Still, all that said I would be actually concerned if we did not see a decent upward movement...
Are you getting another "ting-a-lie"?
Should "we" start running now?
So now what? Well it's warmed up across the US, but it is still winter... and the price is ... well famously un-predictable (cue OgN)...
If I told you that we would hit bottom near the end of Q3 this year and peak with Bitcoin's all time high for the next cycle in Q3 of 2029,
would you call me crazy or get crazy rich with me?You may have had a few lucky trades in your attempts to make up for your screw ups between mid-2011 and 2013, so in that regard, I doubt that you have gotten richer than similarly situated guys who errored on the side of buy and HODL.
By the way, I consider a mostly buy and HODL strategy to not preclude from selling - it is just that any sales of the BTC stash would tend to not be large in size.. They would be mostly intended for making various purchases, whether a car, construction a house or something like that.. So in essence, making the sales would be intended for buying back at cheaper prices... even if from time to time, there may have ended up playing out some of those buying back at cheaper prices situations.
House smells great all night long as it cooks.
The Mas are in pretty good shape then. You might get a whole line of WO bros lining up with Ramen bowls in order to at least partake in the juices.
So now what? Well it's warmed up across the US, but it is still winter... and the price is ... well famously un-predictable (cue OgN)...
If I told you that we would hit bottom near the end of Q3 this year and peak with Bitcoin's all time high for the next cycle in Q3 of 2029, would you call me crazy or get crazy rich with me?
Prob neither. I do not have enough sats to trade with to really make it matter one way or the other.
You (cAPSLOCK) must not have at least 0.63 BTC then.
There are some guys who are really crushing it with a stash of a mere 0.21 BTC.
I do frequently mention entry-level fuck you status to be a yearly
income of $80k, yet right now, that is going to take 13.7819 BTC,. which seems a lot more reasonable (lower quantity) than what was required just a couple of years ago.
In February 2024, it would have had taken 25.984 BTC to start out with an $80k per year income - not quite double but pretty close. Of course, $80k per year is not worth as much in February 2026 as it was in 2024, which is part of the rationale to allow for a 7% per year increase in the dollar withdrawal rate each year.
If I told you that we would hit bottom near the end of Q3 this year and peak with Bitcoin's all time high for the next cycle in Q3 of 2029, would you call me crazy or get crazy rich with me?
Bitcoin is trading at about the same level as in Nov 2021, more than 4 years ago.
What crazy riches are you talking about?
The two ways to get rich off of bitcoin was buying in 2010-2015 and holding for about 10 years, give or take.
OR, being already rich when you bought it.
The trading would NEVER give you that, unless you were DCAing steadily.
A regular person would either sell or buy at a wrong time when they try to trade.
One of the BIGGEST problems in attempting to trade bitcoin is that guys have to catch the 10-ish most profitable days of the year in order to really make meaningful profits in bitcoin, which means that many times traders will end up not being "in" when they should have had been "in.".. so they think that they are all smart, yet if they were not coincidentally "in" bitcoin on those 10-ish most profitable days, they end up fucking away all of their profits. Another way of putting it is that they frequently sell too much too soon..
It really becomes difficult for guys who had been in bitcoin more than 10-ish years to have not have had done quite well with a strategy that emphasized buying and holding rather than trading.. and surely guys who had accumulated most of their coins before the 2013 run would have had been on a higher level as compared to guys who did most of their accumulation before the 2017 run.. yet both of them are better than guys who got in before the 2021 run or those who got in before the 2024 run (see what i did there?)...
Look at MSTR-they started buying at 10K and now with 69K they are UNDERWATER (because they DCAed irregularly).
MSTR is a different situation since they are using other people's money to buy bitcoin, so other people tend to be inclined to want to give them money when the BTC prices are going up rather than at any other time in the market. Who knows how all this will work out for MSTR, yet they own a whole hell of a lot of BTC pretty much free and clear - mostly by using other people's money.
Additionally, expecting a certain asset behavior in the future is very uncommon...bitcoin would not be an exception aka cycles would disappear in the future if not already.
Some cycle parameters already became irregular, which is a first step in the outright cycle collapse, which is upcoming, imho.
I am not going to argue with you in regards to the existence of a multitude of forces besides just cycle that are contributing to current and expected future price dynamics.
Bitcoin is trading at about the same level as in Nov 2021, more than 4 years ago.
What crazy riches are you talking about?
BTC did a x20 in less than 3 years from late 2018 to late 2021 and a x8 in 2.5 years from late 2022 to mid 2025.
That’s a x160 in under 7 years. It would’ve taken just over $6K to be a millionaire today if you started in January of 2019.
Maybe listen to what I’m saying instead of constantly criticizing me if you haven’t made any money in the last 4 years.
Why don't you look at yourself instead of trying to proclaim that other guys should have had gotten rich.
You had the pre 2013 period and also the pre-2017 period.. but you want to ignore those because you fucked up, even though you are bragging about yourself being a professional bitcoin consultant for the past 15 years.. yet you likely had around 6 years of screw ups if we might imagine that you improved after that, yet I have my doubts that you actually improved in recent times. You just spout about your supposed winning even though you are in the middle of a trade in which you are not in bitcoin, you going to buy back? or you are waiting for 2-ish years before you buy back?
Trading is not a good idea.. even if guys try to wave it around as if it were easy peasy, when buying and holding tend to be the better play.. .and don't depend, as much, on luck.
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