It looks like half of the ICOs this year are based on ETH. I think they just want to harvest ETH hype, but when there will be some problem in code, they will sunk like DAO.
The Eth hype is not that strong this year so I think the projects with the best odds are those bringing something really new, and capable of working regardless of Ethereum's performance. So far I have not been able to identify good ico projects that fit these criteria.