Zangelbert's Bubble-o-Meter

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

0%

Is this some sort of percent deviation from the aforementioned trendline? You should post a pic of the trendline in the OP for reference!

It's that plus a bunch of other subjective things I sense and observe. But you're right, I should post a chart. Computer is in the shop, using smartphone for everything. Too lazy for image editing using Skitch or something now.

+5%

[blueberry]

I think sentiment is now pretty balanced between bulls and bears in the $90-$110 range. I was surprised the price dropped to $50 yesterday. Luckily, I took advantage of the panic and bought more bitcoins.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

0%

Is this some sort of percent deviation from the aforementioned trendline? You should post a pic of the trendline in the OP for reference!

It's that plus a bunch of other subjective things I sense and observe. But you're right, I should post a chart. Computer is in the shop, using smartphone for everything. Too lazy for image editing using Skitch or something now.

+5%

You should split it into two numbers, subjective metric and percent deviation metric 

Good idea, perhaps. Calculating...

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

+30%

[fitty]

How the fuck do you go from -5% to 30% in two days? Because the price went up? Why not just link to the current MtGox USD value of Bitcoin.

No shit it's +30%, BTC is skyrocketing. That +30% would have been more useful before the rally, like when you were posting -5%.

+30%

[fitty]

He isn't predicting any future information, he is measuring current bubble-ness. I think it is largely based off the relatively consistent exponential growth line from January to mid March. So we are 30% higher than that trend would predict for this point in time.

So it's completely useless? Keep us updated then!

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

See OP for the methodology. It's a number pulled from my nether-reaches, with a basic grounding in exponential growth since January, tempered by news, sentiment here and on reddit, a few obvious technical considerations, and various miscellaneous indicators that remain in an exponential trend.

In a rapid upsurge, like today, there isn't enough time for most of those things to change so the Bubble-o-Meter will often look similar to a simple percentage change from the exponential trendline (note that it's a lot lower than that right now; the change off exponential is pushing 60% now - at the end of the day this meter is just my personal assessment).

Whether 30% should be taken as a sign to sell, and how much to sell, depends on your portfolio and goals. I don't day trade, so it has to exceed 50% to get my attention.

[Vandroiy]

I think it is largely based off the relatively consistent exponential growth line from January to mid March. So we are 30% higher than that trend would predict for this point in time.

lol... drawing straight lines on logscale again?

I remember seeing that approach in 2011, by which we'd be at some quadrillions of dollars per Bitcoin by now.

[Zaih]

clearly you guys are incorrect [size=16]so the answer to the formula is [/size]][/font](5%5-5%)%[color]/]

it is self evident in this ch[size=18]a[/szie][size= 22pt]rt[/size]



BTCBTCBTC

Perfect. Just perfect.

We need more analysis like you, sir.

[DrG]

That's plagiarism, my 3 year old drew that! 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I think it is largely based off the relatively consistent exponential growth line from January to mid March. So we are 30% higher than that trend would predict for this point in time.

lol... drawing straight lines on logscale again?

I remember seeing that approach in 2011, by which we'd be at some quadrillions of dollars per Bitcoin by now.

As long as the fundamentals continue to grow exponentially, yes. In 2011 the fundamentals were not growing in concert with the price.

[Gabi]

Epic!