Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DeathAngel]

Price hovering around 90,000 USD which considering sentiment in the space is fairly neutral is actually quite bullish. I mean 90,000 USD would have been a dream 5 or 6 years ago. We have come a long way but the price could be so much higher & with time, it will be. Spot ETFs were not approved long ago, institutional involvement will soar over the next years. Boomers will add Bitcoin to retirement plans. Mature investors don’t have weak hands so those coins will continue to be swept up & stay off the market.

Saylor will continue to take a huge amount of coins off the market. We are at the very beginning of what I believe is the maturation of Bitcoin. It is entering true mainstream now, price will follow & I will be surprised if we don’t breach 1M USD by 2040. I am looking at 250,000 USD by 2030. We just need to keep buying, there could be a certain amount of institutional suppression going on to keep prices low whilst they accumulate but that will stop. When their bags are full, they will let it go. Look at precious metals, investors moaned for years and now they are flying. Be patient, Bitcoin is going to the moon.

[philipma1957]

Maybe it is just me but sometimes your posts come across like the opposite, statements of certainty. I have some trouble interpreting them at times. Thank you for explaining. I think that in the coming time we will be able to confirm whether the cycle theory is dead or not. The coming months are key.

I typ a lot of uncorrected stream of consciousness post's

It is an intentional style as bots do not effort to copy it and when they do they make a huge mess of what they write.

watch this video and you will understand why I write the way I do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMmMeajKVGM

this is what we are facing right now on a small scale

just think of what it will be like in a decade

notice typ first sentence  left it that way even though I saw it was wrong

That's how HODL was born, so, yes, I'm with you on this. Be genuine, be authentic, whatever comes out of the KB, leave it unchanged, as long as it conveys the meaning.

Sometimes I wish I could do this too, but my OCD forces me to proof-read and correct mistakes.

sometimes it is so fucking not understandable I do correct it.

but most of the time I leave it alone.



as for ai and the like that karate kid robot is a preview of what will be going on down the road.

at DeathAngel my ebay sale was created because of your forum name.


https://www.ebay.com/itm/168069188285


i found that inspiration from you thanks.



btw a few more silver sales and I will be done.

I will simply add btc via mining for the year.

[BitHodlers]

You can read, no?  
I was asking a simple question.
Possible answers: Yes, No.
Single choice.

Understood?

Like this I will skip on this question. Thanks for the interest though, you can communicate this way with the ETF bot.

It will become very clear whether the cycle theory is dead. If it is that will give us interesting and new perspectives of everything.

I thought that in my earlier post that I was actually attempting to suggest that cycle theory is dead and alive at the same time.. or maybe that the existence of cycle theory is not black and white in terms of the extent to which it continues to have any influence even if it might not retain its earlier seeming dominant influential status.

In other words, there could be a bit of error in attempting to suggest importance in regards to the extent that cycle theory is alive, dead or in some other status. or the extent to which cycle theory might end up losing its dominance in light of current/future bitcoin price dynamics.

Regarding your "this time is different" assessment of the manipulation.  There has to be some difference because the players and the tools are ongoingly changing, yet I doubt that all frameworks for looking at prices and/or price dynamics are losing their importance.  In other words, large players have frequently tried to control the BTC price for as long as they can, including keeping it down as much as they can and for as long as they can.  The extent to their success (or lack thereof) might give us some signs, even though many times, the manipulation is likely intended to contribute to the loss of confidence to inspire coin holders to release their coins.

Importance is very subjective. What I meant here that if the theory is really dead, we will interesting new stuff not that it is important in the ultimate scheme of things. In recent time many people have been obsessed with this theory regardless if they are bullish or bearish people. That is pretty uninteresting, I would like some new perspectives on the market. They will come faster if the theory is confirmed to be dead, so a bullish 2026 would do it.

Price hovering around 90,000 USD which considering sentiment in the space is fairly neutral is actually quite bullish. I mean 90,000 USD would have been a dream 5 or 6 years ago. We have come a long way but the price could be so much higher & with time, it will be. Spot ETFs were not approved long ago, institutional involvement will soar over the next years. Boomers will add Bitcoin to retirement plans. Mature investors don’t have weak hands so those coins will continue to be swept up & stay off the market.

Saylor will continue to take a huge amount of coins off the market. We are at the very beginning of what I believe is the maturation of Bitcoin. It is entering true mainstream now, price will follow & I will be surprised if we don’t breach 1M USD by 2040. I am looking at 250,000 USD by 2030. We just need to keep buying, there could be a certain amount of institutional suppression going on to keep prices low whilst they accumulate but that will stop. When their bags are full, they will let it go. Look at precious metals, investors moaned for years and now they are flying. Be patient, Bitcoin is going to the moon.

I like this take. 

[AlcoHoDL]

Price hovering around 90,000 USD which considering sentiment in the space is fairly neutral is actually quite bullish. I mean 90,000 USD would have been a dream 5 or 6 years ago. We have come a long way but the price could be so much higher & with time, it will be. Spot ETFs were not approved long ago, institutional involvement will soar over the next years. Boomers will add Bitcoin to retirement plans. Mature investors don’t have weak hands so those coins will continue to be swept up & stay off the market.

Saylor will continue to take a huge amount of coins off the market. We are at the very beginning of what I believe is the maturation of Bitcoin. It is entering true mainstream now, price will follow & I will be surprised if we don’t breach 1M USD by 2040. I am looking at 250,000 USD by 2030. We just need to keep buying, there could be a certain amount of institutional suppression going on to keep prices low whilst they accumulate but that will stop. When their bags are full, they will let it go. Look at precious metals, investors moaned for years and now they are flying. Be patient, Bitcoin is going to the moon.

I see $250k by 2030 as somewhat bearish, I think we're going to reach it sooner.

But even so, I'm fine with your predictions. Even now, $90k is a dream come true to many of us entering @ $200 a coin, so, yes, a win-win in my book. Looking fwd to the future!

[OutOfMemory]

Price hovering around 90,000 USD which considering sentiment in the space is fairly neutral is actually quite bullish. I mean 90,000 USD would have been a dream 5 or 6 years ago. We have come a long way but the price could be so much higher & with time, it will be. Spot ETFs were not approved long ago, institutional involvement will soar over the next years. Boomers will add Bitcoin to retirement plans. Mature investors don’t have weak hands so those coins will continue to be swept up & stay off the market.

Saylor will continue to take a huge amount of coins off the market. We are at the very beginning of what I believe is the maturation of Bitcoin. It is entering true mainstream now, price will follow and I will be surprised if we don’t breach 1M USD by 2040. I am looking at 250,000 USD by 2030. We just need to keep buying, there could be a certain amount of institutional suppression going on to keep prices low whilst they accumulate but that will stop. When their bags are full, they will let it go. Look wt precious metals, investors moaned for years and now they are flying. Be patient, Bitcoin is going to the moon.

I second almost all of the above, but when it comes to maturity of Bitcoin, i think Papercorn isn't any step forward. And this is about the only movement towards "mainstream", but it's the opposite of almost everything Bitcoin was about.
And don't dare to bring up Ordinals/Inscriptions and the recent Core vs. Knots politics. Yes, indeed, politics. It's nowhere near consensus oriented development.
This might seem off-topic, but since the pandemic, everyone and his dog seem to go increasingly nuts on this planet. Everything is blown up far from anything reasonable.

By the way, i also think $90k at this point of the (dead?) cycle isn't bad at all, i mean in terms of bearishness, because those of us who still want to buy more would want nicer buy prices as well. Price, anyways, is what one makes of it. Low is good, high is good. Anything between is noise we have to see (and endure) through.

EDIT: Re-reading this, i'd like to point out that i meant $90k is a relatively high low. I would have expected a lower price by now, but if the cycle is still intact, this looks very bullish to me. So i redact my "in terms of bearisness" to "in terms of bullishness", to make my (bullish) sentiment more clear.

[OutOfMemory]

You can read, no?  
I was asking a simple question.
Possible answers: Yes, No.
Single choice.

Understood?

Like this I will skip on this question. Thanks for the interest though, you can communicate this way with the ETF bot.

So you put out "facts", imply some shit i didn't mean at all by asking my SIMPLE question, and now you skip on it?
That is exactly what the ETF bot is doing all the time.
I'm fine ending the discussion here.

you're on mute ign0re (one-way edition).

EDIT: based on your replies, i guess you're not European.
So how would you know how Europe is like? Because you're getting brainwashed by MSM and fake news on twatter and co.?
Spoiler: You can't know. You believe to know in the same way like you would believe you know how it's on Mars.

[sirazimuth]

How goes it bros?
Just checking in. I ain’t dead yet, lol.
That f**king captcha almost had me, but in this day and age… I get it, it’s necessary.

Go Bitcoin

[OutOfMemory]

How goes it bros?
Just checking in. I ain’t dead yet, lol.
That f**king captcha almost had me, but in this day and age… I get it, it’s necessary.

Go Bitcoin

Hey, old sock  
I saw your merit before your post and thought you might only come by in read-only mode.
Nice to read from you again.
Regarding the captcha, i have a recommendation for you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VrLQXR7mKU

22 minute watch, and i hope, worth it  

EDIT: Coming off a meltdown today, i don't think i'm adding much more of value to this thread tonight, so have a great time, ya'll. Do something you love and don't die. Read yours soon   I need to relax #GN

[ESG]

 For the past 20 years, Antarctica’s ice sheet has been melting rapidly, but since 2021, it has started to grow again.


The melting of Antarctica’s ice sheet has been a major contributor to rising sea levels. Monitoring this vast ice mass is essential, and the GRACE satellite system—along with its successor, GRACE-FO—has been tracking it since 2002. As expected, satellite data showed a steady decline in ice, particularly in the western region and the Antarctic Peninsula. In contrast, glaciers in the east remained relatively stable. Between 2002 and 2010, Antarctica lost an average of 73.79 gigatons of ice per year. From 2011 to 2020, that number nearly doubled to 142.06 gigatons annually

A surprising ice gain from 2021 to 2023


 But recent findings have revealed a surprising twist. Between 2021 and 2023, the Antarctic ice sheet saw a record ice gain of 107.79 gigatons per year, according to a study published in Science China Earth Sciences. This unusual increase is largely attributed to two years of unusually heavy precipitation in the region.


...

https://www.climatedepot.com/2025/05/07/surprise-two-new-studies-find-ice-is-rebounding-at-both-poles-surprising-pause-in-arctic-sea-ice-decline-antarctica-sees-record-breaking-accumulation-of-ice/ =>> Surprise! Two new studies find ice is rebounding at BOTH poles! ‘Surprising pause’ in Arctic sea ice decline & Antarctica sees ‘record-breaking accumulation of ice’

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/antarctica/nasa-satellites-show-antarctica-has-gained-ice-despite-rising-global-temperatures-how-is-that-possible   =>  NASA satellites show Antarctica has gained ice despite rising global temperatures. How is that possible?

#*Poles have always been changing for thousands and thousands of years, and this change, thaws where it was the pole, and freezes in the new position of the poles, so I see

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

https://www.climatedepot.com/2025/05/07/surprise-two-new-studies-find-ice-is-rebounding-at-both-poles-surprising-pause-in-arctic-sea-ice-decline-antarctica-sees-record-breaking-accumulation-of-ice/ =>> Surprise! Two new studies find ice is rebounding at BOTH poles! ‘Surprising pause’ in Arctic sea ice decline & Antarctica sees ‘record-breaking accumulation of ice’

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/antarctica/nasa-satellites-show-antarctica-has-gained-ice-despite-rising-global-temperatures-how-is-that-possible   =>  NASA satellites show Antarctica has gained ice despite rising global temperatures. How is that possible?

"global temperatures" are changing way more in a zone about 120° arounf the equator, because of global sea streams.
Growing of ice does not mean decline in sea levels. If you know how global climate works, you also know that a year of local observation means almost nothing.
At some point maybe the ice "grows" because air humidity rises with temperature and gets liquified (and freezes) the most near the poles. Put extremely simple, of course.
It could well mean acceleration of global warming processes, as do other indicators. And no, a single indicator does not reflect a whole, complex system.

My last 2 cents for today.

[xhomerx10]

How goes it bros?
Just checking in. I ain’t dead yet, lol.
That f**king captcha almost had me, but in this day and age… I get it, it’s necessary.

Go Bitcoin

 Mr Azimuth sir,

 Here is your code.   https://bitcointalk.org/captcha_code.php
May you never have to captcha again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

Just the story for my bitcoin start from day 1 until now

Blind buy, Bitcoin risk, 
Zero knowledge, wild leap in, 
Time's gift: safe haven.

[ESG]

... =>  NASA satellites show Antarctica has gained ice despite rising global temperatures. How is that possible?

"global temperatures" are changing way more in a zone about 120° arounf the equator, because of global sea streams....~... Put extremely simple, of course.
It could well mean acceleration of global warming processes, as do other indicators. And no, a single indicator does not reflect a whole, complex system.

My last 2 cents for today.

 True, if based on short-term indicators, it is a mistake,
looking at a long-term indicator, 500 thousand years,
you can see better, that every hundred thousand years
there are peaks, both in warming,
as well as in the cooling of the temperature.
=>


https://www.saskoer.ca/physicalgeology/chapter/17-4-glaciations-over-earths-history/ =>



17.4 Glaciations over Earth’s History

 We are currently living in the middle of a glacial period, though it is less intense now than it was 20,000 years ago. This is not the only period of glaciation in Earth’s history; there have been many in the distant past (Figure 17.34). In general, however, over the course of Earth’s history the Earth’s surface has been warm and ice-free for longer periods than it has been cold and glaciated.

[xhomerx10]

 For the past 20 years, Antarctica’s ice sheet has been melting rapidly, but since 2021, it has started to grow again.


The melting of Antarctica’s ice sheet has been a major contributor to rising sea levels. Monitoring this vast ice mass is essential, and the GRACE satellite system—along with its successor, GRACE-FO—has been tracking it since 2002. As expected, satellite data showed a steady decline in ice, particularly in the western region and the Antarctic Peninsula. In contrast, glaciers in the east remained relatively stable. Between 2002 and 2010, Antarctica lost an average of 73.79 gigatons of ice per year. From 2011 to 2020, that number nearly doubled to 142.06 gigatons annually

A surprising ice gain from 2021 to 2023


 But recent findings have revealed a surprising twist. Between 2021 and 2023, the Antarctic ice sheet saw a record ice gain of 107.79 gigatons per year, according to a study published in Science China Earth Sciences. This unusual increase is largely attributed to two years of unusually heavy precipitation in the region.


...

https://www.climatedepot.com/2025/05/07/surprise-two-new-studies-find-ice-is-rebounding-at-both-poles-surprising-pause-in-arctic-sea-ice-decline-antarctica-sees-record-breaking-accumulation-of-ice/ =>> Surprise! Two new studies find ice is rebounding at BOTH poles! ‘Surprising pause’ in Arctic sea ice decline & Antarctica sees ‘record-breaking accumulation of ice’

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/antarctica/nasa-satellites-show-antarctica-has-gained-ice-despite-rising-global-temperatures-how-is-that-possible   =>  NASA satellites show Antarctica has gained ice despite rising global temperatures. How is that possible?

#*Poles have always been changing for thousands and thousands of years, and this change, thaws where it was the pole, and freezes in the new position of the poles, so I see

 Probably just a dead cat bounce.  We were never going to be here for a long time... just a good time.

[xhomerx10]

Just the story for my bitcoin start from day 1 until now

Blind buy, Bitcoin risk, 
Zero knowledge, wild leap in, 
Time's gift: safe haven.

 That's next level.   Should we also expect them in Japanese from you soon Mr. El duderino_?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

How goes it bros?
Just checking in. I ain’t dead yet, lol.
That f**king captcha almost had me, but in this day and age… I get it, it’s necessary.

Go Bitcoin

 Mr Azimuth sir,

 Here is your code.   https://bitcointalk.org/captcha_code.php
May you never have to captcha again.

Very kind of you my good friend. Thank you.

[JayJuanGee]

It will become very clear whether the cycle theory is dead. If it is that will give us interesting and new perspectives of everything.

I thought that in my earlier post that I was actually attempting to suggest that cycle theory is dead and alive at the same time.. or maybe that the existence of cycle theory is not black and white in terms of the extent to which it continues to have any influence even if it might not retain its earlier seeming dominant influential status.

In other words, there could be a bit of error in attempting to suggest importance in regards to the extent that cycle theory is alive, dead or in some other status. or the extent to which cycle theory might end up losing its dominance in light of current/future bitcoin price dynamics.

Regarding your "this time is different" assessment of the manipulation.  There has to be some difference because the players and the tools are ongoingly changing, yet I doubt that all frameworks for looking at prices and/or price dynamics are losing their importance.  In other words, large players have frequently tried to control the BTC price for as long as they can, including keeping it down as much as they can and for as long as they can.  The extent to their success (or lack thereof) might give us some signs, even though many times, the manipulation is likely intended to contribute to the loss of confidence to inspire coin holders to release their coins.

Importance is very subjective. What I meant here that if the theory is really dead, we will interesting new stuff not that it is important in the ultimate scheme of things.

What else is new?

Surely there are some of us who might overly rely upon certain kinds of metrics or certain kinds of models or certain commentators in order to assess what we think the price of bitcoin is going to do in the short, medium and/or long term to the extent that any of those matter in regards to whether we are going to act and/or change our behaviors.

In late 2021 and early 2022, I had given some of my then assessments of the probabilities where the BTC prices might go including up and down and various price range potentials.  Each of those were snapshot view attempts to at best capture my subjective assessment at the time that I was typing eahc of the post.  So I have various pieces of information that influence my assessments at any given time, and even my behaviors are likely not to change very much, even if some aspects of my assessment change, except if some core motivating factor were to potentially strengthen or weaken my bitcoin investment thesis which is biased towards long term HODL.

There surely are some guys who might not feel that they are capable of making any kind of detailed assessment in regards to how they consider probabilities, so they may well end up getting influenced into changing their views more easily, whether they rely on cycle theory or some other indicators and/or person's that might help to inform them how to think on the topic of whether the BTC price might be going up, down or sideways within the timeline that they consider to be relevant for their acting or not acting on the information.

In recent time many people have been obsessed with this theory regardless if they are bullish or bearish people. That is pretty uninteresting, I would like some new perspectives on the market. They will come faster if the theory is confirmed to be dead, so a bullish 2026 would do it.
 

In the last few years (and even quite recently), I have been quite hostile towards members who were poo-pooing cycle theory and coming up with their own bullshit frameworks, when cycle theory was one of the strongest ways of thinking about bitcoin price dynamics, whether short, medium or longer term.

So yeah, I had not been too accepting of guys just making up various bullshit models and acting like cycle theory did not exist.

So in that regard, there have always been varying weights given to cycle theory whether the theory was subliminal in the ways that bitcoin price dynamics was being viewed or more directly incorporated into aspects of models (such as stock to flow has had a quite a bit of emphasis on cycle theory, even though I had not seen anything from PlanB in recent times).

Even if 2026 ends up being bullish, that does not mean that cycle theory is over, since some guys (including yours truly, perhaps, I am not ruling anything out for my lil selfie) might just proclaim that the cycle had merely been extended and the 2025 / 2026 period merely represented some other variation of a double top like we had double tops in 2013 and also in 2021, yet those double tops merely played out within a calendar year when our current potential double top situation could just end up dragging out for two calendar years.

In other words, not everyone is giving up on some of the ongoing dynamics of bitcoin prices that might be merely attempted to be manipulated by the new and the BIGGER players, yet bitcoin still might end up having to regress to the mean in terms of what it was going to do but was prevented from doing based on BIGGER players attempting to manipulate it so much into a desire to create appearances that the cycle no longer exists, when in fact the cycle is just still underneath.. we just have to allow it to play out (carve it out of the stone that is still there, and there happens to be an angel (or a cycle) contained within the stone).

Price hovering around 90,000 USD which considering sentiment in the space is fairly neutral is actually quite bullish. I mean 90,000 USD would have been a dream 5 or 6 years ago. We have come a long way but the price could be so much higher & with time, it will be. Spot ETFs were not approved long ago, institutional involvement will soar over the next years. Boomers will add Bitcoin to retirement plans. Mature investors don’t have weak hands so those coins will continue to be swept up & stay off the market.

Saylor will continue to take a huge amount of coins off the market. We are at the very beginning of what I believe is the maturation of Bitcoin. It is entering true mainstream now, price will follow & I will be surprised if we don’t breach 1M USD by 2040. I am looking at 250,000 USD by 2030. We just need to keep buying, there could be a certain amount of institutional suppression going on to keep prices low whilst they accumulate but that will stop. When their bags are full, they will let it go. Look at precious metals, investors moaned for years and now they are flying. Be patient, Bitcoin is going to the moon.

I see $250k by 2030 as somewhat bearish, I think we're going to reach it sooner.

But even so, I'm fine with your predictions. Even now, $90k is a dream come true to many of us entering @ $200 a coin, so, yes, a win-win in my book. Looking fwd to the future!

For sure, bitcoin seems to be in quite a great place that would have had been difficult to imagine, even as recently as early to mid 2023.   Not that I give too many shits about the various financialization activities around bitcoin, the financialization of bitcoin (including the entrance of Blackrock towards getting excited about bitcoin and pushing other "TradFi" entities towards excitement about bitcoin) seems like it was going to take way longer to really drag a lot of the TradFi forces towards some forms of friendliness towards bitcoin - even though their paperization is a bit of double-edged sword in regards top the trap and and attack on bitcoin angle that seems to simultaneously exist with those various products and what they seem to be pushing (or trying to push).