Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

‎Check out this TikTok I found!  https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSQeBW8Xa/
WTF 🤬 😱😤🤦🤦‍♂️🤬🤦‍♀️🤬
OT but what the hell is wrong with the word?

What makes you think anyone that frequents this thread would create a fucking ticktock account?

I clicked on the tiktok link, and yeah, it required a "log in," and yeah, I don't have a tiktok account nor any plan to create one.  Yet.

Ahh my bad I thought you can watch TikTok without login.

Here’s Twitter link
https://x.com/FFS_WhatNow/status/2060454984915800146/video/1?s=46

giving these people our time/attention is exactly why they exist

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Lucius]

I am concerned that Bitcoin has failed to meet some of its promises (for political, not functional reasons) which sadly, may validate some of your worst concerns. If it actually was peer-to-peer electronic cash, it may have got a boost from this AI craze. However, none other has superseded it so perhaps not.

Sorry that I repeat myself,

but  BTC has been fucked with since the derivatives were created. Most of the people here remember BTC's explosive upside potential that existed until (actually exactly the same day) the derivatives appeared.

They said they'll tame it and they did. They have been pressing BTC in the same frame as any other asset they control.

I wouldn't be surprised if the "digital gold" narrative instead of p2p cash has been pushed by the same people all along...

I think you are not far from the truth - because Bitcoin, as the idea of ​​a decentralized digital cryptocurrency, has been the target of various "agencies" and interest groups from the beginning. What was published by the most famous whistleblower (ES) clearly shows that the most powerful US agencies have seriously devoted themselves (and are probably still engaged today) to creating tools that will be able to efficiently analyze Bitcoin (blockchain) with the aim of determining the identity of those who make transactions on it.

Whether it was just the first step towards somehow bringing Bitcoin under control is perhaps less important, because today the mainstream media mostly write about BTC as digital gold, and powerful companies show how huge money can be made from it. If the average Joe ever believed that a decentralized payment system could exist, today that idea is fading.

However, I think that too much attention is paid to the price, which, regardless of the current value, is still so high that it has exceeded the expectations of at least 90% of people who have ever heard of Bitcoin in the past ten years.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Wall Observer Digest - 2026-06-05 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-06-05 09:13 AM CT

Bitcoin is sitting at $60,759 on Friday after losing another 5% in a day that felt like it was just catching up to what happened over the past month - down nearly 25% from its 30-day average of $75,742. The Fear & Greed Index is at 12 and has been deteriorating for seven straight days, which means most people are already bracing for worse.

The derivatives market isn't panicking - open interest sits modestly at $3.49M with funding still slightly positive at +0.36% annualized, suggesting the worst of the leveraged deleveraging may be behind us. What to watch next is whether long-term holders actually start buying into this Crosby Ratio reading or if price finds another floor closer to realized value.

PRICE ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $60,759.00 USD (-5.08% 24h change).
Bitcoin has been drifting sideways through June rather than collapsing outright - it's lost its directional momentum but hasn't broken down, which feels like a market digesting the corporate treasury selloff. The $60k level is being tested with some conviction: three-day standard deviation of roughly $1,413 means we're seeing normal volatility for this move, not an outlier event. What's interesting underneath is that short-term traders and leveraged positions got cleared out while long-term holders held their ground according to value days destroyed data - the kind of distribution pattern you see at bottoms rather than tops. The Crosby Ratio Z-score has dipped to -1.7, a reading only matched four times in over a decade including major bear market lows, and both SOPR and Mayer Multiple are simultaneously flashing bottom-fifth-percentile readings.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

Corporate Treasury Unwind: MicroStrategy sits on $11 billion in unrealized losses as FASB fair-value accounting rules force paper losses through net income, creating a reflexive cycle where falling Bitcoin prices compress equity premiums and push companies that were accumulating to start selling just to survive.
ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Trimming: Spot ETFs pulled out $2.3 billion last month - their largest monthly redemption of 2026 - suggesting institutions are quietly reducing exposure even as the long-term bull case remains intact with fixed supply dynamics still in play.
Generational Indicator Readings: Five independent signals including a Crosby Ratio Z-score of -1.7 and weekly RSI flashing levels not seen since major bear market bottoms, which is meaningful confluence rather than coincidence according to analysts buying their own money into the setup.
Short-Term Leverage Cleared Out: The selling that drove Bitcoin through $70k was primarily short-term traders and leveraged positions getting liquidated while long-term holders held steady on value days destroyed data, leaving price with potential support near realized price.

TOP STORIES

1. The Corporate Bitcoin Treasury Model May Be Broken
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-crash-just-wiped-62-092912084.html
Published: 2026-06-05 05:29 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin fell roughly half its peak by June 2026, and public companies holding BTC as treasury assets lost $62 billion in combined market cap. MicroStrategy sits on the biggest hole-843,706 coins bought at an average of about $75,600 each, now carrying over $11 billion in unrealized losses when Bitcoin trades near $60,000. The real problem isn't just that prices dropped; it's what happens next under updated FASB fair-value accounting rules. Those paper losses flow straight through net income and wreck quarterly EPS for a company whose entire thesis is buying more BTC forever. Michael Burry calls the dynamic a reflexive unwind: falling Bitcoin compresses equity premiums, closes the issuance window, and forces companies that were accumulating to start selling just to survive.

2. Bitcoin Traders See Sideways Action in June
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/prediction-markets-see-little-chance-095400613.html
Published: 2026-06-05 05:54 AM CT
Summary: Polymarket traders have placed their bets on Bitcoin staying put through the rest of June, with $65,000 commanding a 76% probability as the most likely outcome. The current price sits around $63,000 and has lost its directional momentum - not collapsing, just drifting sideways like cattle in dry weather. A break above $100,000 before month's end is priced at less than one percent, which feels about right given that the market hasn't shown much enthusiasm for it lately. Bitcoin spot ETFs pulled out $2.3 billion last month, their biggest monthly redemption of 2026, suggesting institutions are quietly trimming exposure even as prices have held relatively firm. The long-term bull case remains intact with institutional adoption and fixed supply dynamics still in play, but June looks like a holding pattern rather than the start of anything dramatic.

3. Five indicators flash generational lows as Bitcoin pulls back from $80k
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/5th-worst-bitcoin-price-action-ever-im-buying-at-99-8-probability
Published: 2026-06-05
Summary: Matt Crosby of Bitcoin Magazine Pro says five independent signals are flashing at levels not seen since major bear market bottoms, and he's buying with his own money rather than just writing about it. The Crosby Ratio Z-score has dipped to -1.7 - a reading only matched four times in over a decade: the 2018 low, March 2020 crash, first break below $20k in late 2022, and last month's drop toward $60k. Weekly RSI is flashing similar readings on its own terms, which Crosby calls meaningful confluence rather than coincidence. The selling that drove Bitcoin through the $70k zone has been short-term traders and leveraged positions getting cleared out; long-term holders have largely held their ground according to value days destroyed data. Price could still fall toward realized price as next support, but with both SOPR and Mayer Multiple simultaneously in bottom fifth percentile - a combination that's only happened a handful of times historically - Crosby argues the odds favor accumulation over waiting for marginally better prices.

[ESG]

Time to go to the bathroom!

##hey Phil, when you fixed your two toilets, are you sure it didn't leak anything at all?

[philipma1957]

@Phil & all:

Cycle theory is not a belief system. I personally don't want it to exist. I hate it. But it's not up to me. It's the code. It's the Halvings. That's what's causing it.

We can argue all we want about whether it's good or bad for Bitcoin and how we all hate it and don't want it to exist.

No one is causing cycles to exist. In the words of Whitney Houston (again!): "They just do!"

Cycle for price is false cycle for mining is real

But if enough people fall for price cycle and a hand full of rich push it down their throats I looks real.


If you truly believe in price cycle a a valid thing you and all like you will likely be the reason btc will die.

Repeat btc will die if 4 year price cycle  continues.

It becomes a non-valid false asset . That can be yo--yo by morons like Saylor.

If he sell 32 coins and drops price from 73k to 60k.

He could sell 10,000 drop the price to 50k . Btc is a simple
pump and dump pos coin if the 4 year price cycle does not end.

BTW 49k to 52k will come due to cycles and yo yo players.

If you think it is bad now wait til Trump and maga leave. The left will attack btc because they hate Trump.

And btc did not get too big to fail.

All because of cycle belief.

And insisting that price is link to 1/2 instead.

Worst even here on w.o.

People insist on cycle for  price

[Richy_T]

I think I could do with some good solid sideways for a while.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

I think I could do with some good solid sideways for a while.

Yeah flat sound good.

 I did not think we would double bottom and worse yet I still think we will not double bottom.

Sounds crazy, but if we drop to 49k then we did not have a double bottom.

[El duderino_]

@Phil & all:

Cycle theory is not a belief system. I personally don't want it to exist. I hate it. But it's not up to me. It's the code. It's the Halvings. That's what's causing it.

We can argue all we want about whether it's good or bad for Bitcoin and how we all hate it and don't want it to exist.

No one is causing cycles to exist. In the words of Whitney Houston (again!): "They just do!"

At one point we have to belief its not different this time. (in the great lines, maybe little bit off we shall see)

though I hope things like the clarity act and let us hope war ending etc would send us up sooner then later.

[El duderino_]

I think I could do with some good solid sideways for a while.

Its not can or not... what ever happens is with what we need to live, cant change anything ... only follow the waves

[cAPSLOCK]

Bitcoin really is dead this time, isn't it?

@Bobclawblaw is Bitcoin dead?

[Biodom]

<snip>has lost its directional momentum - not collapsing, just drifting sideways like cattle in dry weather. <snip>

Is this something BobC picked up from Bob's WO (or elsewhere) writings, I wonder.
It sounds very specific.

[Bitcoin_Budha]

Bitcoin really is dead this time, isn't it?

@Bobclawblaw is Bitcoin dead?

@Bobclawblaw trying to keep Bitcoin alive with a ventilator machine.

Give him some time to reply.

[philipma1957]

I think I could do with some good solid sideways for a while.

Its not can or not... what ever happens is with what we need to live, cant change anything ... only follow the waves

@Phil & all:

Cycle theory is not a belief system. I personally don't want it to exist. I hate it. But it's not up to me. It's the code. It's the Halvings. That's what's causing it.

We can argue all we want about whether it's good or bad for Bitcoin and how we all hate it and don't want it to exist.

No one is causing cycles to exist. In the words of Whitney Houston (again!): "They just do!"

At one point we have to belief its not different this time. (in the great lines, maybe little bit off we shall see)

though I hope things like the clarity act and let us hope war ending etc would send us up sooner then later.

words of wisdom from the dude.


I think I will sign off and go to the beach with my wife today.

Belmar here I come.

[shahzadafzal]

So how are the privacy coins doing lately? Just asking for a friend.

[philipma1957]

So how are the privacy coins doing lately? Just asking for a friend.

not sure grin was under 3 cents last I looked.



and some news that looks bad


https://www.yahoo.com/news/science/article/nasa-astronauts-aboard-international-space-station-ordered-to-shelter-in-dragon-spacecraft-amid-worsening-air-leaks-151226804.html


"NASA astronauts aboard International Space Station ordered to shelter in Dragon spacecraft amid worsening air leaks..."


I read it and not sure why it is leaking.

[cAPSLOCK]

@Phil & all:

Cycle theory is not a belief system. I personally don't want it to exist. I hate it. But it's not up to me. It's the code. It's the Halvings. That's what's causing it.

We can argue all we want about whether it's good or bad for Bitcoin and how we all hate it and don't want it to exist.

No one is causing cycles to exist. In the words of Whitney Houston (again!): "They just do!"

At one point we have to belief its not different this time. (in the great lines, maybe little bit off we shall see)

though I hope things like the clarity act and let us hope war ending etc would send us up sooner then later.

I've been getting a kick out of the fact that we are hoping for clarity to be passed even though it's probably a giant trash can full of horrible things.  I personally am hoping for it with all my heart because selfishly I know if it gets thrown down again that's going to be a bad speed bump for an already faltering price.

This ends up being the psychology part of markets. What humans believe is more important than anything else.  Because we are the market.

But I don't believe the base value of Bitcoin has changed one bit.  Not yet.  

And yes, the powers can whip the price around by manipulating it through derivatives.  And I have hoped for years now that when this time came, we could bypass the necessary bloodbath that would have to occur for people to see that truly, if you don't hold the keys, you don't have sovereignty.

But it's beginning to look like the bypass ramp to that is closed.  We may just have to see something like a derivative based Bitcoin company imploding or Coinbase being robbed.

But none of it changes the actual real Bitcoin use case and value.

And I can see, even here in this thread recently, the narrative that Bitcoin has failed because it is not P2P cash (yet) is as strong as ever.

I still don't think this is a real problem.  From the very beginning, it was clearly known that Bitcoin could not scale to serve every human making transactions on the base chain.

<insert Hal Finney quote that I like>

Layered systems are being built, whether we like them or not.

One of them is a system in which you buy a digital "piece of paper" issued by BlackRock that represents Bitcoin ( if they are following the law) they're holding for you.  

Then there are many kinds of sometimes convoluted protocols that allow people to trade synthetic Bitcoin locked in smart contracts with the trades being denominated on a record outside of Bitcoin's blockchain.

And then there are even altcoins, which are most likely not going to all die. There will be some of them that last because they have real purpose (some of which are arguably diabolical). And some of them may even have the real purpose of offloading some of Bitcoin's transactional duties yet another way.

Until it is no longer possible for enemies to transact on chain without regards to borders or jurisdictions or anything else bitcoin is still doing the most important thing it was designed to do.

And it doesn't matter that they can whip the price around. The basis for the value of the asset has not changed.  And the powers that be are playing with fire as they try whatever strategies they're trying.

The real bad news is that people who are going to get burned probably aren't those powers.  Because as magnificent a job as Bitcoin does its solving important problems, it certainly doesn't solve human nature or the fact that the system we live in is completely and totally rigged.

Anyway, Bitcoin is dead. Long live Bitcoin.

[Biodom]

@Phil & all:

Cycle theory is not a belief system. I personally don't want it to exist. I hate it. But it's not up to me. It's the code. It's the Halvings. That's what's causing it.

We can argue all we want about whether it's good or bad for Bitcoin and how we all hate it and don't want it to exist.

No one is causing cycles to exist. In the words of Whitney Houston (again!): "They just do!"

I think that you conflate bitcoin issuance with bitcoin price.

Yes, bitcoin issuance is halving each four years, roughly, but at this point the size of daily issuance is minuscule in comparison with daily trading volume or money flows in and out.
Bitcoin investment flows are not in the code, and it is erroneous to assume that they are, in perpetuity.

That said, I grant you that halvings were important for flows at some point, but as of now, they are just not a factor as bitcoin miners produce just 450btc/day rn or $28 mil/day vs 50bil daily trade or 0.056%.
To me, 0.056% of something flowing ought not to have a directional effect on where the flow is going.

TL;DR Yes, cycle theory is currently a belief system, no doubt about it, based on the evidence above.

Focusing strictly on that 0.056% miner stat treats all Bitcoin as liquid. It is not about physics of new supply. It is about the velocity of existing supply.

The halving is not a supply decrease of new coins. It is a psychological trigger that completely dries up the available floating supply on exchanges. You dont need a massive change in miner issuance to cause a supply squeeze, you just need structural demand hitting order books that are already structurally thin.

Only, it didn't last time...one guy got scared of the "moon shadow" and liquidated 80000 btc at once (177 day supply)...some liquidity freeze.
Additionally, claiming that it is "psychological" is the exact opposite of "it is in the code".
I conclude that people have very diverse explanation re cycles...and the only "thing" they (cyclists) agree on is, apparently, is that  "it has to go down 70-80% each time".
All other typical "cycle" parameters has been already violated.

Here is the list:
1. No ATH before the halving (violated in 2024).
2. No violation of the cycle high of the cycle before (done in 2022).
3. No 200 week sma violation (done for a relatively long stretch in 20220
4. A significant cycle price extension (only 83% increase from 2021 to 2026 highs).

PlanB was already proven wrong...now the price is "working" on the powerlaw trend.
I would very much like at least that one to hold, because if it doesn't, the bitcoin investment thesis would become quite complicated to say the least.