What are the odds of Winklesoss ETF passing? [POLL]

[Searing]

What in your view are the odds of the Winklevoss ETF getting approval by
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?

Also take the poll.

Thanks.

[ProfessionalGoogler]

What in your view are the odds of the Winklevoss ETF getting approval by
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?

Also take the poll.

Thanks.

I believe it will happen, America needs to keep investing in all BTC projects, or other countries like China will just continue to rule and take over.

They would be stupid to reject these great guys.

[Denker]

I'm pessimistic.
Don't think it will get approved.
SEC will find a reason to reject it.
This doesn't mean it will never happen. Maybe one of the other two will have a bigger chance I don't know.
As we know the Winklevoss bros always got surpassed by others.
Maybe the SolidX or the other ETF by Barry Shilbert can make it.

[alyssa85]

The crackdown on fake trading in China should help. The SEC would probably have never approved anything where trading was 90% in China. Now it looks like western exchanges control 2/3rds of the trading.

However, the mining concentration in China is still a problem. There are a cartel already, which is a no-no, and if the Chinese govt wanted to get spiteful they could close it down. It would have been better if mining was distributed around the world.

[Searing]

What in your view are the odds of the Winklevoss ETF getting approval by
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?

Also take the poll.

Thanks.

I believe it will happen, America needs to keep investing in all BTC projects, or other countries like China will just continue to rule and take over.

They would be stupid to reject these great guys.

My view is the safe bet for the buearacracy and SEC civil servants is to just punt it back to the drawing board
as a complete redo. To much finance money and lobby's for such slinging FUD imho,
for SEC to do so. No upside for passing ETF from SEC point of view imho.

I hope I'm dead frigging wrong thou!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Can we expect a horrible dump & price fall if the ETF gets rejected? I fear that is going to happen.

[Denker]

Can we expect a horrible dump & price fall if the ETF gets rejected? I fear that is going to happen.

This is a good question.
Yes I think due to some disappointment a drop could happen.
And maybe one or the other whale tries to trigger even more dumps who knows.
On the other, most of the people will know that the chance this thing getting approved is very low.
Imo it would only be a short drop.Smart investors will try to take advantage of that if it happens.

[Paashaas]

I think the SEC will reject the ETF, Bitcoin is still not mature/liquid enough.

It will be reviewed later this ore next year...but it will get approved at some point.

[pitham1]

What in your view are the odds of the Winklevoss ETF getting approval by
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?

Also take the poll.

Thanks.

I believe it will happen, America needs to keep investing in all BTC projects, or other countries like China will just continue to rule and take over.

They would be stupid to reject these great guys.

My view is the safe bet for the buearacracy and SEC civil servants is to just punt it back to the drawing board
as a complete redo. To much finance money and lobby's for such slinging FUD imho,
for SEC to do so. No upside for passing ETF from SEC point of view imho.

I hope I'm dead frigging wrong thou!

They have been lobbing it back and forth for more than 3 years now. I think at this point, the regulators would just let it go through. Test the waters through this ETF and impose regulations if required later.

[Biodom]

chances are generally considered low (25% or less), therefore, btc should not drop much as it should be priced in already.
However, I hope that SEC will just sit on it, thereby "approving" it by default (no action).
they can always point to this later and say...see, we did not actively "approve".
If approved, I am penciling 5% of my IRAs deployed there in the first two weeks or a month, depending on whether it would jump to some silliness immediately or behaves similar to GLD in the first 6 mo (essentially, flat to down).

[gentlemand]

Every day without a withdrawal increases the chance of a yes. Having said that I think the odds are still low. Easier to say no to a small group than say yes to big one that might be exposed to a shitshow.

[quake313]

What in your view are the odds of the Winklevoss ETF getting approval by
March 11th, 2017. It has been 3.5 years in the planning? Most of the press
I read says only a 1 in 4 shot at SEC approval. What do you think?

Also take the poll.

Thanks.

No way it gets approved while the scaling wars continue.  Too high of a chance for terrible loss from a multiple chain outcome.

[Searing]

Can we expect a horrible dump & price fall if the ETF gets rejected? I fear that is going to happen.

Not so much I think. I don't think the market expects the ETF to be passed. IF so it will be a damn nice surprise.

the price of BTC imho will go to the 'moon' big time!

imho ...NONE of the price rises we are seeing with BTC has anything to do with the Winklevoss ETF being approved on March 11th, 2017



moving away from the above 'bright note' above

looking at the other press and such I give the odds of the ETF passing in my 'own mind' 1 out of 20 now.

So looking around went and discouraged myself further. Such a pretty dream it was for March 2017 thou it was......

Every day without a withdrawal increases the chance of a yes. Having said that I think the odds are still low. Easier to say no to a small group than say yes to big one that might be exposed to a shitshow.

The problem is ...if they don't get it ...they have to do a 'complete re-do' and that it took 3.5 years from conception of their ETF fund till March 11th...likely they will
just say screw it and not even bother to try the process again. At that point, imho ..it will be the other guys that proposed their own ETF this year..which would probably
be another 2 years down the road plus..if they play the same 'string along the BTC ETF's on approval as LONG as possible.

A guy would think from the above that 'bank lobby' folk and other FUD would be messing with our BTC adoption of a BTC ETF. Naw....can't be rigged against us like that right? ;(

[Amph]

I think the SEC will reject the ETF, Bitcoin is still not mature/liquid enough.

It will be reviewed later this ore next year...but it will get approved at some point.

well you need exposure to have more liquid and be more mature, etf is the best compromise for this now, by approving it it will benefit to bitcoin

the reason must be jurisdictional and not related to bitcoin growth

Can we expect a horrible dump & price fall if the ETF gets rejected? I fear that is going to happen.

i don't think so, price reached this tage two times, it will be harder for any dump to make it again $700, because more people bought again at these level

[hector3115]

That one Winklevoss lawyer that worked on getting it approved cited the number one reason why it wouldn't get approved was due to 95% of the trading volume taking place in China.  

However, thanks to China curbing margin trading, worldwide volume has now evened out nicely around the world.

Here is the article from the Winky lawyer.

http://www.coindesk.com/ex-gemini-lawyer-sec-unlikely-to-approve-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf/

I think the SEC won't want to miss out the next big thing.  Plus Trump has surrounded himself with some Bitcoin friendly people who have for sure brought it up to him at least (Peter Thiel, Mick Mulvaney, and even sat down with 21,inc CEO Balaji Svinivasan)

[Red-Apple]

Can we expect a horrible dump & price fall if the ETF gets rejected? I fear that is going to happen.

if you think all this time price was rising because of something that you (i am assuming) didn't know much about then you can expect it to fall too

but generally whenever there is a news and market is ready to move in a specific direction that news becomes big.
for example right now you can find at least 20 different topics (mostly from newbie accounts) and even more comments talking about China and their meeting!
so if ETF was rejected or passed, and you saw lots of talk about it then you can expect it to affect the price.

i voted no because i think the chances are too low.

[afbitcoins]

I suspect they ('the parasites that be') are still too afraid and unsure of bitcoin to endorse it in any way and that they wish it will fail or just go away.

I said no.

Be interesting if they do pass the ETF  though

[houseo]

BitMEX says about 30%

https://www.bitmex.com/app/trade/COIN_BH17

[jofus]

Perhaps they strung it along to the max because they don't want to approve it but had no real reason to deny it.  In which case it will slide through on auto-pass on the 11th.

[Alley]

SEC insiders have been buying over the last year so they have a decent stash before approval.  Price will skyrocket when trading starts and make them all very rich.