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Author Topic: So, everyone knows about Bitcoin now... why isn't the price going up?  (Read 4855 times)
bitcon
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April 16, 2013, 02:37:52 AM
 #41

I'll keep posting these until everyone understands what it means.  It answers the question in the thread title.



So, yes, lots of people know about bitcoin, but enough people who know about them and own some don't want them anymore.  The ask depth on MtGox is the highest it's been in 6 months and is a little more than 5x what it was just before the crash.  People were fooled into thinking the supply of bitcoins was low relative to the demand.  It isn't.  And over time we'll see the price reflect this fact as more and more people internalize it.  We will see low double digits, and when people get sufficiently off-put by that, we'll see the price collapse into the single digits.

summary: there's a bunch of idiots out there who are selling their coins cheap, then in a few years when Amazon.com starts accepting coins, these same ppl are gonna be the ppl kicking themselves. coins always move to stronger hands. always.  good for us long bulls.
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April 16, 2013, 08:50:26 AM
Last edit: April 16, 2013, 02:00:57 PM by jdbtracker
 #42

We must not forget about Bitcoins staying power, The true value of bitcoin is in the Encryption, it is unbreakable by modern computers; The SHA256-512 encryption  would require a computer with the mass of the solar system to crack by brute force... now that is security.  Not only is it protected by the latest encryption it is done twice, then it is distributed so you will have to crack everyone else's as-well and after that you have to keep up with the network. Smiley

Only quantum computers will be able to crack it and those are a few decades away.

Bitcoin was created for one amazing thing, to be able to transfer information from point A to point B securely and unstoppably... once the transaction is made it cannot be reversed, it merely uses the word currency throughout the paper.

The original white paper was called, Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, If you read the paper you will notice that the Bitcoin part... was an afterthought; What is described in the paper is a system to transfer any and I mean ANY currency securely without compromising the banking system within the digital domain.

the price of Bitcoin does not matter when all I want to do is send some money to my mom, or buy that new Nvidia Tesla processor for doing some simulations, many people have forgotten this, people have built a trading system around it because it has been decoupled from the banking system it was intended for, with no support they have created and built upon Bitcoins Cryptographic engine; how else are they to convert their real money into something that can be securely transferred over the digital frontier? no one else is giving them that opportunity so the Bitcoin community is building their own infrastructure and learning as best they can along the way... this will come back and bite the regular financial system in the ass.(more innovation in the Bitcoin community, better products, better selection)

Fact: The Bitcoin community has evolved Bitcoin to be functional, something that it really was not in the beginning, it needed the banking component to transfer financial Value.

Fact: People are treating this as if it was meant to be a commodity, of course they have, the media has propagated this myth creating uncertainty in what could possibly be the most secure system ever created.

Now that we have reached this point in Bitcoins development, now we must study why the price is fluctuating.

who are the producers of the bitcoins? The Bitcoin miners who maintain the integrity and security of the Bitcoin network. Do they have a right to set their prices for bitcoin?... you must remember that they have expended resources to earn their bitcoins, they do have that right. The market does have it's effects, but i'm pretty sure that an old Gold miner would not accept less value than they put in to find that Gold, they will trade at fair market value and not one satoshi below what it cost them to produce it.

The Bitcoin miners creating the liquidity within the market set the bottom price, They control a certain percentage of the exchange rate

Now who has the rest of the control over Bitcoins price?  The holders of regular national currencies; who because of the media hype do not understand the practicality and purpose behind this technology. they just buy,sell,low,high like idiots with absolutely no understanding of the market... these are newb traders! and they're coming in by the boatload! There is more of them coming in than educated Bitcoin community members, this is a problem.

the other? The people holding on to their bitcoins ready to dump them onto the market; This is a good thing, it creates liquidity... but it also crashes the price of bitcoins when people don't want to sit on their bitcoins waiting for a dangerously insecure exchange to have the buyers become available to buy those bitcoins. I believe this is a good thing because... those hoarders are dumping their stashes into the general market Smiley dwindling the amount of instability, allowing the system to reach an equilibrium between the early adopters and new adopters.

Another aspect of the price is due to Bitcoins customers(the people buying into bitcoin to have their transactions carried out... or the idiots who are planning a pump-n-dump).  now these customers are new they know very little of what they have to do, they don't know they can trade in smaller denominations, hence limiting the number of buyers on the market. They need to be educated on how to buy only the amount of bitcoins that they need to carry out a secure transaction from point A to point B, they need to be educated.

The exchanges are Bitcoins weak spot, They can be attacked to bring the system down... The banking component that Bitcoin was supposed to be mated to had to be built and the best practices of the financial sector are right now being learned by the exchange operators. this again causes instability, how this gets resolved it will be up to the ingenuity of the Bitcoin community to resolve.

Once an equilibrium is reached, the system will be fine, it will begin to operate as it was intended, but a good chunk of the ecosystem that Bitcoin was supposed to be working with is non-existent and only being built now.


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April 16, 2013, 10:25:22 AM
Last edit: April 16, 2013, 11:49:18 PM by Maged
 #43


Fact: The Bitcoin community has evolved Bitcoin to be functional, something that it really was not in the beginning, it needed the banking component to transfer financial information.

Fact: People are treating this as if it was meant to be a commodity, of course they have, the media has propagated this myth creating uncertainty in what could possibly be the most secure system ever created.



http://caribbeanrestaurantconcepts.com/stats/content/supcache/dwight-the-office-quotes-fact-1.jpg
Mod Note: Removed embeded image to a malicious site.

Fact:  Bears, Bulls, Beats, etc.

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April 16, 2013, 11:13:13 AM
 #44

Lots of people lost a LOT of money...
Did they though?  Although difficult to get an accurate picture due to goxlag I'd got the impression it took very little money to take the price down a long way because the bids evaporated on the way down as people realised they'd be able to get cheaper by waiting.

Are you counting those who bought high and still didn't sell as having 'lost'?  Your confidence that the game's over does not make it so. I'd be interested in your reasoning or figures behind the 'lots of people lost a Lot claim.
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April 16, 2013, 11:22:45 AM
 #45

I actually feel a lot better at todays price than  200+ days , more  solid , down to the earth feelings .
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April 16, 2013, 01:34:32 PM
 #46


Are you counting those who bought high and still didn't sell as having 'lost'?  Your confidence that the game's over does not make it so. I'd be interested in your reasoning or figures behind the 'lots of people lost a Lot claim.

Well, at least I can say that lots of people made a lot selling at the right time. Where did that lot come from?
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April 16, 2013, 01:42:32 PM
 #47

I'll keep posting these until everyone understands what it means.  It answers the question in the thread title.



So, yes, lots of people know about bitcoin, but enough people who know about them and own some don't want them anymore.  The ask depth on MtGox is the highest it's been in 6 months and is a little more than 5x what it was just before the crash.  People were fooled into thinking the supply of bitcoins was low relative to the demand.  It isn't.  And over time we'll see the price reflect this fact as more and more people internalize it.  We will see low double digits, and when people get sufficiently off-put by that, we'll see the price collapse into the single digits.

summary: there's a bunch of idiots out there who are selling their coins cheap, then in a few years when Amazon.com starts accepting coins, these same ppl are gonna be the ppl kicking themselves. coins always move to stronger hands. always.  good for us long bulls.

Hahahaha how new are you?
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April 16, 2013, 02:07:37 PM
 #48

It was fully my expectation that when "mainstream" news got out about Bitcoin that we'd see a lot more people buying in.  I see more and more people and companies wanting to use it, so why aren't we seeing a price increase?

I figure it's due to one of four reasons:
1) Lag time between hearing about it and actually buying some.
2) Difficulty in buying Bitcoins.
3) It was previously overvalued.
4) Many people have heard of it for the first time, and do not yet believe in it; they are waiting to "see what happens" before they dive in to the world of Bitcoin.

Thoughts?

Everyone knows about it but there is no working infrastructure. Gox is broken.
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April 16, 2013, 02:08:33 PM
 #49

It is nearly impossible to buy.
Mining is really the only way.   I wanted to buy 50k worth, you cannot.   The exchanges act like they are brokers also and none seem worthy of any trust whatsoever.   Most do not accept wire transfers (WTF???) and many suggest you go buy a money order?Huh?   What kind of legitimate business does that?
Basically, I would rather send $50k to that Nigerian General's wife that keeps emailing me.
Coinbase lets you buy plenty.
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April 16, 2013, 02:15:24 PM
 #50

I actually feel a lot better at todays price than  200+ days , more  solid , down to the earth feelings .


Yeah I know what you mean, it was so frantic in those days. It definitely feels like the hysteria is gone, and what do you know? the volume is back up, no one wanted to sell at 200, who knows how high it could have gone, but of course we know that answer now. Who the hell was jacking up the price? there was barely any volume during that time.

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April 16, 2013, 09:56:20 PM
 #51

I actually feel a lot better at todays price than  200+ days , more  solid , down to the earth feelings .


Yeah I know what you mean, it was so frantic in those days. It definitely feels like the hysteria is gone, and what do you know? the volume is back up, no one wanted to sell at 200, who knows how high it could have gone, but of course we know that answer now. Who the hell was jacking up the price? there was barely any volume during that time.
Volume has skyrocketed.  It just awes me that so many people are willing to sell right now than they were at 200.  If you were so confident in Bitcoin as to not sell at $200, why are you following herd mentality and selling at the low point?  Boggles my mind...
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April 16, 2013, 09:59:55 PM
 #52


Volume has skyrocketed.  It just awes me that so many people are willing to sell right now than they were at 200.  If you were so confident in Bitcoin as to not sell at $200, why are you following herd mentality and selling at the low point?  Boggles my mind...

Lost confidence.
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April 16, 2013, 10:17:39 PM
 #53

If I sell everything now I make a 30k profit, if I hold out I may make nothing
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April 17, 2013, 01:20:54 AM
 #54

Even after all the coverage very few people know about Bitcoin.

http://community.spiceworks.com/topic/321788-bitcoin-mining-scheme-foiled

Keep in mind those forums are for a community of IT professionals and barely anyone has a clue what bitcoins are.

As a side note SpiceWorks is a pretty awesome free solution to track IT inventory and maintain a ticket system among other things.
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April 17, 2013, 01:26:02 AM
 #55

I actually feel a lot better at todays price than  200+ days , more  solid , down to the earth feelings .


Yeah I know what you mean, it was so frantic in those days. It definitely feels like the hysteria is gone, and what do you know? the volume is back up, no one wanted to sell at 200, who knows how high it could have gone, but of course we know that answer now. Who the hell was jacking up the price? there was barely any volume during that time.
Volume has skyrocketed.  It just awes me that so many people are willing to sell right now than they were at 200.  If you were so confident in Bitcoin as to not sell at $200, why are you following herd mentality and selling at the low point?  Boggles my mind...

If you can convince people that the trend is down, even those only wanting BTC will be tempted to sell then re-buy cheaper to increase their holding in coins.  Conversely while the price was skyrocketing these same people likely didn't want to sell and be left out of the game.  I don't think most people make their buy or sell decisions based solely on what dollar value they place on their bitcoins vs what the current price is. 
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April 17, 2013, 03:00:42 AM
 #56

I actually feel a lot better at todays price than  200+ days , more  solid , down to the earth feelings .


Yeah I know what you mean, it was so frantic in those days. It definitely feels like the hysteria is gone, and what do you know? the volume is back up, no one wanted to sell at 200, who knows how high it could have gone, but of course we know that answer now. Who the hell was jacking up the price? there was barely any volume during that time.
Volume has skyrocketed.  It just awes me that so many people are willing to sell right now than they were at 200.  If you were so confident in Bitcoin as to not sell at $200, why are you following herd mentality and selling at the low point?  Boggles my mind...

If you can convince people that the trend is down, even those only wanting BTC will be tempted to sell then re-buy cheaper to increase their holding in coins.  Conversely while the price was skyrocketing these same people likely didn't want to sell and be left out of the game.  I don't think most people make their buy or sell decisions based solely on what dollar value they place on their bitcoins vs what the current price is. 

+1

I love your thinking! These people are gaining market share and re-envigorating Bitcoin with demand at the cost of bitcoin prices. Very interesting I do know that strategy, increase market share when the markets are low and keep on buying.

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April 17, 2013, 03:30:50 AM
 #57

We all just need to give Bitcoin a little push every day.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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April 17, 2013, 04:18:01 AM
 #58

Too many people "Waiting for cheap coins"

Sadddd
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April 17, 2013, 04:26:57 AM
 #59

I was promised cheap coins and I'll get them!  Angry
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April 17, 2013, 06:31:04 AM
 #60

I actually feel a lot better at todays price than  200+ days , more  solid , down to the earth feelings .


Yeah I know what you mean, it was so frantic in those days. It definitely feels like the hysteria is gone, and what do you know? the volume is back up, no one wanted to sell at 200, who knows how high it could have gone, but of course we know that answer now. Who the hell was jacking up the price? there was barely any volume during that time.
Volume has skyrocketed.  It just awes me that so many people are willing to sell right now than they were at 200.  If you were so confident in Bitcoin as to not sell at $200, why are you following herd mentality and selling at the low point?  Boggles my mind...
Fear.

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