Shorting BTC !! (sort of) Looking for Bulls!

[adraza]

I have some reasons to be a bit bearish about BTC price. But all the present "shorting" mechanisms do not really please me.
So I was thinking of something else:

Betting on Mtgox BTC price on this forum.

For example I bet that after exactly A hours from now the BTC price at Mtgox will be equal or less than B USD.
And I am giving odds of X:Y

To be crystal clear:
I bet X BTC saying that after exactly A hours the MTGox BTC price will be less or equal to B $
and the Bull bets Y BTC saying that after exactly A hours the MTGox BTC price will be higher than B $.

After exactly A h the winner takes the total X+Y BTC.


First bet would be:
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=6

What do you say?

Current price at Mtgox is around 91.
7/6 is almost 17% return.

Edited
Yeah right!
Read along! Just tuning.
Don't take this numbers seriously!
True offers will come

[MOB]

Nice odds you gave yourself there...

[adraza]

Yes, indeed.
As I was saying, right now the price is 92.
Are you interested?

[mgio]

wow, only an idiot would take your bet.

[adraza]

So what kind of odds would an Intelligent Bull Human Being would accept?

If your answer is 6:1 then you are wrong.

[Brushan]

Why don't you short on bitfinex? Borrow BTC, sell them, price goes down, buy back, close position.

[mgio]

So what kind of odds would an Intelligent Bull Human Being would accept?

If your answer is 6:1 then you are wrong.

Your number "B" is HIGHER than the current price. If you are neither a bull nor a bear and consider bitcoin to be a random walk (and with this volatility in a 24 period it is!), then you have a 50/50 chance of it being higher (or lower). Since B is higher than the current price, you need to offer better than even odds and you have offered way way worse.

[MOB]

There are some 31.5K BTC to just get to 100 right now.  Whereas for you to win your bet you need only 31.499K BTC or less traction to be made against that wall.

As the other poster already said, only a moron would take this bet at present odds.

Even at 1:1 the bear bet would be the safe and smart bet.

[adraza]

I had tried bitfinex. But they crash once every hour or so. I like to have some control over my money.

[adraza]

The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?

So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself  

What about this bet:

A=1000  (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5

I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds

[mgio]

The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?

So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself 

What about this bet:

A=1000  (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5

I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds

Your odd are still horrible.

Try this:

A=100
B=91
X=1
Y=1

Someone might take you up on that. If you are determined to use B=100, try:

A=100
B=100
X=6
Y=1

Someone might take you up on that too.

Just because most of us have invested in bitcoins, doesn't mean we are idiots.

[MrTeal]

The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?

So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself 

What about this bet:

A=1000  (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5

I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds

Given those odds, you are a bull. If you believe that there's a 50% chance the price will be less than 100 in 40 days, appropriate odds for you would be closer to 1:1. The fact you need 5.5:1 odds in order to make a bet that the price will be anywhere from worthless to a little bit up shows you either think it's very likely the price will rise, or you aren't serious about actually attracting any action.

[adraza]

Just because most of us have invested in bitcoins, doesn't mean we are idiots.

 

Can you see something here?

[adraza]

The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?

So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself 

What about this bet:

A=1000  (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5

I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds

Given those odds, you are a bull. If you believe that there's a 50% chance the price will be less than 100 in 40 days, appropriate odds for you would be closer to 1:1. The fact you need 5.5:1 odds in order to make a bet that the price will be anywhere from worthless to a little bit up shows you either think it's very likely the price will rise, or you aren't serious about actually attracting any action.

Yeah right!
I am so bull that I LOSE the bet in almost all cases IF the price is bigger than now.
I win only if the price stays between present price=92.30 and 100.

And of course I Win if the price is LOWER than now (which is my bearish expectation)

[adraza]

Short term Bet for Short term bulls

A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting for 1 hour.

LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls

A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting 48 hours.

[mgio]

Short term Bet for Short term bulls

A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Open offer for 1 hour.

LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls

A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Open offer for 48 hours.

Still a horrible bet. You need to offer BETTER than even odds.

Everyone, this guy is trying to scam you. DO NOT take these bets!

[MrTeal]

The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?

So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself 

What about this bet:

A=1000  (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5

I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds

Given those odds, you are a bull. If you believe that there's a 50% chance the price will be less than 100 in 40 days, appropriate odds for you would be closer to 1:1. The fact you need 5.5:1 odds in order to make a bet that the price will be anywhere from worthless to a little bit up shows you either think it's very likely the price will rise, or you aren't serious about actually attracting any action.

Yeah right!
I am so bull that I LOSE the bet in almost all cases IF the price is bigger than now.
I win only if the price stays between present price=92.30 and 100.

And of course I Win if the price is LOWER than now (which is my bearish expectation)

You think that the price will go down, but you're demanding a bet where someone has to put 5.5BTC against your 1BTC. Not only that, you're giving yourself a fudge factor by saying that the price can go up as long as it stays below 100.

That screams a lack of confidence in the price going down. If you were a true bear, you would take a 1:1 bet that the price would be below the current price in 40 days, not the crap you're trying to peddle here.

[adraza]

I have the same conditions even if the price is higher than 100.

You can accuse me of scamming if I lose the bet and do not pay the previously agree sum.
Right now you are just talking to yourself.

[adraza]

Short term Bet for Short term bulls

A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the STARTING MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting for 1 hour.

LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls

A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the STARTING MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting 48 hours.

[adraza]

To be honest I believe in Technical Analysis.
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.

100