$300 Bitcoin "Guess the Price" Contest

[Rob768]

Well, I asked Akmed over at Talkgold to do a contest with Bitcoin to promote their new Forum and they did just that.

The $300 Cash Contest can be entered at:  http://www.talkgold.com/forum/r331610-.html

Simply head over there and guess the price that 1 bitcoin will be on August 1st at Noon.

Post your guess's hear as well

My guess is going to be $33 (Although I feel this could really take off in the coming weeks)

What do you think?  What are some factors contributing to the possible rise or declien in price over the next 6 weeks?

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[Rob768]

Just curious as to the people here.  What do you guys and girls feel are keep fundamentals that will drive the price of Bitcoins in the coming months ahead? 

Are you guys investors or just users of the currency.  If investors, how long are you holding onto your investment?

Will the userbase continue to grow at an increasing pace like it has recently?  If so what does that mean for the price?

[jalidi]

Bitcoins are the most volatile things I've ever seen in my whole life.

The events of the weekend of early June will not be soon repeated.

I really think it's going to trend back down to the original 10 dollar price it was accepted at for months and months, and it might even stabilize there as more and more new coinage pours into the economy. The block count is whipping, when I started out it was like two solid weeks to the next difficulty, now it is more like 10-11 days, and you just wait, prospective miners are adding more and more machines by the second in the Bitcoin Gold Rush.

If it goes up, just wow... I can't predict it properly. You could write an economics thesis on what's happened just in this month alone.

[Rob768]

I personally think it will consolidate around $15 or so then shoot back up to the high 20's.  As more people get involved the volatility will slow down.  Volatility occurs when there are only a small number of users selling large chunks.

I'm gonna make this call.  $200 per Bitcoin by the end of 2012.  What do you guys think.

The supply is limited and there are billions of people online.

[Rob768]

Link Fixed, sorry

[Saturn7]

6 Million Coins for 6 billion people 

I think when governments get comfortable with the idea of bitcoins and people feel like its a safe way to send money all around the world we will all be on yacht forums debating which boats to buy.

I call this one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMIF2GrdL28

[Rob768]

Agreed, if this thing takes off there is no telling what one Bitcoin will be worth.  $1000, $10000, More? 

[DamienBlack]

At noon what time zone?

In any case, I'm going to throw down an estimate.

$68.40

[SgtSpike]

The requested Web page is categorized as "criminal"

and has been blocked by Web Content Filter.

Please contact your system administrator for further information.

Makes me sad. 

[Rob768]

Continue the guess's here.  I see a lot of Higher ones.  I doubt it will be able to rebound that high

[SgtSpike]

Bitcoins are the most volatile things I've ever seen in my whole life.

The events of the weekend of early June will not be soon repeated.

I really think it's going to trend back down to the original 10 dollar price it was accepted at for months and months, and it might even stabilize there as more and more new coinage pours into the economy. The block count is whipping, when I started out it was like two solid weeks to the next difficulty, now it is more like 10-11 days, and you just wait, prospective miners are adding more and more machines by the second in the Bitcoin Gold Rush.

If it goes up, just wow... I can't predict it properly. You could write an economics thesis on what's happened just in this month alone.

It was never at $10 for months and months.

[Rob768]

Yeah the average was around $10 maybe

[RodeoX]

I'm saying $22.28
But, how the hell would i know?

[Rob768]

I am anxoisly waiting to see where this opens if MtGox ever comes back online.

[CurbsideProphet]

Markets are very irrational in the short term.  Due to recent events my guess would be somewhere around $8 by August.  Long-term I think BTC's will be near worthless.

I'll probably be labled a troll but whatever.  I like the idea and the basic premise of bitcoins but the fact is it's an easily replicable model.  I think this is the first incarnation of what will eventually be a feasible decentralized currency.  Bitcoin is the guinea pig and we are learning a lot through this experiment.  The analogy used in another thread was the success of Facebook.  I don't see Bitcoin as Facebook but one of it's predecessors.  Bitcoin is probably something similar to asian avenue.  Next will come version 2 (Myspace).  And finally the one that really takes off (Facebook).

[Seuros]

11$ the market will crash!

[Rob768]

I think it will be one of two extremes in the long run.  Within 2 years Bitcoins will either be valued at under a buck, or they will take off and huge demand will outstrip supply equating to a price per bitcoin of over $300.

Opinions?

[Superform]

145.89

i still say in a few years people will be amazed that we traded in whole bitcoins... its like the guy buying 2 pizzas for 10000 btc just last year

[kjj]

I have a highly scientific Bitcoin Value Predictor (dartboard) in my office.  Using careful analysis (mean of 3 sums of 3 throws), I calculate $27.333333 per BTC.

[[Coins!]]

Aug 1st will see 3 more difficulties.

1.37M until July 2nd (current)
2.5M until July 12
3.5M until July 23
4.7M until Aug 3rd

So in the middle of the 4.7M difficulty, BTC will need to be worth $80 to remain an equivalent difficulty:price ratio.