Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

It's quite interesting and serves as an example that BTC is booming:

BTCBitcoin price gained 50% the last time its volatility fell this low

*The Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index has fallen to its lowest level since September 2023, hinting at a potential breakout.

*The short-term holder realized cap drawdown is at -8%, which is historically a bullish accumulation zone.

If this new volatility regime holds, it’s possible that BVIV may remain subdued longer than in past cycles, delaying a sharp volatility-driven price surge. That said, past behavior around these levels has skewed bullish, and investors could be keeping a close watch on any deviation.

Cointelegraph: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-gained-50percent-the-last-time-its-volatility-fell-this-low

Something curious is that many are buying at the high BTC prices, I think that is a very positive thing.

It's entirely possible that all that institutional activity is causing this as well.
MSTR option premiums are down too, for now.

I have a call to make here: the top of this cycle would be when large btc treasury companies (like XXI and BSTR) will start trading, plus minus one-two month(s).
At least one or both of them might derp spectacularly, potentially bringing MSTR downwards as well.

You can already see this in VB token treasury companies that are showing a "stupid" trading pattern as they repeatedly dilute the common by buying tokens using shares ATM.
Two most idiotic companies so far (not going to mention as they are easy to find).
If you were nimble, you could have traded them, otherwise...forget about it.

it's actually really interesting that almost every cycle we know in advance what will cause (or at least fuel) the next bear market...

Bitcoin is transparent even in that regard lol

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[kanftka]

15 years ago yesterday, "29/7/2025''.. Satoshi Nakamoto said: "If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry."

Today, Bitcoin is now a global currency and store of value..



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=532.msg6306#msg6306

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

What a snoozefest, this is more tedious than watching grass grow.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

What a snoozefest, this is more tedious than watching grass grow.

Yeah I am looking to open the Elijah 129.8 proof bottle this week..


and found a 140 proof

So I have a

129.8
130.1
140.0


https://www.kingscountydistillery.com/products/distillers-proof-moonshine?_pos=4&_sid=3776a2db9&_ss=r?variant=45517836550306

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Buddy how bout getting us past 129.1 soon so I can open the Elijah whisky.

[Gachapin]

Buddy how bout getting us past 129.1 soon so I can open the Elijah whisky.

maybe it's the other way around and you need to open it to stimulate buddy...

[Gachapin]

I just correct my initial reply:
USER COMPLAINT (please be brief):  ____ vapourminer, constantly ignoring and not appreciating few quality posts ______
I think we are all settle now?

To say it in another way.  I am going to complain about vapourminer with the hope that he becomes inspired to send me more merits in the future.  

There is probably a better way to go about trying to accomplish that.. .. but hey, what do I know? I am an alleged "push-over"  (an smerit sending "softie" who apparently falls into the trap of being "played" by the merit farmers and the other members who don't deserve smerits).  

vapourminer has read are resolved your complain by becoming nicer to you.

Don't know with whom you are "softie", as I am thinking of writing a similar complain for you Mr. JJG.

Just to stir the pot (I can't help myself sometimes).  I love the idea of the guy criticizing longtime Bitcoiners like myself for continuing to stack sats, being obsessed with trying to earn merit (which is completely useless).  At what point did some people in this thread become so weird that posting for merit is more respectable than posting for sats?  It is obvious that this is a ridiculous opinion to have right?  

For the record, I would much prefer people sent me sats as opposed to merits for my posts so feel free to do that instead if you'd like.

yeah the hand full of people on the thread that may or may not have more than 10 btc do not want people to pick up some crumbs,


Yeah I know its cut and paste herea lot, but once in a while I see a new idea that was grabbed from x and pasted here.

There is not much for those that did dca's and hodl to do or say about btc on the thread.

They won and they still bitch and moan about a little guy trying to win.

just a final thought on this...

The problem in the end is not  the copy paste stuff itself. As you say, there is sometimes interesting info in it. But it's the intension that matters quite a bit.

The c/p posts are not coming out of interest in Bitcoin or in a discussion about it. It's that sterile try & error pattern to get merits which disgusts me.


Like for example, if your wife tells you that you are a great guy, it probably (hopefully) comes from the heart.  It's something totally different when a car salesman tells you the exact same thing because he wants you to sell a car.

It's the intention and the person behind an action that defines that action and how we feel about it ...imo  

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Volgastallion]

I was jsut updating my spreadsheet on my latest contest and i see aside of the super conservative prediction we have from a lot of users, we are still falling below it.

So... is gonna be August the month of the big push?

Here is the data.(sorry about the resolution) First column was 30days second column 60 days and third one 90 days after 8 may.

[spooderman]

118k gang checking in

[Biodom]

118k gang checking in

eh....can we all just agree on a target of, say, 250k and move to it, pronto?
it would be much appreciated, lol.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

eh....can we all just agree on a target of, say, 250k and move to it pronto?
it would be much appreciated, lol.

Not much I wouldn’t do for the price to hit $250,000 this year. I’ll settle for a top of $150,000 - $180,000 though, I’m not greedy.

Would like to see us breakout to the upside violently soon. We’ve chopped enough, time to enter euphoria.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[promise444c5]

The working group has given some comment ( fact sheet).. No comment about Bitcoin reserve  particularly but they mentioned:
Digital Asset Taxation

Our tax rules must align with new technologies and eliminate compliance hurdles for both individuals and businesses engaged in activities involving digital assets. The Working Group recommends that:

Treasury and the IRS reduce burdens on taxpayers by publishing guidance on topics related to CAMT, wrapping transactions, and de minimis receipts of digital assets.

Treasury and the IRS review previously issued guidance on the tax treatment of activities like mining and staking.

Congress enact legislation that treats digital assets as a new class of assets subject to modified versions of tax rules applicable to securities or commodities for Federal income tax purposes and add digital assets to the list of assets subject to wash sale rules.

 

Combating Illicit Finance:

Treasury and the appropriate regulators provide clarity regarding BSA obligations and reporting.

Congress reinforce the importance of self-custody and clarify the AML/CFT obligations of actors within the decentralized finance ecosystem.

Regulators work to prevent the misuse of authorities to target lawful activities of law-abiding citizens and protect citizens’ privacy.

among others
Read more : https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-the-presidents-working-group-on-digital-asset-markets-releases-recommendations-to-strengthen-american-leadership-in-digital-financial-technology/

Not even a sentence about reserve.. not surprised either, maybe later it will be mentioned
With or without reserve, Bitcoin will thrive  

[philipma1957]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/not-just-cyclical-recovery-boom-195339244.html

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fortune
‘Not just a cyclical recovery, but a boom.’ BofA says a ‘key tail risk’ is that the Trump economy will actually start to take off
--------------------------------------------------------------------

In a market landscape still fixated on fears of stagflation and modest recoveries, Bank of America is sounding a contrarian—and decidedly bullish—note.

According to new note from BofA Research analysts, the next phase for the U.S. economy and equities might not be a routine recovery, but an outright boom.

“Today a confluence of factors argue that the key tail risk that may not be priced in is not just a cyclical recovery, but a boom,” they said.

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All of above from the same yahoo page.


JJG asks time and time again

"are you prepared for uppity"



I am not if we take off tomorrow.


To those that are good luck with your incoming fortunes.