Real supply rally or short liquidity hunt?
My two cents:
Volume is turning green, but doesn't increase relatively to the past of this bear market phase (i'd say starting on October 26th EDIT:2025).
Which is showing similarities to the days before the drop after the (double) top in 2025.
I still give the probability that we had a cycle bottom yet no more than 0.2
Busy doing shitty stuff, lately.
EDIT2: Spot seems to come back slowly, though. Oh, and did i forget to say "Fuck Derivatives"?
OOM - Don't you want Bitcoin to act more like gold? BTC derivatives (futures, options, ETFs) are designed to make Bitcoin act more like gold by increasing institutional access, enhancing liquidity, and potentially dampening extreme volatility.
Bitcoin is not like gold, it is approximately 1,000x better than gold, even if not currently reflected in the price, you dumbass.
Currently Bitcoin is acting more like a high-risk tech stock, diverging from gold's typical safe-haven role.
Bitcoin is being manipulated more through various paper products than it would need to be manipulated, and sure, bitcoin is for friends and enemies, and there are certain needs to accept that bitcoin is going to be attacked, yet we don't need to be sucking the dicks of our attackers.. even though you, BTCETFInvestor, seem to just love sucking the dicks of the financial institutions, the government and the status quo rich who are engaged in co-optation endeavors while telling you that it is "for your own good."
actually BTC is decoupling from the market
feb 5 59k march 13 to 73k
market on feb 5 49k to 46.8k dow
nasdaq 22.5k feb 5
nasdaq 22.4k march 13
gold feb 5 4800
gold march 13 5091
silver price feb 5 78
silver price march 13 82
seems to me BTC has decoupled From all above
and has the biggest gain From feb 5 to March 13
this is a new bull run in the making due to Iran war with Trump
You are likely "calling it" too soon... even though you might be correct about the budding evidence of such a possibility.
By the way, don't get me wrong. I have never been a great fan of proclamations that bitcoin is correlated to any of of the various segments of the market, even if there might be some short term evidence of such correlations and even likely attempts by status quo manipulators to both create the physical impression of correlation and to spout out such correlation talking point.
So in that sense, it likely simultaneously appropriate to proclaim that bitcoin "always has been" not correlated.
Huh? How could that be pain, relatively speaking?
Earlier you had suggested that you were not selling any of your bitcoin, so you were going through pain based on your going from a higher state of profits (on paper) and then to a lower state of profits (on paper) and based on feeling stupid for not having had sold as your friends, family and perhaps other acquaintances were pointing at you and laughing because you could have had sold out at 40x-ish profits, but instead you were ONLY able to potentially sell in the ballpark of 6x profits..
That period was less painful to me, since I felt at that time that I was still more than 3x profits even at the lowest price points in that timeframe - even though there weren't really a loss of folks calling for $1,500 and even lower prices as if such level of dip "technically" "had to happen," and we later found out that such level of dip did not "have to happen."
I guess I never looked at it from a bot's view... The human in me was looking at lost potential profits, not how much I was currently up... Thinking you made the worst financial choice by not selling is the pain I am talking about.
Sure we all likely suffer a wee bit towards getting sucked into feelings of "loss aversion."
My friends were bad, but I beat myself up for being overinvested and wildly under... It worked out great in the end, and now, 10 years later, I say the pain is a lot less because I have started to only think about where we're at now, not where we were.
For sure. Any of us who had ended up "overinvesting" into bitcoin ended up benefiting in stupendous ways by that potential error.
In several ways, I had considered myself in terms of being conservative in my bitcoin investing from late 2013 through late 2014 - yet at the same time, since the BTC price kept dropping so much through out 2014 and then staying down for so long through out 2015, my prior assessments of conservatism began to transform into feelings of having had over done it... so many times, especially 2015, I had to ongoingly remind myself about my earlier assessment that I was not investing any more than I could have had afforded to lose, so in that regard, I had not overdone it, even though my overall holdings was taking a relatively large hit to be spending so much time being down into the territories of greater than 50% losses (meaning my holdings continued to be priced on the market at less than half the amount that I had put in).
If I had sold and missed out on buying back in, I would be 1000% worse off than I am now!!!
Not ONLY were the various internet websites (not excluding this here thread) were filled with bitcoin naysayers "advising" to cut looses, there was similar kinds of advice that I was receiving from various normies in the real world (not unsmart people) who seemed to know for sure that bitcopin was going to continue to go down.. even though we were spending quite a bit of time in the lower to mid $200s through an overwhelming large portion of 2015.
As I haven't sold much in the last 10 years, I did buy some extremely expensive (relative) items with my cornz before I realized how powerful they really were!
That was one mistake that I did not make... I tended to do spend and replace, even during the time periods (such as late 2017) in which it should have had been o.k. to shave off some "profits."
Also, hopefully my time-based withdrawal that I am currently fond of should last me till I am 90 before I am out of said cornz,
The way that I structure and theorized time-based withdrawal is that the supply never, ever, ever runs out since the dollar amount that is ongoingly being withdrawn is on average lower than the dollar amount that the BTC price (value) is appreciating. So if you do it correctly, there should be absolutely no reason to run out of BTC, until such time that you might purposefully choose to deplete the principle (perhaps based on end of life type considerations or some other reasons that you might end up purposefully choosing to deplete your principle).
I am not proclaiming that my ideas are always clear, but I have quite a bit of discussion of time-based sustainable withdrawal in
my sustainable withdrawal thread. In other words, you seem to have some different way of thinking about time-based withdrawal than me, and maybe that is why you don't use the "sustainable" descriptor in what you proclaim that you are planning to do.
I will concede that even my own ways of talking about sustainable withdrawal (whether time based or price based) has changed since my late 2023 creation of my sustainable withdrawal thread.
and I have no kids to leave it to!
Surely can be a bit of a dilemma if there are concerns about if there might be any errors or reasons to still have assets at the time you croak.
I personally am not completely against ideas of dying on zero, yet at the same time, with bitcoin, there seems to be ways to really live in excess with enough and even more than what is needed, even while preserving the principle as a kind of insurance policy.. so I have some difficulties considering that dying with capital to necessarily be any kind of a major sacrifice of "additional funzies" that could have had taken place.
Also, you don't have to worry about the price so much, as even though I set up those sales, I don't have to execute them unless I need to acquire dirty fiat for another toy I really have to have!!!
We all get our cornz at the price we deserve them at!
K
At a certain point, the question should not revolve too much around how much profits that we might have or not have, yet instead the extent to which we have enough (or more than enough) cornz to be able to shave off some of the cornz at any price that we like, even though surely there are likely disinclinations to sell very much bitcoin during periods like these when the correction in the ballpark of 40% or greater, yet at the same time, if we have enough or more than enough bitcoin, then the extent of our bitcoin price cushion may well be a rounding error, since I can recall somewhere in 2019-ish telling myself that I am going to structure whatever that I do so that I am not selling any bitcoin below $5k and in that regard, if the BTC price goes below $5k, I am either buying more or just holding through the situation, to the extent that I don't have enough money to buy.
So in that sense, if I were to be in a similar mindset that I had justified in around 2019, then I should be able to appreciate that any additional BTC prices above $5k remains a form of icing on the cake, even if we might adjust the amount upwardly from time to time in order to account for the ongoing debasement of the dollar so $5k in 2019 may well be $10k or more right now, depending on how we might consider the ever-present debasement of the dollar (and other fiat currencies) issue.
Poll
