Secret Monster Wedge?

[Kazu]

* = Gox Shutdown

I'm not saying that technical analysis is everything, but I still figured some people here would enjoy this. Sorry if the chart is a bit messy, I made it in paint (lol).

The theory is that the gox shutdown time does not indicate a sideways trend and patterns would be more apparent if we didn't treat time gox is down as "time passed."

Once one does so a "monster wedge" becomes apparent, which shares a "top" of a pre-gox-shutdown wedge. That wedge has a "tip" of about $170-ish, potentially indicating that the huge fall below this valuation was simply due to a panic. However, it also means that $170 is potentially a major resistance level.

Thoughts?

[NikolaTesla]

So you're saying $170 should be the true valuation?

[proudhon]

We're already breaking to the downside, and sell orders on MtGox are the highest they've been since late November/early December of last year.  People are sending their coins to MtGox who haven't had coins there in a long time because they're worried it's time to cash out.  The magnitude of the group behavior behind this shouldn't be ignored, as it indicates a long slow continuation down.  We're witnessing a very large bull trap.

[BitcoinAshley]

Perhaps we reach $170 mid-week and encounter mad-resistance, sit there over the weekend.

Or, we bounce up to just under 200 by mid-week, then thursday+ friday bounce back to $170 for support, sit there for the weekend...

Lol.

Problem is, with so much money coming in, you can't realistically expect it to sit at a support for any longer than a few days.

[Kazu]

So you're saying $170 should be the true valuation?

I'm saying that my technical analysis is telling me that ~$170 is likely to be the 'high' of this next week. And once it breaks, it is likely to bounce up to $200 (or some other resistance, I haven't determined the exact level) making that the new 'high' and then dropping back down and forming a new wedge with $170 being the initial 'low.'

[wobber]

Perhaps we reach $170 mid-week and encounter mad-resistance, sit there over the weekend.

Or, we bounce up to just under 200 by mid-week, then thursday+ friday bounce back to $170 for support, sit there for the weekend...

Lol.

Problem is, with so much money coming in, you can't realistically expect it to sit at a support for any longer than a few days.

What money?

[Spekulatius]

Perhaps we reach $170 mid-week and encounter mad-resistance, sit there over the weekend.

Or, we bounce up to just under 200 by mid-week, then thursday+ friday bounce back to $170 for support, sit there for the weekend...

Lol.

Problem is, with so much money coming in, you can't realistically expect it to sit at a support for any longer than a few days.

What money?

28000 customers in MtGox's verification queue. (last I heard give or take a few 1000)

[proudhon]

Perhaps we reach $170 mid-week and encounter mad-resistance, sit there over the weekend.

Or, we bounce up to just under 200 by mid-week, then thursday+ friday bounce back to $170 for support, sit there for the weekend...

Lol.

Problem is, with so much money coming in, you can't realistically expect it to sit at a support for any longer than a few days.

If there's money coming into the exchanges it isn't showing up anywhere where people can detect it.  What is coming into the exchanges are tons of bitcoins.  The MtGox order book has more bitcoins on it now than it's had since November/December of last year.  I agree that the price won't sit at "support" for very long, because it's going to break very strongly to the downside again.

[Mouser]

Proudhon, I have a few questions for you.

Do you think BTC is enough of a threat to the mainstream fractional usury currencies that the centralbanks would bankroll (pay) people to go on BTC forums and give consistently negative opinions about everything to do with BTC?

Do you believe the 266 to 55 crash was orchestrated by a handful of operators trying to crash BTC completely?

For the record, do you yourself own any BTC? Tens, hundreds or thousands?

[proudhon]

I guess I should finally answer these questions since they keep getting politely asked.  Here goes...

Do you think BTC is enough of a threat to the mainstream fractional usury currencies that the centralbanks would bankroll (pay) people to go on BTC forums and give consistently negative opinions about everything to do with BTC?

No, not right now.

Do you believe the 266 to 55 crash was orchestrated by a handful of operators trying to crash BTC completely?

I just don't have a belief about it, really.  I think it's plausible to have been orchestrated, but I don't have a confident view on what purpose.  I also think it's plausible that it was just the weakness of the infrastructure breaking under strain of interest.

For the record, do you yourself own any BTC? Tens, hundreds or thousands?

Yes, I do own some.  I don't want to say how many.

[Kazu]

Yes, I do own some.  I don't want to say how many.

LOL! HE BOUGHT! 

Just a few days ago he said in chat that he didn't own any.

[Mouser]

I guess I should finally answer these questions since they keep getting politely asked.  Here goes...

Do you think BTC is enough of a threat to the mainstream fractional usury currencies that the centralbanks would bankroll (pay) people to go on BTC forums and give consistently negative opinions about everything to do with BTC?

No, not right now.

Do you believe the 266 to 55 crash was orchestrated by a handful of operators trying to crash BTC completely?

I just don't have a belief about it, really.  I think it's plausible to have been orchestrated, but I don't have a confident view on what purpose.  I also think it's plausible that it was just the weakness of the infrastructure breaking under strain of interest.

For the record, do you yourself own any BTC? Tens, hundreds or thousands?

Yes, I do own some.  I don't want to say how many.

Thank you.

[arepo]

your trendlines are off. remember, two points define a line, so you need at least two supports. the top line on the "monster wedge" has only 2 pt of contact and is therefore rather arbitrary. 'real' triangle consolidation also necessarily exhibits decreasing volume. what actually is going on is two small bearish pennants, or one large one -- depending on the scale:

-===-





-===-

these triangles are easy to spot because of the consistently decreasing volume. the second chart shows a clear, large bearish pennant, often known as a classic 'bulltrap'. get ready for a breakout downward, it has just begun.

i expect to break under $90 before the end of the day, and then down from there.

(while i was making up those charts, i was afraid the price would drop faster than i could publicly make the prediction! )

[Kazu]

I don't have a screenshot of the chat on Friday when Proudhon said he didn't own any, but:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=54272.msg784670#msg784670

This is proof he at least bought in the last month

[randrace]

What is coming into the exchanges are tons of bitcoins.  The MtGox order book has more bitcoins on it now than it's had since November/December of last year.

There is another possible explanation for bitcoins moving to Gox other than that people are clamoring to dump.

I am fairly new to the market; I first bought at the start of March. After not trading on Gox for awhile, I just moved some BTC there this week. Let's say I am representative of a type of person that is new to bitcoin and have plans on Mt. Gox.

What's my (our) motivation for moving BTC to Mt. Gox this week:

1. We wanted to mess around during that free trading period.
2. We were long term investors who held during the last crash, and after experiencing some volatility, want to do some daytrading.
3. We are not interested in getting verified and sending BTC to Gox is the easiest way to get currency there.
4. We were initially skeptical/confused by the idea of sending USD to Gox and bought our first bitcoins from more user friendly venues like Bitfloor or Coinbase.
5. We have no idea what we are doing, but we want to do some buying and selling on Gox because we heard on NPR that is where the action is!

[molecular]

I'm not saying that technical analysis is everything, but I still figured some people here would enjoy this. Sorry if the chart is a bit messy, I made it in paint (lol).

I can recommend inkscape. It's an opensource vector editor (svg). Pretty easy to use, too. Just copy/paste your image from browser and use line tool to draw lines, then export image to png.

[proudhon]

What is coming into the exchanges are tons of bitcoins.  The MtGox order book has more bitcoins on it now than it's had since November/December of last year.

There is another possible explanation for bitcoins moving to Gox other than that people are clamoring to dump.

I am fairly new to the market; I first bought at the start of March. After not trading on Gox for awhile, I just moved some BTC there this week. Let's say I am representative of a type of person that is new to bitcoin and have plans on Mt. Gox.

What's my (our) motivation for moving BTC to Mt. Gox this week:

1. We wanted to mess around during that free trading period.
2. We were long term investors who held during the last crash, and after experiencing some volatility, want to do some daytrading.
3. We are not interested in getting verified and sending BTC to Gox is the easiest way to get currency there.
4. We were initially skeptical/confused by the idea of sending USD to Gox and bought our first bitcoins from more user friendly venues like Bitfloor or Coinbase.
5. We have no idea what we are doing, but we want to do some buying and selling on Gox because we heard on NPR that is where the action is!

All of those things are probably true.  Their cumulative effect is to push the price down.

[proudhon]

Yes, I do own some.  I don't want to say how many.

LOL! HE BOUGHT! 

Just a few days ago he said in chat that he didn't own any.

I'd really like somebody to dig up this chat, because I'm pretty sure I didn't say that.

[Kazu]

Yes, I do own some.  I don't want to say how many.

LOL! HE BOUGHT! 

Just a few days ago he said in chat that he didn't own any.

I'd really like somebody to dig up this chat, because I'm pretty sure I didn't say that.

On Btccharts. Dont try to hide it. Plus, I have that post from last month as well

[chrsjrcj]

We're already breaking to the downside, and sell orders on MtGox are the highest they've been since late November/early December of last year.  People are sending their coins to MtGox who haven't had coins there in a long time because they're worried it's time to cash out.  The magnitude of the group behavior behind this shouldn't be ignored, as it indicates a long slow continuation down.  We're witnessing a very large bull trap.

I actually can't see anything here to disagree with what proudhon said.