Is bitcoin even still after the crash over valued???

[matthewh3]

If you look at the exponential moving averages for one and two year time scales you can see a long term correction between $30 to $20 possible -



And if you look at the simple moving averages for one and two years then you can see prices correcting long term to between $16.50 and $20.50 -



Most people (aka the market) thinks bitcoin is undervalued hence the recent rally.  Maybe bitcoin is undervalued but the system as a whole has a long way to grow before it can reach and stabilise above its next major mile stone of market capitalisation above $30Billion (value of all above ground Silver).  Maybe bitcoin will crash and stablise @~>$20 and the media can all call bitcoin a bubble again   but bitcoin will continue.  As like bittorrent there's no real way to really kill bitcoin apart from turning off the whole worlds internet.

BTW:  Give me cheap bitcoins  

[matthewh3]

The moving averages don't match up to the mid August crash which is almost identical to this one so far. Otherwise really not sure what the value should be atm, it looks like the panic is coming to an end so the backing is more solid but there's only promises of an expanding infrastructure using Bitcoin so far and promises don't make something useful. I think Ripple may be causing some uncertainty too.

Yeah but Ripple could really help bitcoin while bitcoin doesn't offer Ripple anything special (borrowed from another thread).

[ElectricMucus]

I don't really see a bottom.

[matthewh3]

I don't really see a bottom.

If MtGox goes offline again (for any time long) or even if Bitstamp shuts down after BTC24 shuting down or any other major bitcoin FUD I can definitely see a floor of ~$30.00 being hit hard.

[ElectricMucus]

I don't really see a bottom.

If MtGox goes offline again (for any time long) or even if Bitstamp shuts down after BTC24 shuting down or any other major bitcoin FUD I can definitely see a floor of ~$30.00 being hit hard.

What's your basis for that assumption? Besides managing to use major, or even and FUD in the same sentence?

[matthewh3]

I don't really see a bottom.

If MtGox goes offline again (for any time long) or even if Bitstamp shuts down after BTC24 shuting down or any other major bitcoin FUD I can definitely see a floor of ~$30.00 being hit hard.

What's your basis for that assumption? Besides managing to use major, or even and FUD in the same sentence?

Now I see why "ignore" is highlighted next to your name in bright colours.  If you look at the charts you can see $30 is definitely possible for a good while yet even if the rally where to continue (for a while).  Yes I think bitcoin was undervalued but after the largest bitcoin exchange having to shut down under stress recently then all bitcoin needs is nudging off its pidgin stool to crash.  Although if you look at the post I don't think it'd be a bad thing for bitcoin long term and the one plus two year averages will continue to grow grow against USD inflation via the block reward inflation.  

[ElectricMucus]

I don't really see a bottom.

If MtGox goes offline again (for any time long) or even if Bitstamp shuts down after BTC24 shuting down or any other major bitcoin FUD I can definitely see a floor of ~$30.00 being hit hard.

What's your basis for that assumption? Besides managing to use major, or even and FUD in the same sentence?

Now I see why "ignore" is highlighted next to your name in bright colours.  If you look at the charts you can see $30 is definitely possible for a good while yet even if the rally where to continue (for a while).  Yes I think bitcoin was undervalued but after the largest bitcoin exchange having to shut down under stress recently then all bitcoin needs is nudging off its pidgin stool to crash.  Although if you look at the post I don't think it'd be a bad thing for bitcoin long term and the one plus two year averages will continue to grow grow against USD inflation via the block reward inflation.  

I still don't get how you can draw a floor at 30. I mean so long this bubble pops completely symmetric at the best.

[matthewh3]

The moving averages don't match up to the mid August crash which is almost identical to this one so far. Otherwise really not sure what the value should be atm, it looks like the panic is coming to an end so the backing is more solid but there's only promises of an expanding infrastructure using Bitcoin so far and promises don't make something useful. I think Ripple may be causing some uncertainty too.

Yeah but Ripple could really help bitcoin while bitcoin doesn't offer Ripple anything special (borrowed from another thread).

I've only really started reading up on it and the debate on its effect on Bitcoin is a big lump of posts but I find myself asking "why do we need Bitcoin if we have this?" so I'm guessing others are doing the same. The only real benefits I can see Bitcoin offering are:

A known rate of coin generation possibly better than PM and other commodity IOU's form trusted sources.
Possible for completely anonymous transactions.
Independent to the Ripple network.

I'd love to hear other points but don't want to derail the thread with a discussion on Ripple. It sounds like it could potentially become the default way of exchanging virtual value (currencies, stocks, shares, licenses, contracts, etc.) and make more or less all existing exchanges obsolete. If Bitcoin became the gold in that then... omfg, but if the system proves sound and your guaranteed of receiving real gold in exchange for your Ripple IOU's then I don't see where Bitcoin fits in.

Bitcoin has a place as a digital commodity (like gold/silver) and Ripple has a place of p2p credit expansion if it can take off.  Tho if you look at it bitcoin is for users as Ripple is for bankers/organisers.  I think if both Ripple and Bitcoin remain non mainstream then bitcoin will out live ripple but if both ripple and bitcoin become mainstream then yes bitcoin usage could in effect be a sideline compared to ripples usage in the curerrent fiat world.  Tho IMO I can see either the dollar or the yen pegged to gold by 2020'ish as we're not coming out of this 2008 economic crises any time soon.  These are new times and we've only lived under a fiat world wide banking economy since 1972 (when the US took the world off the gold standard to pay for the Vietnam war [if you ask why I blame America it was agreed after the British Empire collapsed after debt from WWI and WWII that the dollar would be pegged to gold while every other major currency would float against the dollar).

[matthewh3]

I don't really see a bottom.

If MtGox goes offline again (for any time long) or even if Bitstamp shuts down after BTC24 shuting down or any other major bitcoin FUD I can definitely see a floor of ~$30.00 being hit hard.

What's your basis for that assumption? Besides managing to use major, or even and FUD in the same sentence?

Now I see why "ignore" is highlighted next to your name in bright colours.  If you look at the charts you can see $30 is definitely possible for a good while yet even if the rally where to continue (for a while).  Yes I think bitcoin was undervalued but after the largest bitcoin exchange having to shut down under stress recently then all bitcoin needs is nudging off its pidgin stool to crash.  Although if you look at the post I don't think it'd be a bad thing for bitcoin long term and the one plus two year averages will continue to grow grow against USD inflation via the block reward inflation.  

I still don't get how you can draw a floor at 30. I mean so long this bubble pops completely symmetric at the best.

We went below $50 last week, what if this is just the start of the correction.  I know it'd take a lot of real bad news but its possible.  The Bitcoin price was stress tested and it crumbled but the whole bitcoin network is growing larger and stronger all the time.  As well as the powers that be could shut every (major) exchange within a month if they wanted to.

EDIT:  In fact I think the powers that be could collapse the dollar and every major currency within a week if they wanted to.  Then bring back the gold standard after a loaf of bread =£100/$100 if they really wanted.  Tho after the FED becoming the largest USD debt holder above China due to QE to give China confidence in USD debt ffs!

[ElectricMucus]

We went below $50 last week, what if this is just the start of the correction.  I know it'd take a lot of real bad news but its possible.  The Bitcoin price was stress tested and it crumbled but the whole bitcoin network is growing larger and stronger all the time but the powers that be could shut every (major) exchange within a month if they wanted to.

Look at this this way: During the majority of it's existence as a practical application it has been valued between sub dollar and 10 dollars. Practical uses for Bitcoin include: Silk Road, other illegal stuff, small scale money laundering and donating to your favourite website.
Then there is the cargo cult which includes: Bitcoin ATMs, Bitcoin stock exchanges, cancerous endeavours like bitpay, and the army of Internet zealots preaching the gospel. They provide zero economic value and always end in disaster. (The pirate ponzi, bitcoinica, Bruce Wagner & the bitcoin show, GLBSE, etc...)

[humanitee]

We went below $50 last week, what if this is just the start of the correction.  I know it'd take a lot of real bad news but its possible.  The Bitcoin price was stress tested and it crumbled but the whole bitcoin network is growing larger and stronger all the time but the powers that be could shut every (major) exchange within a month if they wanted to.

Look at this this way: During the majority of it's existence as a practical application it has been valued between sub dollar and 10 dollars. Practical uses for Bitcoin include: Silk Road, other illegal stuff, small scale money laundering and donating to your favourite website.
Then there is the cargo cult which includes: Bitcoin ATMs, Bitcoin stock exchanges, cancerous endeavours like bitpay, and the army of Internet zealots preaching the gospel. They provide zero economic value and always end in disaster. (The pirate ponzi, bitcoinica, Bruce Wagner & the bitcoin show, GLBSE, etc...)

 

[HappyBitCoinUser]

[matthewh3]

We went below $50 last week, what if this is just the start of the correction.  I know it'd take a lot of real bad news but its possible.  The Bitcoin price was stress tested and it crumbled but the whole bitcoin network is growing larger and stronger all the time but the powers that be could shut every (major) exchange within a month if they wanted to.

Look at this this way: During the majority of it's existence as a practical application it has been valued between sub dollar and 10 dollars. Practical uses for Bitcoin include: Silk Road, other illegal stuff, small scale money laundering and donating to your favourite website.
Then there is the cargo cult which includes: Bitcoin ATMs, Bitcoin stock exchanges, cancerous endeavours like bitpay, and the army of Internet zealots preaching the gospel. They provide zero economic value and always end in disaster. (The pirate ponzi, bitcoinica, Bruce Wagner & the bitcoin show, GLBSE, etc...)

 

They'll always be snake oil salesmen until we only have dominate monopolies.  That's free market (anarco-)capitalism (unless Co-operatives can become main stream [but if you can have Co-operatives you can have monopolies]).

[ElectricMucus]

I want to make something very clear here: I wasn't against bitpay until I noticed how their business model works.

They publicly admitted on numerous occasions that they "play the market" with their clients coins (ie: "short squeezing" pirate). So essentially they increase the volatility of the bitcoin price and make it more difficult to use bitcoin the way it was intended: Accepting it directly. This is subject to a positive feedback mechanism in which the higher the volatility is the more Bitcoin users will have to rely on bitpay and the more funds they have available to manipulate the bitcoin price.

[matthewh3]

I want to make something very clear here: I wasn't against bitpay until I noticed how their business model works.

They publicly admitted on numerous occasions that they "play the market" with their clients coins (ie: "short squeezing" pirate). So essentially they increase the volatility of the bitcoin price and make it more difficult to use bitcoin the way it was intended: Accepting it directly. This is subject to a positive feedback mechanism in which the higher the volatility is the more Bitcoin users will have to rely on bitpay and the more funds they have available to manipulate the market.

Well at least they have competitors.  It's when they all join up or get bought out into a monopoly and start fixing the price (in a un-regulated market) in there favour that we all want to be worried.  Bill Gates or Apple could buy into every single one of them if they thought they could pull a nice big buck.  Is that when we all move to litecoin and so on then.  

[BitPirate]

^This. It's a free market.

[matthewh3]

^This. It's a free market.

Until big money gets involved then its the centralised (hate to say this) Rothschild anarco-capitalism central driven export wealth to the top system.  This is why the uber-rich are always getting tax cuts (even under austerity) as the wealth trickles down of course isn't it 

[gradient vector]

If you look at the exponential moving averages for one and two year time scales you can see a long term correction between $30 to $20 possible -

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=1460&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=EMA&m1=365&a2=EMA&m2=731&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

This chart is absolutely insane. Why can't bitcoiners be satisfied with 100% gains per year the way satoshi intended 

[fitty]

We went below $50 last week, what if this is just the start of the correction.  I know it'd take a lot of real bad news but its possible.  The Bitcoin price was stress tested and it crumbled but the whole bitcoin network is growing larger and stronger all the time but the powers that be could shut every (major) exchange within a month if they wanted to.

Look at this this way: During the majority of it's existence as a practical application it has been valued between sub dollar and 10 dollars. Practical uses for Bitcoin include: Silk Road, other illegal stuff, small scale money laundering and donating to your favourite website.
Then there is the cargo cult which includes: Bitcoin ATMs, Bitcoin stock exchanges, cancerous endeavours like bitpay, and the army of Internet zealots preaching the gospel. They provide zero economic value and always end in disaster. (The pirate ponzi, bitcoinica, Bruce Wagner & the bitcoin show, GLBSE, etc...)

I agree. The value of Bitcoin has nothing to do with it as a practical application. Bitcoin works just fine at $2 as it does at $200. Bitcoin usage could surge 50000% and the USD rate of Bitcoin could very easily go down. People using it as a currency doesn't cause the price to go up.

People seem to think the exchange rate of Bitcoin is tied to how well it's doing. How many people are using it. How many businesses are accepting it. When really it has nothing to do with any of those factors.

The price is based on supply/demand, day traders, investors and market manipulation. When someone dumps 50,000 BTC and the price tanks, that doesn't mean Bitcoin is suddenly "doing worse". When someone blows $300,000 buying Bitcoins driving the price up, that doesn't mean Bitcoin is "doing great". The exchanges are their own entity in the Bitcoin ecosystem. The exchange could be up while adotion/usage is down. Exchange could be down while usage/adoption is up. The link between the two is iffy at best.

Anyone projecting Bitcoin value is talking out of their ass. It's an unregulated exchange, no oversight, no transparency, and the more money you have the more influence you have on the price. The swings are based on a small group of people dumping or a small group of people pumping. Currently when the price starts sliding, people read that as "bad news, sell". When the price is rallying people read that as "good news, buy". When most times it's a handful of people throwing their weight around on the exchange.

[noedaRDH]

The price on these exchanges don't mean much about the actual value of a Bitcoin at this moment. It's still too early to say if it is over valued. Wait a few more years.