Market sentiment poll - did we see the bottom ($50 at Gox)?

[zby]

Just to see the sentiment on this forum.

[deadweasel]

Just to see the sentiment on this forum.

No.  My sentiment (I have no actual knowledge) is that we will see oscillations b/w 50 and 70 until 50 gives way and we see 29 briefly again.  Then some stability into the mid 30's.  

Then, another bubble!   Weeeee!  Ride the bitcoin ride!

[Meman]

I don't know. There is alot of buying @50, but there also is a strong movement down.

Wild guess: Price will bottom out somewhere between 20-50$ this year.

[Wuji]

I said No but I've bought some.  It was only a fraction of what I sold.  I do not think this is the end for Bitcoin.  I think that would only come if those using it were able to move to something else.  However, actual value maybe very very low as usage seems to be much lower now from what I hear about inventories.  It sucks there is no possible way to do a P/V ratio price/value.  

It looks like a slow spiral down again and then a very slow rise again like all other Bitcoin busts.  I think it will take months or probably over a year before new people get excited or existing people get amnesia.  What is funny is these polls when they show over 50% of people here are bulls.  And then after we see huge drops in price.  I think that proves the real money in Bitcoin are investors too busy to mess with this forum.  Most those here saying it is going to go up forever probably have no real money to invest.

[zby]

I think this might have been bottom - but not the end of correction - I expect a crazy rollercoaster of a triangle.

[Brushan]

I had no idea and damn those poll results made me even more insecure.

[fabrizziop]

I think the bottom of this correction will be 32$, as the rally was a bit rational before we broke the old ATH.

However, if we break with lots of volume 31.9099$, I think we could see single digits briefly(specially if gox lags an hour) before going back to ~20$

[proudhon]

Looks like $50 will be the bottom.

[fabrizziop]

Looks like $50 will be the bottom.

WOW, do we have a bullish proudhon here?!

[Brushan]

Looks like $50 will be the bottom.

WOW, do we have a bullish proudhon here?!

Bullish in a bear market and bearish in a bull market 

[Meman]

Buy@50$ and Sell@83$ have round about the same market depth (~32000 Bitcoins)

[ehoffman]

Looks like $50 will be the bottom.

WOW, do we have a bullish proudhon here?!

Bullish in a bear market and bearish in a bull market 

proudhon said so...  Damn, BTC 25$ in a few hours

[fabrizziop]

Looks like $50 will be the bottom.

WOW, do we have a bullish proudhon here?!

Bullish in a bear market and bearish in a bull market 

Looks like $50 will be the bottom.

WOW, do we have a bullish proudhon here?!

Bullish in a bear market and bearish in a bull market 

proudhon said so...  Damn, BTC 25$ in a few hours

I think he loves being wrong for a long period of time to be eventually right. Like they say, a broken clock gives the right time twice a day.

[freequant]

Looks like $50 will be the bottom.

OMG, Proudhon optimist? This really must be the bottom of the bottom people.

[zby]

Previous bottom:


Looks similar - but in a different scale.

[Rampion]

Just to see the sentiment on this forum.

No.  My sentiment (I have no actual knowledge) is that we will see oscillations b/w 50 and 70 until 50 gives way and we see 29 briefly again.  Then some stability into the mid 30's.  

Then, another bubble!   Weeeee!  Ride the bitcoin ride!

That's pretty reasonable, I'm sure a lot of people here would agree with you.

[aop]

How many Bitcoins are created per day? Is the number still 3600? If so the Bitcoin market still needs $200k+ of new money everyday just to keep Bitcoin stable at current price point.

[Rampion]

I'm very puzzled by the fact that Proudhon has now become a bull.

[Meman]

How many Bitcoins are created per day? Is the number still 3600? If so the Bitcoin market still needs $200k+ of new money everyday just to keep Bitcoin stable at current price point.

How do you want to know, if all those mined coins are sold? The miners may simply keep them.

[zby]

Current results:

yes - I am fully (back) in BTC    - 17 (19.1%)
yes - but I wait for confirmation    - 14 (15.7%)
I don't know    - 19 (21.3%)
no - but I've bought some    - 7 (7.9%)
no    - 32 (36%)

Total Voters: 89

[Wuji]

Looks like $50 will be the bottom.

WOW, do we have a bullish proudhon here?!

Bullish in a bear market and bearish in a bull market 

Say what you will but this is smart investing.  The herd always seems to be wrong and thus there are bubbles.  Buy low and sell high, you can't do that if you are a sheep.

[Faraday]

Looks like $50 will be the bottom.

Wow. Now i'm really worried. Time to sell?

[Wuji]

How many Bitcoins are created per day? Is the number still 3600? If so the Bitcoin market still needs $200k+ of new money everyday just to keep Bitcoin stable at current price point.

Shhh don't start injecting reality to people they still think it is possible to go to $10,000.  At $266 there needed to be $900,000 per day (someone else's calculation).  This would explain why it topped out there.

[Manticore]

Looks like $50 will be the bottom.

I see a bounce but no bottom.

[Meman]

[600watt]

Looks like $50 will be the bottom.

Wow. Now i'm really worried. Time to sell?

the fundamentals (proudhon) have changed. does this mean it´s over ?

[IIOII]

I think we'll see $ 30 / BTC at least.

[gizmoh]

Further dip incoming, with some big players dumping 3-5k four-five times a day.Will cause more panic once $50 is breached.

[600watt]

How many Bitcoins are created per day? Is the number still 3600? If so the Bitcoin market still needs $200k+ of new money everyday just to keep Bitcoin stable at current price point.

Shhh don't start injecting reality to people they still think it is possible to go to $10,000.  At $266 there needed to be $900,000 per day (someone else's calculation).  This would explain why it topped out there.

no way. don´t forget all the cash that the smart guys who sold all the way down to present have piled up. the money that others lost is not gone - it just changed hands. those guys profited a lot. they will want to profit again. but they can only do so if they buy btc. they are all waiting....

[just1nmc]

I think we'll see $ 30 / BTC at least.

So many people are looking for $30 bitcoins that I don't think it will make it. It seems like every person I've seen on reddit is using that number, and plenty of people on here.

Also, people have to be willing to sell the BTC141k (much higher when accounting for people buying in as it drops) to get it there.

[piramida]

At $266 there needed to be $900,000 per day (someone else's calculation).  This would explain why it topped out there.

Really? So 700k per day was fine but 900k was too much? Or what's your explanation? Nobody knows how much new money was being invested in bitcoins daily, hence the only way to know how high it could have gone was to push the price to the top and see where it breaks.

Just what it did. Now, for a twist of that same data, if you realistically think there were at least 800k invested in bitcoin daily, that would mean at current price levels that 16,000 new coins should be sold daily, minus 3600 mined coins, means 12k new coins out of nowhere daily! So this low price of 50 is unsustainable!

Or I just used an arbitrary number tied to basic bitcoin statistic to prove my point.

[Ploo]

I somehow doubt ASIC miners are selling much more than to just cover investment and power costs. You don't buy an ASIC if you're long term bearish on bitcoin so they are more than likely to be holding onto their coin.

[aop]

How many Bitcoins are created per day? Is the number still 3600? If so the Bitcoin market still needs $200k+ of new money everyday just to keep Bitcoin stable at current price point.

Shhh don't start injecting reality to people they still think it is possible to go to $10,000.  At $266 there needed to be $900,000 per day (someone else's calculation).  This would explain why it topped out there.

no way. don´t forget all the cash that the smart guys who sold all the way down to present have piled up. the money that others lost is not gone - it just changed hands. those guys profited a lot. they will want to profit again. but they can only do so if they buy btc. they are all waiting....

I doubt that money stays in Bitcoin economy. People buying expensive Bitcoins are funding someone elses houses, cars, boats etc.

[IIOII]

I think we'll see $ 30 / BTC at least.

So many people are looking for $30 bitcoins that I don't think it will make it. It seems like every person I've seen on reddit is using that number, and plenty of people on here.

Also, people have to be willing to sell the BTC141k (much higher when accounting for people buying in as it drops) to get it there.

Attitudes change with mood. Buyer's mood will be different than today if we go down further. Uncertainty will spread. Before we will see Bitcoin going up (again) we will see capitulation of some perma-bulls. So below $ 30 is well possible.

[SlipperySlope]

According to observed financial bubbles in the past, and especially with 2011, the lowest point is lower than most people would have guessed beforehand.

[ElectricMucus]

Looks like $50 will be the bottom.

Yes I am like all in.

[zby]

current results:

yes - I am fully (back) in BTC    33 (23.2%)
yes - but I wait for confirmation    23 (16.2%)
I don't know    26 (18.3%)
no - but I've bought some    11 (7.7%)
no    49 (34.5%)

Total Voters: 142

Current price 69 (down from above 80).
Sentiment slightly up - I wish I checked it when we were climbing to 80.

[ErisDiscordia]

I applaud Proudhon for being consistently contrarian and thus sowing DISCORD

btw I have no idea if we've hit bottom, but I've bought some coins anyway.

[proudhon]

Again, it'll be bumpy, but $50 is very likely the bottom.  This bubble attracted the attention of people who can help build more resilient and professional markets and apps on top of the protocol.  It'll be a few months before we useful products out of this, but it's coming.

[Rampion]

Proudhon, may I ask what changed in two days to make you so bullish compared to two days ago?

One example:

I'll keep posting these until everyone understands what it means.  It answers the question in the thread title.



So, yes, lots of people know about bitcoin, but enough people who know about them and own some don't want them anymore.  The ask depth on MtGox is the highest it's been in 6 months and is a little more than 5x what it was just before the crash.  People were fooled into thinking the supply of bitcoins was low relative to the demand.  It isn't.  And over time we'll see the price reflect this fact as more and more people internalize it.  We will see low double digits, and when people get sufficiently off-put by that, we'll see the price collapse into the single digits.

No more single digits?

Maybe you bought some at $50 and now feels bad? 

That would be epic for bitcointalk's most famous permabear

[proudhon]

Proudhon, may I ask what changed in two days to make you so bullish compared to two days ago?

Oh, I just began reading a lot about how much attention the infrastructure is getting, and it looks like people concerned with those things realize better now how robust and scalable their designs need to be, and it looks like developers are interested in building the right sort of systems.  MtGox, in particular, seems to be doing much better now, even as we're seeing record trade volumes.  As far as trading goes, the activity down to and around $50 looked bottom-ish enough that I think it probably is.  It will be a struggle moving beyond last week, but it looks like the development community is serious about it.

[mr_random]

Proudhon, may I ask what changed in two days to make you so bullish compared to two days ago?

Oh, I just began reading a lot about how much attention the infrastructure is getting, and it looks like people concerned with those things realize better now how robust and scalable their designs need to be, and it looks like developers are interested in building the right sort of systems.  MtGox, in particular, seems to be doing much better now, even as we're seeing record trade volumes.  As far as trading goes, the activity down to and around $50 looked bottom-ish enough that I think it probably is.  It will be a struggle moving beyond last week, but it looks like the development community is serious about it.

So basically, you bought back in and now you're bullish?

[proudhon]

Proudhon, may I ask what changed in two days to make you so bullish compared to two days ago?

Oh, I just began reading a lot about how much attention the infrastructure is getting, and it looks like people concerned with those things realize better now how robust and scalable their designs need to be, and it looks like developers are interested in building the right sort of systems.  MtGox, in particular, seems to be doing much better now, even as we're seeing record trade volumes.  As far as trading goes, the activity down to and around $50 looked bottom-ish enough that I think it probably is.  It will be a struggle moving beyond last week, but it looks like the development community is serious about it.

So basically, you bought back in and now you're bullish?

[zby]

Current voting results:

yes - I am fully (back) in BTC    51 (24.4%)
yes - but I wait for confirmation    37 (17.7%)
I don't know    35 (16.7%)
no - but I've bought some    20 (9.6%)
no    66 (31.6%)

Total Voters: 209

Price at 73 (big wall at 70 - fake?).

Sentiment slightly up.

[ManBearPig]

All-in. Subject to swings.

I have pushed my break-even point down to $32 and I'm not sweating about that being broken anytime soon.

I will work with that $50 being the bottom for the immediate future though everything changes.