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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 41 (39.4%)
No - we need to sweep the low again - 23 (22.1%)
No - we need to set a new low first - 25 (24%)
No - other (explain below) - 15 (14.4%)
Total Voters: 104

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 27052330 times)
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Today at 02:05:55 AM

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-09-21 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-09-21 09:05 PM CT

Bitcoin surged 5.68% over the last 24 hours, breaking through resistance as short liquidations and easing macro pressures drove the rally. The Fear & Greed Index jumped to 78, signaling Extreme Greed as the asset reclaimed its position above the 30-day moving average.

Outlook: Traders should monitor whether the Federal Reserve's delayed easing timeline continues to support the dollar, potentially capping further upside. Sustained ETF inflows will be critical to maintaining momentum, as recent positive flows have helped push holders back into profit.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $85,609.00, up 5.68% over 24 hours and up 13.2% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads +28 on a -50 to +50 scale. Buyers currently dominate the tape, pushing sentiment into Extreme Greed while price tests the upper boundary of the recent range. This momentum suggests that short-term traders are aggressively chasing the breakout, leaving little room for immediate pullbacks without significant friction. The market sits precariously between the $79,500 support floor and the $91,500 resistance ceiling, with the current price hovering closer to the latter. A decisive break above $91,500 would confirm trend continuation, whereas a failure to hold $79,500 would signal that the recent rally was merely a liquidity grab. Traders should watch for volume divergence at these key levels to determine whether the current enthusiasm is sustainable or fragile.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $79,500 (32%): triggers: Price remains between $79,500 and $91,500 through Friday, with daily closes avoiding a breach of the lower support. Invalidation: A daily close below $79,500 or above $91,500 through Friday.
- Breakout Toward $97,000 (56%): triggers: A daily close above $91,500 through Friday, confirming a breakout from the current range. Invalidation: Price fails to sustain levels above $91,500 and closes below $85,000 through Friday.
- Downside Re-test of $74,000 (12%): triggers: A daily close below $79,500 through Friday, indicating a loss of support and potential acceleration toward $74,000. Invalidation: Price recovers and closes above $85,000 through Friday.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Macro Liquidity Conditions: The Federal Reserve's removal of expected easing through 2027 from the dot plot supports the dollar and may delay the liquidity conditions Bitcoin typically responds to, creating a headwind for sustained rallies.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin Surges to $85,111 as Short Liquidations and Macro Easing Drive Rally
URL: https://decrypt.co/378729/bitcoin-tops-85k-as-648m-in-crypto-shorts-liquidated
Published: 2026-09-21 07:22 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin climbed to a high of $85,111 on Monday, marking a 5.7% gain over 24 hours as it broke through a resistance band it had tested for a week. The price movement coincided with the liquidation of $648 million in crypto short positions, with over $230 million of Bitcoin shorts wiped out in a single session as the asset recovered above $80,000. External pressures eased as Brent crude hit a half-month low and the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 5%, while spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $592 million over Thursday and Friday, ending the week $6.2 million ahead. Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev noted that wallets which had sold steadily through August turned into net buyers by month's end, adding to their positions at the fastest single-day pace in weeks by September 20. Despite the rally, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill warned that the Federal Reserve's removal of expected easing through 2027 from the dot plot supports the dollar and delays the liquidity conditions Bitcoin typically responds to.

2. Bitcoin ETF Holders Return to Profit as Price Nears $87,000
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/bitcoin-etf-holders-back-in-profit
Published: 2026-09-21 03:32 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin ETF holders are back in profit for the first time since January, with the average investor now above the estimated cost basis of $81,720. The cryptocurrency traded near $86,772 on Monday, despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and the Clarity Act being blocked in Congress. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs managed by firms like BlackRock and Fidelity saw net positive flows of over $6 million last week, with nearly $593 million in inflows on Thursday and Friday. These funds currently manage $98.8 billion in assets, offering investors a way to gain exposure without managing private keys. The current price remains over 30% below the all-time high of $126,080 reached last year.

3. FutureBit Demonstrates Bitcoin Mining via Simulated Fruit Fly Brain
URL: https://decrypt.co/378836/fruit-fly-brain-mine-bitcoin-these-companies-testing
Published: 2026-09-21 12:46 PM CT
Summary: FutureBit demonstrated HashFly, a browser-based experiment that uses 2,914 simulated neural traces from a fruit fly brain to perform simplified Bitcoin hashing. The company claims that if this biological model were scaled to real organic neurons, it could achieve approximately 1 watt per terahash, which is roughly 10 times more efficient than leading 3-nanometer ASIC miners. However, the current simulation runs on conventional hardware and operates at a fraction of Bitcoin's network difficulty, making it non-competitive with standard mining rigs like FutureBit's own Apollo III ASIC. A separate project called FlyMiner uses a digital map of 139,255 fruit fly neurons to control a standard mining program, triggering hashing attempts when specific neural signals reach a threshold. These experiments follow previous unconventional mining attempts, such as a 1989 Nintendo Game Boy miner and landfill methane-powered facilities, but remain largely theoretical or low-output curiosities.

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Today at 02:14:41 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Wen 127k i want to open the Elijah Craig bottle.

We have to wait for the next 4 year cycle. LOL

oh October 2026 starts the new cycle cool.
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Today at 02:53:51 AM

Wen 127k i want to open the Elijah Craig bottle.

We have to wait for the next 4 year cycle. LOL

oh October 2026 starts the new cycle cool.

I do love the optimism.  Personally, I would be less mocking of the 4-year cycle when we are down 35% from the highs, especially in a time period the stock market is up more than 25%, but it is still a great opportunity for DCA.  Maybe not in the short term since we are now overbought, but historically speaking if you are buying 3 weeks from now and sell in the summer of 2029, you would do pretty well.  I don't think that will change.
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Today at 02:59:41 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Wen 127k i want to open the Elijah Craig bottle.

We have to wait for the next 4 year cycle. LOL

oh October 2026 starts the new cycle cool.

I do love the optimism.  Personally, I would be less mocking of the 4-year cycle when we are down 35% from the highs, especially in a time period the stock market is up more than 25%, but it is still a great opportunity for DCA.  Maybe not in the short term since we are now overbought, but historically speaking if you are buying 3 weeks from now and sell in the summer of 2029, you would do pretty well.  I don't think that will change.

Well it only hurts i your a tard that didn't set yourself up when you had the chance and still has to work.
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Today at 03:26:26 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

If we do get a new ath this year and kill off the 4 year price cycle do we finally get to shut the mouths of the the degenerate 4 year people.

I do not have hatred of them or contempt of them but I do want them to shut the fuck up preaching about it.
[@ OG HERE IS HOPING YOU PUT THE 4 YEAR price CYCLE TO BED]

I hate to proclaim it, but some variation of the 4-year cycle continues to exist in bitcoin, even though certain folks may well misread it or overly interpret it or proclaim to have had "gotten lucky" (really proclaiming their supposed "skillz") by supposedly trading on it.

80.8k to 86.4k is a decent move up.
but I would love to see 101k "soon"

and 127k by Nov 1

Never enough for uie-pooie, right?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Somehow the current movements are similar to what we saw 3.5 years ago (at March 2023), not 4 years ago.
well if correct we hit a new high around March of 2027 long before the Halving.
and the 4 year cycle will be vanquished.

or shortened quite a bit.
at the moment this gives my mine some breathing room.

2300 for power vs 3175 usd in coin
want more though much more.

But Philipma Cramer 1957 sold around 30% to 50% of his BTC stash in around late July-ish or something like that.. I cannot recall the exact quantity of your BTC stash that you sold in another one of those (what not to do scenarios), but it was very close to cycle bottom BTC prices..  

I recall that it was something like our late July correction or something like that. ..  At this moment, I cannot recall exactly what was the "world's going to end" situation that caused such panic (oh yeah (edit) now I recall, it was the ColdCard Hackening - random number generator event)., but Phil Cramer was not the ONLY panicker at that time?  some dumb (largely non-eventful) shit that caused uie-pooie (Phil) to panic like a little school girl, similar to your late-ish 2022 bitcoin portfolio management behaviors (that you had argued more vociferously in 2022 as compared with this time around (panic sell), even though both incidents were likely similarly damaging to your finances).

80.8k to 86.4k is a decent move up.
but I would love to see 101k "soon"

and 127k by Nov 1
No question those 4 year price cycle degenerates are finally beginning to see

"that times they are a changing"
I don't see why there's so much anger towards people who have a different opinion about whether this cycle still exists or was interrupted when we had an ATH before the halving thanks to the approval of spot BTC ETFs. Circumstances have definitely changed, although many people still believe that there is a pattern they need to follow if they want to profit from investing in Bitcoin.

When you talk about "profiting from investing in Bitcoin" you seem to be talking about trading and not investing, since there is hardly any need to become preoccupied by BTC price movements when investing, especially for normal guys who might not have lump sums to invest into bitcoin.  Surely the overwhelming majority of world normies are reluctant to lump sum invest into bitcoin, so there tends to be more common practices related to establishing a position over time, and sure, I am not going to proclaim to know what everyone does, even though surely DCA practices that might play out over 4-10 years or more are not necessarily advantaged when there is very much focus on what bitcoin's price may or may not do, so any time that newbies get into bitcoin, the better (if not the best) way to get a stake in bitcoin and to actually prepare for the possibility of UP is to buy bitcoin on a regular, consistent and persistent basis rather than waiting for BTC price movement (such as going down in price) that may or may not end up happening.

If we look at the news today, what can we say about the $300 million short liquidation except that there are a lot of people who are clearly betting on the wrong outcome. Unfortunately for them, such news obviously helps the price of BTC to go up.

I cannot argue with you regarding this kind of dynamic, since there have been so many times in history that the BTC price goes up, and then shorts are placed, yet the BTC price keeps going up, and the liquidation of shorts can continue to happen for quite extensive amounts of time, which surely many of us regular bitcoiner bag HODLers have gotten many pleasures during those kinds of times, when they occur (which surely is not as frequently as many of us would like to see - even though surely it is good to be in or almost "all in" during those kinds of UPPity times, when they do end up happening).

Another bullish moment
Do you still need to doubt the resilience of Bitcoin Huh

I trust Bitcoin more than I trust my wife
I said what I said 💯
But I trust both. I trust Bitcoin with my money, and I trust my wife as my life partner. You also have to understand that no one can be a complete substitute for someone else.

What truly matters is knowing who to trust with what.
Bitcoin is my wealth, and my wife is my life.

What a mushy sop you are showing ur lil selfie to be!!!!

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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Today at 05:32:06 AM

we the people of the world  need hope not 4 year price cycles

Oh gawd...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Since when did bitcoin give any shits about what "we the people of the world" want?

I will admit that bitcoin rewards action, especially the action of ongoing, consistent, persistent, regular and perhaps aggressive accumulation and erroring in on the side of HODL.

And yeah, it is problematic if guys are fucking around trying to trade bitcoin and not staying committed to accumulation and HODL practices.  No hands are going to be held, and there are also no guarantees that the BTC price is going to go up from here or from any other price point, even though many of the longer term bitcoiners who have largely stuck with accumulation and HODL strategies, we have largely come to realize that bitcoin has tended to trend UPPity, especially in the longer timelines such as 4-10 years or longer, even though in shorter timelines, it can be quite difficult to know whether it is going to go up, down or sideways.. and we are not even guaranteed UPPity in the 4-10 years or longer timeline, even though many guys who have errored on the side of accumulating and holding bitcoin have been quite greatly rewarded by engaging in behaviors (actions) that ongoingly and regularly employ accumulation and HODL strategies.

[edited out]
* Spends the last 15 years of his life working to advance Bitcoin adoption and use cases. Gets called a non BTC believer for selling the top and then making a fortune in equities.

I am glad you guys want to declare victory over the four year cycle so badly, but BTC needs to double from here before I’m even at a break even point with the performance of my portfolio… No regrets selling thus far. If we end the year at $200K I might change my tune.

Of course,  almost no matter the scenario, who could deny that you would not be a winner, absent some extreme scenario in which BTC goes to $200k within the next 3-ish months.

Winner, Winner Chicken dinner.. was likely named after uie-pooie.

Congrats to those of us who DCA’d through the dip and never sold below $100K. We are being rewarded for remaining resolute while being insulted by the panic sellers.  Cheesy

You could have even congratulated ur lil selfie more if you had learned about bitcoin (and its cycles) prior to 2018?   But, yeah, of course, some guys take a wee bit longer than others to figure out these kinds of matters.. seven years of wasted time and efforts could have had been worse, no?



Maybe a guy could get used to those crossed-eyeballs sooner or later?  She seems nice enough.

 Wink Wink
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