R.I.P. double digits

[nobbynobbynoob]

Based on usability, the rates should be more like $20
We've gotten many announcements and many started developments, so chances are that some of those will succeed

But since one of Bitcoin's features is that the amount of available coins will not be adjusted to "necessities", this means that we need to accommodate somehow for all the new people aboard. Which means higher rates, even if they don't feel quite right.

Tough to judge a "rational here-and-now" price, isn't it? And even if one does, the market price will usually be higher than that due to speculation (all commodities). I could guess that a "rational" bitcoin price based on the infrastructure and economy we have now is perhaps, generously, $40. Based on that, the recent peak of $260 was about 6x "overinflated". In June 2011, a "rational" price per BTC might well have been 50c, meaning the $30 peak was about 60x overinflated. And a "rational" gold price based on practical usability might be less than $100 per troy ounce, but I can't imagine you'll get anyone to sell it to you even as cheaply as triple that, somehow.

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[evolve]

About an hour ago there was the last chance to see BTC/USD rate bellow 100 on MtGox.
No more double digits ever.

Sorry, proudhon.

Doubt it. It's this kind of blind optimism that got BTC to 266, and it might just do so again, but the end result is inevitable.

This.

[Qoheleth]

I have the feeling that "pretty violent market events" is the norm for bitcoin, and last year was just unusually "slow".

That would be a troublesome trait for a currency!

Yet it's the path a voluntary floating free market currency must take. If this bothers you, perhaps you should avoid it for 5-10-15-20 years.

No doubt. This is a new thing - a truly new thing. People haven't felt out the price yet; everyone has a different idea and is voting with their money. It'll be volatile.

The thing is, I read nobby's post as meaning "Bitcoin is inherently volatile", which I think would be a problem; if I come back in 5-10-15-20 years and it's still jumping around like this, it'd be hard to use it as current money.

[Geist]

I have the feeling that "pretty violent market events" is the norm for bitcoin, and last year was just unusually "slow".

That would be a troublesome trait for a currency!

Yet it's the path a voluntary floating free market currency must take. If this bothers you, perhaps you should avoid it for 5-10-15-20 years.

No doubt. This is a new thing - a truly new thing. People haven't felt out the price yet; everyone has a different idea and is voting with their money. It'll be volatile.

The thing is, I read nobby's post as meaning "Bitcoin is inherently volatile", which I think would be a problem; if I come back in 5-10-15-20 years and it's still jumping around like this, it'd be hard to use it as current money.

That would probably mean Bitcoin not achieve mass adoption. As other have said before, true stability will come through mass adoption or complete failure(aka trillion dollar bitcoin or $0 bitcoin).

[jerkoff]

Real investors/traders know that managing trades is the key to financial gain.

Amateurs and bad traders only focus in trying to predict the future, crystal ball style, with bold statements while pumping their chest. It almost always ends badly because they convince themselves they're right, so they hold on to losing positions forever until they turn positive again, until that one trade that doesn't and wipes them out.