[edited out
Right there with you ambatman. I'd set some lofty but achievable goals back in 2021 about where I wanted my stack size to be by mid point 2025. I'm at that accumulation point now, where I have exceeded these goals a year early. I definitely feel a little bit like I will have over accumulated by mid 2025, but I'm continuing along with my plan. I'm in it for long haul, and so far so good.
It seems like similar things happened for me in regards to setting various goals and then reaching them earlier than expected, and surely some of the goals ended up changing along the way which was likely based on learning along the way.
It likely is not bad to get to a point of reaching your goal and then overaccumulating to some degree, especially since you had been spreading your BTC accumulation over a whole 4 year cycle.. .. yet there might be some tailoring that you might end up planning on doing, yet for sure we cannot really be sure what the BTC price is going to do for the remainder of this year or next year...even though we have some ideas, so I would imagine that you have already accounted for the theories regarding what might happen and then other aspects of what ends up happening to the extent that it might end up varying from expectations.
Even for me, I think that I had some dilemmas when I was enterring into a state in which I realized that I had enough BTC which was late 2014, yet I could not really resist continuing to buy more throughout 2015 and even into 2016.. but then I think that I kind of started to figure out ways to transition into a different kind of thinking by the time 2017 came.. so each person has their own little transitioning points...and maybe some personal tweaks that you might make to whatever you are doing in regards to accumulation/continuing to accumulate or perhaps getting into some kind of a maintenance stage - which can also vary for guys.
Its a nice feeling getting there a bit earlier, I have a pretty good plan from now until end of the year. Will re-asses again closer to Dec as I plan out next year. The over accumulation though gives me some buffer, the one decision I need to make though is whether i transition to maintenance or keep accumulating. I haven't quite got there yet, but I am thinking about it. Tentative timeline to make a decision is to overaccumulate to end of 2025, then during my Dec 2025 planning transition. As of now though I could easily talk myself into starting another accumulation phase post 2025, but we will see what happens.
Whenever choppiness comes up in the price, I always go back to the 200 WMA and go are we uppity,downity or matchity to it so there is some comfort here at the moment with 34k 200 wma vs 56-62k short -term range we are in now.
I am not sure where you are finding your 200-WMA, but all the places I see the 200-WMA, it is just above $38k, currently.
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategySurely we should be able to have some reliance on the 200-WMA as a kind of bottom.. even though surely we know that it can be broken through from time to time, and we still have to witness more time with the BTC price staying close to it for longer periods of time in the future if the BTC price might start to go up slower or less fast (maybe bitcoin getting out of its earliest stages of adoption and the price slope becoming less steep with the passage of time), and through bitcoin's history, the 200-WMA has continued to go up and BTC's spot price has tended to mostly stay above it, even tending to be more than 50% above it as it is right now right in that price territory...
My bad I typo'd that WMA #, I was thinking of the number but my kb fingers decided an alternative one. Ultimately for me personally the WMA is a nice barometer, not just as a bottom indicator but as strength in the market. Next 6 months should see an increase in the rate of change w/w in WMA as per the 4 yr cycle, so thats something I'm watching week to week. Whether it does, or slow down or whatever happens, will be using that data for decision making when the time comes.
@Greyhats: Immediately stop your BTC accumulations!!!!!, and don't go into an overaccumulation status.. it is not worth it.. Ask Phil.. He knows everything (or almost everything.. that's why you probably already have more BTC than him..., which should be the opposite. hahahahahahaha).
Oh noooooesssss what will i do!
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