What is the maximum price in the next 12-18 mo?

[Biodom]

I'll give it a shot:

Most people post conservative numbers of 1200-1500...meh.
I'll try to tackle this here.

In 2013 we started at $13 with maximum at $1165 (Bitstamp, and I will ignore the $1242 on MtGox because it was illiquid)
1165/13=89.615X

We started 2017 at $968.32 (index price), therefore I suggest that 89.615X968.32=$86775 is our upper bound (admittedly, a very unlikely one). What is a more realistic, yet probably maximum price?
I suggest to look at jl2012  exponential graph (BETI) thread.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0
To break local maximum value with respect to the exponential graph few days ago was $19510 and this will be rising as we progress in a 2017, but not sure what would be the number by the end of the year. I would guesstimate, at least $25000-26000 (by Dec 31, 2017)

Therefore, if bitcoin matches what it did before either by performing super-exponentially sometime this year or matching yearly maximum appreciation, the upper boundary would be 25-87K/bitcoin.

That said, I believe that several parameters have to be activated almost simultaneously:

1. ETF has to be approved. 30% chance, in my opinion.
2. Significant indication of a currency crisis somewhere. Probability unknown, maybe 10%. So 1+2 together =3% chance
3. Some central bank decides to accumulate bitcoin and news of this leaks. Maybe 2% probability, difficult to estimate. This parameter alone would be sufficient.

So, there is a nonzero (single digits) chance of 25-87K/bitcoin in 12-18 mo.
It would be interesting to watch.

[BillyBobZorton]

My conservative estimate is $2000, with bitcache/mega 2.0 or something huge that can get the average joe involved.

The whales will keep moving in as the economy keeps going down the shitter and gold continues to downperform as a safe haven.

5 figures in the next 5 years are guaranteed tho.

[BTCtrader71]

3. Some central bank decides to accumulate bitcoin and news of this leaks. Maybe 2% probability, difficult to estimate. This parameter alone would be sufficient.

A related question: assume that some central bank somewhere decides to accumulate bitcoin. What are the relative probabilities that they a) keep it a secret, vs b) announce it to the world? I'm thinking that they'd want to keep it a secret. The implication being that the absence of any news articles about accumulation by the PBOC or the Fed or maybe some smaller central bank somewhere doesn't really tell us much about whether it might actually be happening.

Which leads to the next question: what do you think are the odds that one or more of the many central banks in the world are secretly accumulating bitcoin?

[Biodom]

A related question: assume that some central bank somewhere decides to accumulate bitcoin. What are the relative probabilities that they a) keep it a secret, vs b) announce it to the world? I'm thinking that they'd want to keep it a secret. The implication being that the absence of any news articles about accumulation by the PBOC or the Fed or maybe some smaller central bank somewhere doesn't really tell us much about whether it might actually be happening.

Which leads to the next question: what do you think are the odds that one or more of the many central banks in the world are secretly accumulating bitcoin?

I would call these odds at least even (50%) based on at least two indirect observations:

1. I remember listening to either one of the panels or to one of Tapscott's presentation where he (or someone else) said that accumulation of bitcoin by Central banks is 10 years off, subtract 1-2 years because they already passed and subtract at least 5 years because they will not admit it officially for at least that long=they are either doing it or will be within 1-3 years, realistically. And why not? The whole value is currently tiny and would be just a margin of error on their sheets.

2. China would be my primary suspect because they keep trying to bring the price down repeatedly, which is typical when something is being slowly accumulated. If US would learn that China is in fact doing this, they would be silly not to engage in such buying as well.

[BTCtrader71]

2. China would be my primary suspect because they keep trying to bring the price down repeatedly, which is typical when something is being slowly accumulated. If US would learn that China is in fact doing this, they would be silly not to engage in such buying as well.

Agree:

https://medium.com/@davidstrayhorn_33223/the-peoples-bank-of-china-may-be-secretly-accumulating-large-sums-of-bitcoin-be3de9c53f17#.3hcqm5hlj

[Wolf Rainer]

$1200 - $1500 Will be the price range for the whole year, like I said thousand times. $25000-26000, what are you smoking? Bitcoin at that price would mean a 412 BILLIONS marketcap, almost the Microsoft marketcap.

[Biodom]

$1200 - $1500 Will be the price range for the whole year, like I said thousand times. $25000-26000, what are you smoking? Bitcoin at that price would mean a 412 BILLIONS marketcap, almost the Microsoft marketcap.

well, i am not saying that it will happen, if you read my post, just merely discussing the upper bound.
bitcoin is a new asset class. typically, asset classes (stocks, bonds, RE, major currencies) are measured in trillions.
gold is 7.4-7.5 trillions
bitcoin is NOT a company, especially not the one with mostly buggy products.

[ImHash]

Because of the rule 1 block every 10 minutes and the increasing difficulty plus more miners joining the pools and the average electricity cost of mining the estimation of price could only be at around $2800 by the end of 2017.
Call it speculation but if I'm dead by then my post would be here still

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Because of the rule 1 block every 10 minutes and the increasing difficulty plus more miners joining the pools and the average electricity cost of mining the estimation of price could only be at around $2800 by the end of 2017.
Call it speculation but if I'm dead by then my post would be here still

$2800, I'd settle for that kind of increase in price by the end of 2017 & btw I hope you're not dead by then

[Biodom]

2. China would be my primary suspect because they keep trying to bring the price down repeatedly, which is typical when something is being slowly accumulated. If US would learn that China is in fact doing this, they would be silly not to engage in such buying as well.

Agree:

https://medium.com/@davidstrayhorn_33223/the-peoples-bank-of-china-may-be-secretly-accumulating-large-sums-of-bitcoin-be3de9c53f17#.3hcqm5hlj

Great read, especially:
"Strategy #2: Accumulate mining power...Easier it would be to let private Chinese companies build the miners, and set up a secret partnership with them."

...and who just set up a gigantic (50% of ALL hashing power) mining factory while claiming that it would be mostly for private investors.
You guessed it, Bitmain..in China..

[Meuh6879]

remember the price of GOLD ...
and when 1 bitcoin cost more than it ?

well, we have already a pattern for this :



https://ybitcoin.com/articles/bitcoin-as-an-investment/

[Pursuer]

the problem with these types of speculation (which have been around from day one) is the fact that they are all depending on lots of big ifs!
and all those big ifs are usually a far fetched fantasy in my opinion that has not come true yet and has little chance of coming true in the future. that is why I never liked that famous 10,000 $/BTC speculation from 2013 until today.

I like to stick to the facts, that the adoption we see today is a slow one and nothing seems to be able to change it. and the nice up trend we have been seeing for years is pointing to prices around $1800-$2000 by the end of the year.

[shapeshiftscam]

$1200 - $1500 Will be the price range for the whole year, like I said thousand times. $25000-26000, what are you smoking? Bitcoin at that price would mean a 412 BILLIONS marketcap, almost the Microsoft marketcap.

I agree with $1200-1500 range. When we talk about bitcoin price, we need to be realistic and rational, it is obvious that $25000 is impossible, maybe is possible in year 2030, at that time, everything is 5X expensive than now. In 2017, $25000 is absolutely impossible, $2500 is a little possible.

[cakravothy]

$1200 - $1500 Will be the price range for the whole year, like I said thousand times. $25000-26000, what are you smoking? Bitcoin at that price would mean a 412 BILLIONS marketcap, almost the Microsoft marketcap.

I agree with $1200-1500 range. When we talk about bitcoin price, we need to be realistic and rational, it is obvious that $25000 is impossible, maybe is possible in year 2030, at that time, everything is 5X expensive than now. In 2017, $25000 is absolutely impossible, $2500 is a little possible.

I think is very imposible bitcoin price next 12-18 month can incraese until reach 25k dollar
is realistic bitcoin price in range 1200 - 1500 dollar, or maximum price in 2017 only 1500 dollar

[Reid]

The 2016 drive is like $300-$960 if I am not mistaken? So there is a 600 plus dollar difference and maybe that is why they are saying it will go for $1500 because of that thinking. But still I am worried with that 1500 mark. I am thinking it will depend on the newly elected presidents of different countries. Of the economy will grow to which people can afford a bitcoin. If that happens then demand will grow more taking bitcoin to higher value.

[hase0278]

In the next 12-18 months, I think the maximum price we might see is at most 1500$ and at least 1200$. Its impossible to climb up above that for now unless there are major happenings that will affect bitcoin reaching prices more than that. If that were to happen though, many of those who hold their bitcoin now will sell and it might go back to the price ranges we have now.

[Amph]

Any type of calculation about possible future price is just a guess with dice, there is no indicators that can help us to think what price will be the next point for bitcoin

we can only base or argument on the past, and based on the past bitcoin can do a 10x rally in one sit, therefore 10k is not so far-stretched to achive this year

i still think we are only going to see less than 2k as a stable value for this year, but the peak may be very well higher

[n0ne]

As most users described I too think we might get closer to $1200. If situations were found good we'll reach $2000 to the maximum. Else the price could be seen to increase periodically. Possibly this year the price might stay above $1000 for a long with minor variations.

[Herbert2020]

$1200 - $1500 Will be the price range for the whole year, like I said thousand times. $25000-26000, what are you smoking? Bitcoin at that price would mean a 412 BILLIONS marketcap, almost the Microsoft marketcap.

I agree with $1200-1500 range. When we talk about bitcoin price, we need to be realistic and rational, it is obvious that $25000 is impossible, maybe is possible in year 2030, at that time, everything is 5X expensive than now. In 2017, $25000 is absolutely impossible, $2500 is a little possible.

nothing is impossible. i think the correct term is improbable meaning the possibility of that happening is low.
and besides i disagree with the $1200-$1500 for the whole year. you are thinking in numbers not percentages. and bitcoin is not yet at the max adoption to have a stable price. a $1200 rise is 18% and $1500 is 48% rise. and this amount of rise in a whole year is too small for bitcoin, check the history and you can see how small it is.

[sunsilk]

As most users described I too think we might get closer to $1200. If situations were found good we'll reach $2000 to the maximum. Else the price could be seen to increase periodically. Possibly this year the price might stay above $1000 for a long with minor variations.

This is more reliable and positive price of bitcoin to happen for the next 12-18 months but well bitcoin is really making surprises.

It can pump and dump anytime now but when it comes to dump that is not going to be that long it will can have a comeback of pumping again.

But I wanted to see bitcoin's price even higher than $1,200.