Bryan Micon's "Bet Me Anything" thread

[darkmule]

IMO at this early stage I think Muslim v USA is very close to 50-50.

however calling a ginger is going to have to pay 10x or more what plain 'ole USA pays.

I was only willing to give 3x on that, because only at that would I have a really good advantage on it.  As for Muslim/USA, I think the USA side is a slight favorite.

Of course, events could easily moot any of these bets before they're made.

[Micon]

I bet that the Boston Marathon bomber isn't caught this week.

At least 1 Boston Marathon suspect is named AND apprehended by 4/19/2013 11:59 EST

I have "Yes"

"No" is available at Even money.   Available for the next 6 hours unless obvious news changes things.

I can post a hash publicly or PM it.

[KGambler]

My friend sent with no transaction fee.  Any idea how long this is gonna take?

[Micon]

New line Lakers -300

My friend sent with no transaction fee.  Any idea how long this is gonna take?

1)  those can take forever.  I am not familiar with how long it would take (always add tx fee IMO)
2)  The new line is -300  | if you do not want that price I will send back as soon as I rec'd it.

[KGambler]

I still haven't received those coins.  My friend is a miner and doesn't even know how to use bitcoins.  I will check back in a couple hours.  If they haven't arrived by then, then I will have to check back in the morning.

Either way, I will try and check with you before posting up.  I realize a long time has passed.

[IveBeenBit]

I bet that the Boston Marathon bomber isn't caught this week.

At least 1 Boston Marathon suspect is named AND apprehended by 4/19/2013 11:59 EST

I have "Yes"

"No" is available at Even money.   Available for the next 6 hours unless obvious news changes things.

I can post a hash publicly or PM it.

I'll take "No" at even money if you're still taking action on this. One more thing -- if they arrest someone, but then release him within 72 hours, "Sorry, wrong guy" then I win the bet. If suspect is held longer than 72 hours I lose. PM an address and betting limits if you're down.

[darkmule]

I still haven't received those coins.  My friend is a miner and doesn't even know how to use bitcoins.  I will check back in a couple hours.  If they haven't arrived by then, then I will have to check back in the morning.

Either way, I will try and check with you before posting up.  I realize a long time has passed.

The more blocks go by, the larger the chance it will be included, unless you are talking about some pitiful micro-transaction (some of those can become lost money).  Part of the probability of being included in a block is the size of the transaction.  You should probably read up on this if you plan to do many transactions with no or minimal transaction fees.

In this site of so-called Bitcoin geniuses, not a single person even had a response to my own thread asking about a certain peculiar behavior of the reference client.  Maybe nobody here knows.  Maybe they're too dumb.  In any event, I'm still interested in knowing why the reference client did this thing.

I'd only worry if you wake up tomorrow and the transaction still hasn't cleared.  They generally do eventually, if they are for any substantial amount.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

In this site of so-called Bitcoin geniuses, not a single person even had a response to my own thread asking about a certain peculiar behavior of the reference client.  Maybe nobody here knows.  Maybe they're too dumb.  In any event, I'm still interested in knowing why the reference client did this thing.

Your TX most likely qualified for no transaction fee. All outputs have to be at least 0.01 BTC, and the coin age of inputs must be 0.6 or more. Free transactions are slower to be confirmed, only a limited number of them is accepted per block.

Since you have set the min TX fee to 8192 satoshi or whatever, instead of sending no fee it sent 8192 satoshis.

[darkmule]

In this site of so-called Bitcoin geniuses, not a single person even had a response to my own thread asking about a certain peculiar behavior of the reference client.  Maybe nobody here knows.  Maybe they're too dumb.  In any event, I'm still interested in knowing why the reference client did this thing.

Your TX most likely qualified for no transaction fee. All outputs have to be at least 0.01 BTC, and the coin age of inputs must be 0.6 or more. Free transactions are slower to be confirmed, only a limited number of them is accepted per block.

Since you have set the min TX fee to 8192 satoshi or whatever, instead of sending no fee it sent 8192 satoshis.

Actually, I fixed that almost immediately.  It was an error to have left that in place, as I had only set it that way to experiment.

[Micon]

I bet that the Boston Marathon bomber isn't caught this week.

At least 1 Boston Marathon suspect is named AND apprehended by 4/19/2013 11:59 EST

I have "Yes"

"No" is available at Even money.   Available for the next 6 hours unless obvious news changes things.

I can post a hash publicly or PM it.

I'll take "No" at even money if you're still taking action on this. One more thing -- if they arrest someone, but then release him within 72 hours, "Sorry, wrong guy" then I win the bet. If suspect is held longer than 72 hours I lose. PM an address and betting limits if you're down.

To keep this bet even money, now that time has elapsed, I must adjust the strike time/date:

At least 1 Boston Marathon suspect is named AND apprehended by 4/21/2013 11:59 EST.  The suspect must not be released within 72 hours of arrest.

I have "true"

"No" is available at Even money.   Available for the next 11 hours unless obvious news changes things.

1MSq1whnVfgzkJJ94SRxxHSEJq1ZbwBGKf

min: 0.5
max: 3

can PM a hash if you do not want this public. 

[blockbet.net]

Did you get any action on your Lakers bet? I'd be willing to take that with your proposed -300 line. I say that the Lakers will make the playoffs. All teams play their last match of the regular season today.

[KGambler]

Did you get any action on your Lakers bet? I'd be willing to take that with your proposed -300 line. I say that the Lakers will make the playoffs. All teams play their last match of the regular season today.

Dude, don't take the Lakers bet.

The moneylines for the two games are out now.  You can parlay the Utah and Houston moneylines and get paid +490.  Why would you take +300?

If you want to make that bet at least you should get better odds.

Dude, don't take the Lakers bet. They are a huge favorite since they have the tie-breaker over Utah... New guy either doesn't know this or is trying to take advantage.

[edit] Sorry Utah has tie-breaker but still Lakers will have to lose AND Utah will have to win their last game tomorrow.

My bad, I had it the wrong way, but there's one game left for each team and like you said Lakers are ahead. If you want to make that bet at least you should get better odds.

[KGambler]

I still haven't received those coins.  My friend is a miner and doesn't even know how to use bitcoins.  I will check back in a couple hours.  If they haven't arrived by then, then I will have to check back in the morning.

Either way, I will try and check with you before posting up.  I realize a long time has passed.

The more blocks go by, the larger the chance it will be included, unless you are talking about some pitiful micro-transaction (some of those can become lost money).  Part of the probability of being included in a block is the size of the transaction.  You should probably read up on this if you plan to do many transactions with no or minimal transaction fees.

In this site of so-called Bitcoin geniuses, not a single person even had a response to my own thread asking about a certain peculiar behavior of the reference client.  Maybe nobody here knows.  Maybe they're too dumb.  In any event, I'm still interested in knowing why the reference client did this thing.

I'd only worry if you wake up tomorrow and the transaction still hasn't cleared.  They generally do eventually, if they are for any substantial amount.

Thanks.  My coins showed up.  It was a triple digit transaction, so it wasn't small.  Maybe the issue is that they are brand new coins.  I should have told him to include a transaction fee.  It looks like they came in the middle of the night.  It took over 10 hours.   

[KGambler]

Totally want to bet the don't on muslim.

min bet: 0.5 coin
max bet: 5 coins
odds: even $

Let me know if you get coins.

OK, I shipped 5 coins.  I have MOOSLIMS.  Good luck.

I may take the "not caught bet too".  Wouldn't mind losing that one though.  When you write 11:59 EST, most people are probably going to take that to mean 11:59 AM EST.  If it's supposed to be PM or 23:59, I would clarify.

[KGambler]

To keep this bet even money, now that time has elapsed, I must adjust the strike time/date:

At least 1 Boston Marathon suspect is named AND apprehended by 4/21/2013 11:59 EST.  The suspect must not be released within 72 hours of arrest.

I have "true"

"No" is available at Even money.   Available for the next 11 hours unless obvious news changes things.

1MSq1whnVfgzkJJ94SRxxHSEJq1ZbwBGKf

min: 0.5
max: 3

can PM a hash if you do not want this public. 

OK, booked.  I shipped 3 BTC.  Unfortunately, it doesn't look like they have a clue who did it or why.  No one has even claimed responsibility.  Hope I am wrong on this one. 

[KGambler]

I still haven't received those coins.  My friend is a miner and doesn't even know how to use bitcoins.  I will check back in a couple hours.  If they haven't arrived by then, then I will have to check back in the morning.

Either way, I will try and check with you before posting up.  I realize a long time has passed.

The more blocks go by, the larger the chance it will be included, unless you are talking about some pitiful micro-transaction (some of those can become lost money).  Part of the probability of being included in a block is the size of the transaction.  You should probably read up on this if you plan to do many transactions with no or minimal transaction fees.

In this site of so-called Bitcoin geniuses, not a single person even had a response to my own thread asking about a certain peculiar behavior of the reference client.  Maybe nobody here knows.  Maybe they're too dumb.  In any event, I'm still interested in knowing why the reference client did this thing.

I'd only worry if you wake up tomorrow and the transaction still hasn't cleared.  They generally do eventually, if they are for any substantial amount.

Thanks.  My coins showed up.  It was a triple digit transaction, so it wasn't small.  Maybe the issue is that they are brand new coins.  I should have told him to include a transaction fee.  It looks like they came in the middle of the night.  It took over 10 hours.    

One other thing is that his wallet was loading to catch up on the blockchain when he tried to send the coins.  Would the client wait until he was caught up to process the transaction?  Or does it really take 10-11 hours for a large transaction with no fee?


EDIT:  He tried again today and it arrived in like 5 minutes.  I guess the issue was his client was catching up on the blockchain.  Now I don't think it had to do with the fees.

[organofcorti]

I bet that BTCGuild average not less than 7652762 shares per block for the first 24 hours after the next retarget.

[blockbet.net]

Dude, don't take the Lakers bet.

Alright, you got me I honestly hadn't looked at the moneyline odds prior to my message, but what you're saying is absolutely correct. Still I'd have to say that the Lakers game without Kobe is pretty even, and I haven't looked at the Utah game yet, it's obviously a tough matchup but still very winnable for a team that is in a must-win situation.

[IveBeenBit]

To keep this bet even money, now that time has elapsed, I must adjust the strike time/date:

At least 1 Boston Marathon suspect is named AND apprehended by 4/21/2013 11:59 EST.  The suspect must not be released within 72 hours of arrest.

I have "true"

"No" is available at Even money.   Available for the next 11 hours unless obvious news changes things.

1MSq1whnVfgzkJJ94SRxxHSEJq1ZbwBGKf

min: 0.5
max: 3

can PM a hash if you do not want this public. 

I just logged on and sent 1.2 coins before I saw KGambler had already sent the max on our bet that you would take. I guess if BTC4.2 is too much action, you can return the coins to the address they came from. This is why I wanted you to send me the address in a PM.

[dooglus]

Would the client wait until he was caught up to process the transaction?

Yes.  Otherwise it can't know whether the coins have already been sent to somebody else.

I think he could have sped things up by using 'getrawtransaction' on his client to get a copy of the transaction, and then broadcasting it using blockchain.info's service.