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Author Topic: Stoploss Do Not Work Anymore  (Read 599 times)
Riptide999
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February 08, 2017, 10:26:38 AM
 #1

Firstly, I'll admit I'm very amateur at trading.  I'm mostly just a long-term holder (Bitcoin Believer), but I've been dabbling in Bitcoin trading since 2012 though so I have some sort of feel for the market.

Something seems to have changed in my opinion.  Back in 2012/2013 I was able to put together a nice little trading plan when I bought or sold and use stoplosses effectively.  I would place my stoploss in a smart place, it wouldn't usually get hunted and I ended up with more good trades than bad ones.  Also, that big ATH in 2013 seemed a lot more predictable and made sense, I could take a fair guess when the market was overbought (silly above trend) and oversold (silly below trend).

Now fast-forward to this Dec 2016 to Feb 2017...I know technically the volatility is a lot lower than 2013, but predicting the market direction seems crazy difficult compared to previous years.  My skill level hasn't got worse, but every time I predict the direction of the market it then goes in exactly the opposite direction.  Like recently, even after a huge quick pump that looks clearly overbought I get it wrong (I would say its a good time to sell). 

In particular, I don't understand how my stoplosses are now getting hunted so PRECISELY.  Are the exchanges giving stoploss data to big traders?  For example, in this previous week I sold my BTC at $1015 with a stoploss if the price got to $1060 and $1060 was waaaay above any trends at that time (price was tight sideways between $1010 and $1020).  Then see what happened, the price just kept increasing until it reached $1066 (only a measly $6 above my stoploss and then instantly after a HUGE RED DILD* and market crash down to $1010.

My point is, no matter where you put a stoploss these days, even at a really distant price, it is getting hunted with crazy precision.  It makes having a trading plan pointless in my opinion.  What the hell?
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brobbel
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February 08, 2017, 10:50:48 AM
 #2

every time I predict the direction of the market it then goes in exactly the opposite direction.

If that's consequently so, please share your predictions so we know its going in the opposite direction  Smiley (just kidding)


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talkbitcoin
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February 08, 2017, 10:54:12 AM
 #3

i have never encountered this, maybe the problem is with the platform that you are using!

anyways, bitcoin price has always been so volatile and hard to predict and nothing has changed about it from 2012/2013 until today. the same rules for stoploss,... still applies.

and in my experience things such as stoploss and any automation like that needs more rules, rules that can only be set with a bot. for example if the price were reached and then if ... and if... and if... were true then execute the stoploss. and you can't achieve that on an exchange platform.














 

 

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sandiman
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February 08, 2017, 10:55:00 AM
 #4

Exchange don't care of few dollars you bet on each trade, it is not worth any hustle.


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Boxman90
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February 08, 2017, 11:21:31 AM
 #5

Think of it like this: when you put in a stop-loss in an exchange-based GUI, you're giving free information at that point, saying "HEY! I'm willing to sell all my bitcoins at x-$ below market price". Information has value.

I'm don't want to accuse exchanges of selling any of this data, but realize that at least to the exchange you're giving up this information for free. At least the exchange knows, while it shouldn't have to know.

If you want to work with stop-loss, keep the stop-loss mechanism in your own control and use the API to execute it when the price hits trigger-$, so you can avoid giving information for free to a third party.

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February 08, 2017, 12:09:39 PM
 #6

I wouldn't even bother going to sleep with opened orders in bitcoin... im not going to risk being on fiat, so I just buy and hold on sight. When there is dip that I like, I buy in, and that's it, I do it all automatically, we are on a constant bull.

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February 08, 2017, 12:23:07 PM
 #7

ussualy in bitcoin trading pair fiat money or forex trading iam never use stoploss
ussualy iam use averaging system or martiangle system if wrong


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MatDerKater
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February 08, 2017, 03:56:24 PM
 #8

Exchange don't care of few dollars you bet on each trade, it is not worth any hustle.

Complete and utter bullshit.

I know a trader who had great success in calculating position liquidation points on OkCoin, and then using them as targets. i.e. If price goes to point Z, then X amount of contracts get liquidated, and therefore, point Z is my target. That was on OkCoin. I also have enough experience on Bitfinex to know that no position is too small for them to go after. Remember, it isn't just one small position, but dozens of small positions being stopped out 24/7. Way better business for any bucket shop exchange than trying to scrape by from trade fees alone.
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February 08, 2017, 05:11:23 PM
 #9

You're only going to get played with a stop loss on bitcoin.

For the reason above, people will tank the price into your sell limit and wtfbbqsaucepwn you. 

I would bet a few people pay to know large stop losses on exchanges..
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February 08, 2017, 06:56:50 PM
 #10

Exchange don't care of few dollars you bet on each trade, it is not worth any hustle.

Complete and utter bullshit.

I know a trader who had great success in calculating position liquidation points on OkCoin, and then using them as targets. i.e. If price goes to point Z, then X amount of contracts get liquidated, and therefore, point Z is my target. That was on OkCoin. I also have enough experience on Bitfinex to know that no position is too small for them to go after. Remember, it isn't just one small position, but dozens of small positions being stopped out 24/7. Way better business for any bucket shop exchange than trying to scrape by from trade fees alone.

I agree with that analysis and saw it aswell for bitcoin unregulated exchage and trading strategy.

but they don't look for his small position again, just a range that will trigger a snowball effect.


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February 08, 2017, 07:13:03 PM
 #11

You got fooled by the wolves of the day trading market? cool story bro!!! you may not be aware of this but people are literally living by ripping off solo traders like you. there are hands above hands always you have been outsmarted.

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February 09, 2017, 02:35:14 AM
 #12

when it comes to trading you always need to adapt with the market. you say your stoploss is reached with accuracy when you open it on the exchange then use a third party bot so that exchange doesn't know about it!

and also set another order watch to buy back in case price went up after you sold.

problem solved!

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