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April 17, 2013, 12:58:45 AM |
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More thoughts.
Fair markets are going to start mattering a lot, real soon now.
Part of the growth phase to 266 USD was naive investors pouring into Gox, part of the 75% down leg was gox infrastructure problems. Overshoots in both directions, however, were exacerbated by rampant black hat market manipulation. The black hattery is well explained by CandlestickDave in the reddit post.
The next leg up, when it happens, is going to be collosal: 100 to 2000 or 3000 if it retraces the story we've seen so far, probably with a collapse back to the 300 range on the correction.
There are going to be life insurance guys selling little old ladies bitcoin annuities on Miami Beach.
People are going to lose their life savings.
Look, it's one thing to be have a reputation as the currency of drugs and gambling. But if the story that sticks to bitcoin is that a few well connected insiders with HFT bots took out a generation's worth of savings in 2015, this is going to play into the hands of the entrenched powers that want to ban bitcoin. This leg up will be the last leg up. Forget about 10-20,000. It's back to selling baggies on silkroad.
And the bitcoin community will have no one to blame but themselves.
I have been thinking a lot about how to regulate bitcoin, with and without government intervention.
As CandlestickDave explains in the reddit post, there's a lot that can be done to protect the small trader, in both scenarios.
We need to figure out a way to get this done.
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