Mining = nuclear arms race?

[GuiltySpark343]

Seems to me like bitcoin mining is basically an arms race. Those with the biggest baddest weapons (greatest Mhash/sec, like how GPUs surpassed CPUs) will profit until the next guy comes along with a bigger gun (ASICs).

I just started getting into bitcoin mining, and I suspect if I invest in GPU hardware now, it will not be able to compete with ASICs once they are out in full force because:

1. price of hardware/Mhash rate is in favor of ASICs
2. Mhash/watt is in favor of ASICs
3. difficulty will increase once ASIcs come out
4. Bitcoin rewards for blocks will decrease in the near future

As such, GPUs will become obsolete. The market will become flooded with users selling their GPUs, and cards like the 6990 or 7970 will become dirt cheap on eBay.

Maybe I should just give up now and stop investing in my GPU mining rig?

[DeathAndTaxes]

Investing in GPUs now would be as stupid as investing in a farm of CPU miners as GPU mining software started to hit the public.