Bears, Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

[ElectricMucus]

You didn't do that before or during the crash though
I am interested since you didn't reply to my offer on my own terms: Will you accept the bet the instance I post if I comply to your terms or only when it seems convenient for you?

Where exactly did you make this offer?

Will you accept my bet if I just say lower in one hour if a selloff is on the horizon?

I'd be an absolute idiot to do a short term bet when it is obvious to me that a selloff is coming, and I see nothing contradictory about that. I didn't make this thread to randomly give money away, I made this thread to make money. I think the price will go up, and am looking for leverage. If I think the price is going to go down in the short term obviously I am not going to take any bets in the short term. I am willing to make a longer term bets at any time however.

right there

How about this one:

If price goes over USD250 first I owe you USD250
If price goes under USD50 first you owe me BTC5

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[Kazu]

Sure, I'd do that. There'd need to be an automatic settlement date though.

[ElectricMucus]

Sure, I'd do that. There'd need to be an automatic settlement date though.

Why? If it does stay between 50 and 250 forever then we would be even.

[Kazu]

Sure, I'd do that. There'd need to be an automatic settlement date though.

Why? If it does stay between 50 and 250 forever then we would be even.

Because people on this forum tend to mysteriously disappear after a year or so of being bored and I'd rather close bets after some period?

[ElectricMucus]

Sure, I'd do that. There'd need to be an automatic settlement date though.

Why? If it does stay between 50 and 250 forever then we would be even.

Because people on this forum tend to mysteriously disappear after a year or so of being bored and I'd rather close bets after some period?

Don't worry I'll be around.

take it or leave it.

OH BTW: 

[meangreen]

OP how does this sound: you let someone bet anytime they want for 1:1. Its like you are a bookie .
But if the OP wants to bet when he wants to bet, I would think he should give odds because it is on his terms.
you should start up a numbers game on here. like a lottery the last two or three digits of the volume at mt gox at a certain time would be the winning numbers. you could make some good loot on here.

[Kazu]

OP how does this sound: you let someone bet anytime they want for 1:1. Its like you are a bookie .

Bookies don't let anyone bet for 1:1 whenever they want. Because if they did, they'd constantly lose money.

But if the OP wants to bet when he wants to bet, I would think he should give odds because it is on his terms.
you should start up a numbers game on here. like a lottery the last two or three digits of the volume at mt gox at a certain time would be the winning numbers. you could make some good loot on here.

Thats called a random number generator, not an educated guess like I am trying to create on here. If you want that play satoshidice.

[Kazu]

Sure, I'd do that. There'd need to be an automatic settlement date though.

Why? If it does stay between 50 and 250 forever then we would be even.

Because people on this forum tend to mysteriously disappear after a year or so of being bored and I'd rather close bets after some period?

Don't worry I'll be around.

take it or leave it.

This feels dubious. How will settlement be handled?

OH BTW: 
[IMG]

What is the significance of this?

[ElectricMucus]

It costs 13.37M USD to 250.
And you just made your 666th post, now if that isn't prophetic what else is?  

What do you mean with settlement? I use BTC-e but I gladly accept prices in mtgox, if you prefer gox codes I'd convert it for you of course.
I don't care if the BTC are on a exchange or you send a transaction.

[meangreen]

OP how does this sound: you let someone bet anytime they want for 1:1. Its like you are a bookie .

Bookies don't let anyone bet for 1:1 whenever they want. Because if they did, they'd constantly lose money.

But if the OP wants to bet when he wants to bet, I would think he should give odds because it is on his terms.
you should start up a numbers game on here. like a lottery the last two or three digits of the volume at mt gox at a certain time would be the winning numbers. you could make some good loot on here.

Thats called a random number generator, not an educated guess like I am trying to create on here. If you want that play satoshidice.

what kind of bookie do you have? my boook will take my bet anytime there is a game going? i bet a basketball game I put up $110 to win $100 is that what you are alluding to when you are saying that they give odds?

[Kazu]

It costs 13.37M USD to 250.
And you just made your 666th post, now if that isn't prophetic what else is?  

Very well, confirmed. $250 @ 250 price is 1 BTC.

Electric Mucus shall pay Kazu (me) 1 BTC should the Goxxian "Last price" exchange rate ever trade at over $250. I will pay Electric Mucus 5 BTC if this exchange rate ever drops below $50. My address for which the designated amount should be payed is 14eGu2p3jTW9wZ9bS6Lvk14kPTzwpzUWj8.

[Kazu]

It costs 13.37M USD to 250.
And you just made your 666th post, now if that isn't prophetic what else is?  

What do you mean with settlement? I use BTC-e but I gladly accept prices in mtgox, if you prefer gox codes I'd convert it for you of course.
I don't care if the BTC are on a exchange or you send a transaction.

obviously the prices are GOX LAST TRADE values as specified, and they shall remain GOX LAST TRADE unless both of us agree to change the bet. Under no circumstance will any "averages" of exchange prices be used. Please confirm my last post.

[Kazu]

OP how does this sound: you let someone bet anytime they want for 1:1. Its like you are a bookie .

Bookies don't let anyone bet for 1:1 whenever they want. Because if they did, they'd constantly lose money.

But if the OP wants to bet when he wants to bet, I would think he should give odds because it is on his terms.
you should start up a numbers game on here. like a lottery the last two or three digits of the volume at mt gox at a certain time would be the winning numbers. you could make some good loot on here.

Thats called a random number generator, not an educated guess like I am trying to create on here. If you want that play satoshidice.

what kind of bookie do you have? my boook will take my bet anytime there is a game going? i bet a basketball game I put up $110 to win $100 is that what you are alluding to when you are saying that they give odds?

Yes, they set it so the value is always way less than 1:1 if they expect that team to win for obvious reasons. Unless I somehow get enormous interest in this thread I'm not going to have time to constantly update my odds and thus such a system is not viable unless this thread generated enough interest to warrant my creation of a small website.

[ElectricMucus]

Well you did write at 250 and above but only granted me below 50. Fair is fair
And I offered you exchange codes not BTC. You can buy BTC of course with them once you won the bet. This way we have the same risk of the price overshooting/undershooting at the target.

[Kazu]

Well you did write at 250 and above but only granted me below 50. Fair is fair
And I offered you exchange codes not BTC.

over $250 lol, fine.

BTC is better than exchange since everyone can see the transaction and confirm it was indeed completed. It simply makes more sense for it to be settled as such.

[ElectricMucus]

Well you did write at 250 and above but only granted me below 50. Fair is fair
And I offered you exchange codes not BTC.

over $250 lol, fine.

BTC is better than exchange since everyone can see the transaction and confirm it was indeed completed. It simply makes more sense for it to be settled as such.

That may be so, but these are my terms. I take the risk of the BTC being worth less and less once the price breaks 50, it is only fair that you are exposed to the same risk.

[Kazu]

Well you did write at 250 and above but only granted me below 50. Fair is fair
And I offered you exchange codes not BTC.

over $250 lol, fine.

BTC is better than exchange since everyone can see the transaction and confirm it was indeed completed. It simply makes more sense for it to be settled as such.

That may be so, but these are my terms.

And why exactly, may I ask, did you have me pay you in a form that can be publicly verified while you will pay me in a way that cannot? As you put it, fair is fair.

[ElectricMucus]

Well you did write at 250 and above but only granted me below 50. Fair is fair
And I offered you exchange codes not BTC.

over $250 lol, fine.

BTC is better than exchange since everyone can see the transaction and confirm it was indeed completed. It simply makes more sense for it to be settled as such.

That may be so, but these are my terms.

And why exactly, may I ask, did you have me pay you in a form that can be publicly verified while you will pay me in a way that cannot? As you put it, fair is fair.

See above,
If there is a method to make the transaction publicly verifiable I would do that. But it has to be in dollar. (Could we use ripple?)

[Kazu]

Well you did write at 250 and above but only granted me below 50. Fair is fair
And I offered you exchange codes not BTC.

over $250 lol, fine.

BTC is better than exchange since everyone can see the transaction and confirm it was indeed completed. It simply makes more sense for it to be settled as such.

That may be so, but these are my terms.

And why exactly, may I ask, did you have me pay you in a form that can be publicly verified while you will pay me in a way that cannot? As you put it, fair is fair.

See above,
If there is a method to make the transaction publicly verifiable I would do that. But it has to be in dollar. (Could we use ripple?)

Once again, please explain why I am paying you in a better currency than you are paying me.
here's how you pay me in USD and make it publicly verifiable:
-You go to the place where you would give me a key
-You suddenly direct your mouse in a sudden movement upwards and to the left.
-You click on "trade"
-You buy bitcoins
-You then withdraw those bitcoins to me.
That so hard? It seems really odd why there is any reason you would not wish to pay me in such a manner. I'll tell you what, if this is whats bugging you so, I'll pay the 0.6% transaction fee  

If there is some legitimate reason for you not wanting to pay me in bitcoins, please speak. If not, I see no reason to agree to a bet where you seem to be on purpose creating circumstances that are not transparent.

[ElectricMucus]

Again these are my terms, you either agree to them or you don't.

This is a taste of your own medicine.  
BTW: I am willing to accept exchange codes too btw this way neither of us has the advantage. It would even be instant vs waiting for 6 conformations....

PS: I was really looking forward to this superiority complex of yours.