Bears, Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

[kibblesnbits]

Or, bet Disagree on the statement in my sgnature

Egads there's huge loopholes in this bet

A bitcoin trade will be executed at Mt. Gox for $500 USD or more at any time before January 1st 2014.

The bet closes as soon as a price of $500 or more is reached at any time before the event date.

To make this statement true, any trade for any amount of BTC for any amount of $ over 500 would work.  So I could buy 100BTC at $120/per and close the bet. 

Make it "the cost of one BTC will be greater than 500 USD at any time before 1/1/14".  Do that and I'm in.

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1715155949

[1715155949]

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[Kazu]

Here are my odds. We are currently ~25% above $100, so assuming 1 month from now we are below $100 (i.e, down bet, NOT one-touch) you will receive 125% of your bet in profit.

I'm not going to do a one-touch of $100 as that has way too good of a chance of happening. However I'm willing to do a one-touch of $90, with 1:1 odds. You will receive 100% of your bet in profit if you win.

[Kazu]

Or, bet Disagree on the statement in my sgnature

Egads there's huge loopholes in this bet

A bitcoin trade will be executed at Mt. Gox for $500 USD or more at any time before January 1st 2014.

The bet closes as soon as a price of $500 or more is reached at any time before the event date.

To make this statement true, any trade for any amount of BTC for any amount of $ over 500 would work.  So I could buy 100BTC at $120/per and close the bet. 

Make it "the cost of one BTC will be greater than 500 USD at any time before 1/1/14".  Do that and I'm in.

I'm willing to do:

"On Mount Gox, at least 1 trade will occur before 1/1/14 with the exchange rate of $500 = 1 BTC"

[adraza]

Here are my odds. We are currently ~25% above $100, so assuming 1 month from now we are below $100 (i.e, down bet, NOT one-touch) you will receive 125% of your bet in profit.

I'm not going to do a one-touch of $100 as that has way too good of a chance of happening. However I'm willing to do a one-touch of $90, with 1:1 odds. You will receive 100% of your bet in profit if you win.

1. we do need an escrow for that

2. ok sounds interesting

3. if I extend your judgement I presume you would expect a similar reversed odds for the 150 BET? 

Let's do some math: current price 128.44

150/128= 1.171875

so I pay about 1.2 you pay 1. The winner takes the pot.

am I right?

[adraza]

Better and more elegant:

What if the odds are exactly current price/100 : 1 for the down bet to be less than 100 at the end of May (right now, apparently more safer for you)

and 1: 150/current price for the down bet to be less than 150 at the end of May (for now, more safer for me)

What do you say?

We need an escrow.
I may want to bet more than 1$.

[Kazu]

DERPED SEE NEXT REPLY!

[Kazu]

Better and more elegant:

What if the odds are exactly current price/100 : 1 for the down bet to be less than 100 at the end of May (right now, apparently more safer for you)

and 1: 150/current price for the down bet to be less than 150 at the end of May (for now, more safer for me)

What do you say?

We need an escrow.
I may want to bet more than 1$.

Okay this is better.

This is legit. If you can find an escrow I trust, I'll go for it. Note I will not use betsofbitco.in because they trolled me in the past. Or you could just trust me. Either way, I'm in.

EDIT: I'm actually going to put that in OP, its a good form of standardized odds.

[adraza]

Also, being a bear (at least for now) I like USD so the problem comes when we end the bet, and the bear wins.
You need to provide a bigger collateral than the initial BTC deposit. Just imagine if BTC is down to 50$.
If the BULL wins then my collateral is more than enough to pay for your wins.

I think we should set some predefined limits if we need to end the bet in advance.

[Kazu]

Also, being a bear (at least for now) I like USD so the problem comes when we end the bet, and the bear wins.
You need to provide a bigger collateral than the initial BTC deposit. Just imagine if BTC is down to 50$.
If the BULL wins then my collateral is more than enough to pay for your wins.

I think we should set some predefined limits if we need to end the bet in advance.

I'm not understanding the problem. You just exchange the coins upon their being received.

[adraza]

IF we use an escrow we should deposit the money at the beginning of the bet. And if the price of BTC is down you won't have enough to pay in USD.
 That's why I asked for an initial bigger collateral in BTC from the bull.

If we don't use an escrow... then we don't. We have to trust each other in USD, and in extreme cases I think there would be some problems. Like BTC very high I could default or very low you could.

[adraza]

About the one touch bet:

current price 128.5

strike price (anytime within the next 24 hours)

128.5*0.87=111.795

Bet for 100 USD!

[adraza]

About the one touch bet:

current price 128.5

strike price (anytime within the next 24 hours)

128.5*0.87=111.795

Bet for 100 USD!

no escrow for now.

[adraza]

com'on

[Kazu]

I'm still not understanding what you want. The escrow simply exchanges the BTC upon receiving it.

BTC (from me) + BTC (from you) -> Escrow -> Exchange -> $$$ to escrow -> Time goes by, winner wins the money -> Exchange -> BTC to escrow (we've been hedged out of BTC so no risk to you) -> BTC to winner.

[adraza]

yes, that can be a solution but would put an additional burden on the escrow.

[adraza]

what about the one touch bet ?

do you confirm? see up.

[Kazu]

About the one touch bet:

current price 128.5

strike price (anytime within the next 24 hours)

128.5*0.87=111.795

Bet for 100 USD!

Confirmed. Expiration: 01:12:32 AM 4/21/2013 UTC.

[Kazu]

Ignore

[Kazu]

We are in bear mode! Doesn't someone want to short!

[arepo]

maybe because it's silly to agree to a bet in which your winnings are denominated in the currency whose exchange rate your bet is against.