calculated we were only a few days from singularity.

The math was correct that it certainly was leading up to something big, but it wasn't singularity, it was an unsustainable 'correction'.

I am wondering though how that model was so accurate. Was it just a coincidence or a human pattern at work?

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[Jaw3bmasters]

It was a unicorn.

No, seriously.

[Ekaros]

A couple days before the 'correction' someone calculated that the price was doubling at an exponential rate, going back since 2011. This was an incredibly accurate mathematic analysis. Every time it doubled it took half the time, over a 2 year period. Then they calculated we were only a few days from singularity.

The math was correct that it certainly was leading up to something big, but it wasn't singularity, it was an unsustainable 'correction'.

I am wondering though how that model was so accurate. Was it just a coincidence or a human pattern at work?

With any data and sufficient time you can find infinite amount of patterns.

Also scaling functions to work is pretty easy.

[arepo]

This was an incredibly accurate mathematic analysis.

this is not the kind of thing that can be baldly asserted.

[Kazu]

A couple days before the 'correction' someone calculated that the price was doubling at an exponential rate, going back since 2011. This was an incredibly accurate mathematic analysis. Every time it doubled it took half the time, over a 2 year period. Then they calculated we were only a few days from singularity.

The math was correct that it certainly was leading up to something big, but it wasn't singularity, it was an unsustainable 'correction'.

I am wondering though how that model was so accurate. Was it just a coincidence or a human pattern at work?

If it doubled and took half the time each time, we would double again in a several of weeks, not a couple of days. Idk if thats 'singularity', but it is what it is.

[Flappy]

Question:  How long does it typically take for the USD exchange rate of bitcoin to double?

Answer:

Start_rate	End_rate	#_of_days	Dates
$3.125	$6.25	194	2011-12-01 to 2012-06-15
$6.25	$12.5	163	2012-06-15 to 2012-11-25
$12.5	$25	79	2012-11-25 to 2013-02-12
$25	$50	30	2013-02-12 to 2013-03-18
$50	$100	14	2013-03-18 to 2013-04-01
$100	$200	8	2013-04-01 to 2013-04-09

... <snip>

[SlipperySlope]

Here is my analysis.

The way up ...
   4.16 December 19, 2011: 8.31 July 16, 2012
  16.62 January 21, 2013 - doubling time 189 days
  33.25 March 1, 2013 - doubling time 59 days
  66.50 March 25, 2013 - doubling time 24 days
 133.00 April 3, 2013 - doubling time 9 days
 266.00 Wednesday, April 10, 2013 - doubling time 7 days

Note that the doubling time gets shorter near the peak - this is the double exponential growth that is a marker for bitcoin bubbles so far.

In the previous bitcoin bubble, prices doubled to the peak in 4 days. Apparently, once we sustain at several rapid doubles, the peak is near when doubling time is 4-7 days.

[ManBearPig]

This was an incredibly accurate mathematic analysis.

this is not the kind of thing that can be baldly asserted.

Then I suggest sir, with all due respect that you put a wig on.

[Bitsaurus]

This was an incredibly accurate mathematic analysis.

this is not the kind of thing that can be baldly asserted.

Then I suggest sir, with all due respect that you put a wig on.

Lipstick on a pig.