A brief history of exponential trends

[ElectricMucus]

I like how the bulls use to draw their cute charts of how Bitcoin is going up, uP and UP on a logarithmic chart.

The cute thing about it is that once they are posted that historically means they are going to be broken below that point. I've made this small collection to demonstrate.


From top to bottom these are past exponential trends and how they got broken on the chart below it.
So we have got a new exponential trendline again will it be broken?

Take a guess.... 

[ElectricMucus]

Here is how the current exponential trend looks on the all time chart.

[BitSmile]

You're right. these lines are purely crystal balling, because the price will always come down after a big rally. In 100 years time the line will have a much smaller amplitude, but the price will be much much higher. (if bitcoin is still around)

[Miz4r]

It all depends if bitcoin manages to break through into the mainstream now. If it doesn't and it fades back into obscurity then yes the current trendline will be broken again. If it does break through the trendline won't be broken again and bitcoin will become the biggest bull market ever in the history of mankind. Personally I'm betting on the latter, although it might take a few more years. Bitcoin's succes also depends on its believers, and you have to be a bull to be a believer (at least long term). Sometimes I think this works just like a self-fulfilling prophecy, it will only become a success if enough people believe it will. If they don't, it won't. Probably not that simple but I do think there's some truth to it.

[piramida]

All is well besides that all of your lines are wrong (drawn from an arbitrary starting point which is not really useful). So all of your conclusions are wrong, as well.

Draw some lines through bottoms, then you will see some clearer pictures. Your "current trendline" chart is more or less correct, except that you should consider periods with any trading volume, for example it would make sense to start at Jan 11. Trading before that was between about two people.

If you draw the trendline through bottoms, starting at Jan 11, you will see that right now it goes through ~20$. If the price ever goes below that then yes, exponential growth trendline which quadruples yearly has been broken, but it was not yet, instead it was confirmed four times in three years.

[ElectricMucus]

All is well besides that all of your lines are wrong (drawn from an arbitrary starting point which is not really useful). So all of your conclusions are wrong, as well.

My conclusion is that every exponential trend line gets broken how is that wrong?

Draw some lines through bottoms, then you will see some clearer pictures. Your "current trendline" chart is more or less correct, except that you should consider periods with any trading volume, for example it would make sense to start at Jan 11.

Do it yourself and post it here. I'm not sure what you are asking me to do, I get the feeling that drawing them differently will have even more stunning results.

Trading before that was between about two people.

How do you know? Were you one of them?

[ElectricMucus]

Some bulls do not draw any charts. Some bulls just know that we have exponentially rising adoption in progress and that the price is directly proportional to number of people involved in the Bitcoin Economy.

Whether it rises 200% or 1000% a year is not making such a huge difference. The destination is the same it is only changing time required to get there.

P.S. Ohh, an so far, it closer to 1000% per year than to 200%.

Well ultimately there can be only one of two outcomes:
A sigmoid curve or a bell shaped one.

[piramida]

Do it yourself and post it here. I'm not sure what you are asking me to do, I get the feeling that drawing them differently will have even more stunning results.

Ok, my version of "correct" trendline is this one, confirmed repeatedly over three years:



If it ever gets broken, I'd become a bear and consider bitcoin idea dying. This trendline means almost exactly 4x minimum possible price each year. That is why I am waiting for the current "crash" to end it's bear run near $30 by autumn.

[ElectricMucus]

Do it yourself and post it here. I'm not sure what you are asking me to do, I get the feeling that drawing them differently will have even more stunning results.

Ok, my version of "correct" trendline is this one, confirmed repeatedly over three years:

pic

That's essentially the same line. And it does not make sense to draw it that way on any point before January 2013.
Will you be drawing the same line from a even more recent point in the future?

[piramida]

Will you be drawing the same line from a even more recent point in the future?

No, I added some text below, which means this line I consider as minimum bitcoin price growth. I don't think it is possible for the price to go below that line, unless something fatal happens to the protocol itself. So far, it has served me well in predicting ends of decline.

[ElectricMucus]

Will you be drawing the same line from a even more recent point in the future?

No, I added some text below, which means this line I consider as minimum bitcoin price growth. I don't think it is possible for the price to go below that line, unless something fatal happens to the protocol itself. So far, it has served me well in predicting ends of decline.

That doesn't make any sense, since this line doesn't really touch the lower end of the chart until January 2013.

Yes it will be broken in two possible ways:
Either if the price falls below it.
Or if the growth slows down to below it's slope till the line catches up.

Since this time prices did rise on a hyper-exponential slope I'd rather think it will be the former than the latter.

[piramida]

That doesn't make any sense, since this line doesn't really touch the lower end of the chart until January 2013.

It does touch, the line drawn approximately since I dont have proper tools with me, you can see it is 2mm below the lows, so you can see them. We'll see, if your prediction is true, by the end of this year price would have travelled below 20 and I've sold all my coins and went elsewhere then.

[ElectricMucus]

That doesn't make any sense, since this line doesn't really touch the lower end of the chart until January 2013.

It does touch, the line drawn approximately since I dont have proper tools with me, you can see it is 2mm below the lows, so you can see them. We'll see, if your prediction is true, by the end of this year price would have travelled below 20 and I've sold all my coins and went elsewhere then.

Exactly, it's not a question of if but a question of when. And discarding every other rationale about bubbles you might think it won't be that soon but that still doesn't make it likely to happen.
This line will suffer the exact same faith as the previous ones, but there is a trick to it:

Come up with a way to estimate the length where it does match the trend and you've got a system.

[amencon]

Also, water is wet.

[ElectricMucus]

Also, water is wet.

I told ya! 

[amencon]

Also, water is wet.

I told ya! 

hah!

Sesame Street for bitcoiners, brought to you by Electric Mucus.

Now where's our word of the day dude?

[GotBitCoins]

very interesting ElectricMucus - it puts things in perspective. ty.

[Miz4r]

Exactly, it's not a question of if but a question of when. And discarding every other rationale about bubbles you might think it won't be that soon but that still doesn't make it likely to happen.

What a bunch of bullshit. Either bitcoin goes to 0 or it goes to the moon, simple as that. Your charts and trendlines predict absolutely nothing about the future. Once bitcoin truly starts taking off and it looks like it just might, all these so called trends and charts go right out the window and we have a whole new ballgame. Now you may believe this whole bitcoin experiment will fail or won't get widespread recognition, but you can't say this with any amount of certainty just as I can't. So yes, it's entirely a matter of 'if', not 'when'.

[ElectricMucus]

Exactly, it's not a question of if but a question of when. And discarding every other rationale about bubbles you might think it won't be that soon but that still doesn't make it likely to happen.

What a bunch of bullshit. Either bitcoin goes to 0 or it goes to the moon, simple as that. Your charts and trendlines predict absolutely nothing about the future. Once bitcoin truly starts taking off and it looks like it just might, all these so called trends and charts go right out the window and we have a whole new ballgame. Now you may believe this whole bitcoin experiment will fail or won't get widespread recognition, but you can't say this with any amount of certainty just as I can't. So yes, it's entirely a matter of 'if', not 'when'.

Some people will never understand exponential functions I guess. 

[Miz4r]

Some people will never understand exponential functions I guess. 

Ok let's see if I understand this well.. you claim that the exponential trend upwards will continue to decline right? Well if you wait long enough this is dead obvious because at some point bitcoin will have reached its peak or slow down so the trendline will eventually catch up to that. Maybe I just don't understand the point you are trying to make here.