FACT: barring falling knives (which this isn't, it's just an estraordinarily strong bear) no major increase in price started right away suddently inverting a fast decline. At least, no one that was not negated almost as suddently.
The real rallys always build very gradually from long periods of low volatility. This is only reasonabble, confidence needs to build step by step -and now it has been deadly shaken.
So, in the present conditions (which are just the opposite), there are really only two possible outcomes:
1) price stabilizes. So in a matter of months it might start rising again significantly... then you will have the occasion to buy almost as cheaply (at least in comparison with the gains that will come); but with much less risk.
or
2) price drops even lower. And you can lose 20%-30%-50% in a whim.
Hence my question. Why buy? Unless you are thinking really short-term -and with this volatility, I mean hours.
Everyone else would be much better off not buying at all. Much less risk of losing everything; not much to lose anyway, since there simply is nothing better at the horizon than flat stability.
It's probably best also to remove bids: as you can see, bounces are negligible, so there isn't even the opportunity to sell before it falls even lower. We went from 100$ to 50$, and now we are barely over 60$. Anyone that had bids anywhere from 100$ down to 70$ (and was not locked to his screen) has been quite screwed.
Let the price go down. Let's remove all speculations (in our own interest) -and let demand be only driven by the ones that really do want the coins for some real-world added value.
We have foundamentals, haven't we? This is just the moment to test them. What would the price be then?
You have reasonable points. However, your basic premise is that bitcoin will follow the established patterns that stocks, bonds, and mature currency markets follow. I think it is a mistake to make this assumption. One of the primary reasons that the stock market follows these patterns (technical analysis) is because the traders believe in technical analysis. In the bitcoin market right now, there are some people that are from traditional finance backgrounds, but I would argue that the majority are not and the majority do not care about technical indicators and historical patterns. When the bias in favor of following technical patterns is removed, then the likelihood that the instrument in question follows said patterns is greatly reduced.
Therefore, when considering what will happen to the BTC echange rates going forward, there is a significant chance that BTC will now follow any boom/bust bubble/crash pattern previously seen in financial markets. Add in the concept that bitcoin valuation is incredibly complex and I think you get some really strange trading patterns that will not match those seen with most financial instruments.
