A brief history of exponential trends

[ElectricMucus]

Some people will never understand exponential functions I guess. 

Ok let's see if I understand this well.. you claim that the exponential trend upwards will continue to decline right? Well if you wait long enough this is dead obvious because at some point bitcoin will have reached its peak or slow down so the trendline will eventually catch up to that. Maybe I just don't understand the point you are trying to make here. 

I do.
Do you understand mine?

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[Miz4r]

Something can't exponentially increase forever? Well at least I understand the comment now from a previous poster that water is wet.

[Gatekeeper]

the point being made here is that ElectricMucus is a very sad lame troll, that you really have to pity, because he tries so hard.

[herzmeister]

I do.
Do you understand mine?

Shit looks much like Gold actually.

[ElectricMucus]

I do.
Do you understand mine?

Shit looks much like Gold actually.

too bad you can't sell it. 

[herzmeister]

do not trust statistics you didn't forge yourself.  



and the recent price drop is rigged of course. Any gold bug will tell you! It's because they're getting rid of the those funny gold certificates, and get the real stuff instead.  

[ElectricMucus]

do not trust statistics you didn't forge yourself.  



and the recent price drop is rigged of course. Any gold bug will tell you! It's because they're getting rid of the those funny gold certificates, and get the real stuff instead.  

Well, not exactly. That drop is very real.
The issue with actual gold is, gold futures can also include gold which isn't mined yet. The next thing is gold is close to it's hubbert peak so that selloff here comes from a record supply of gold along with a exponential speculative demand due to the expected decline in supply in the next decades. Of course those estimates can be bullshit and gold is really a bubble.

[Kazu]

Trends can be exponential they tend to end up making a reasonable price gain, overshooting, then dropping to the "true" valuation. See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MSFT+Interactive#symbol=msft;range=19860313,20061214;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

OR:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ATVI+Interactive#symbol=atvi;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

[ElectricMucus]

Trends can be exponential they tend to end up making a reasonable price gain, overshooting, then dropping to the "true" valuation. See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MSFT+Interactive#symbol=msft;range=19860313,20061214;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

OR:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ATVI+Interactive#symbol=atvi;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Right, but if I were a stock trader I'd short Microsoft. Surface & Windows 8? nooooo!  
ActiBlizz? They fabricated the biggest disaster yet with DiabloIII

[Ekaros]

Trends can be exponential they tend to end up making a reasonable price gain, overshooting, then dropping to the "true" valuation. See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MSFT+Interactive#symbol=msft;range=19860313,20061214;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

OR:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ATVI+Interactive#symbol=atvi;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Atleast those aren't log charts...

Which make insane things look way too sane...

[bitrider]

Trends can be exponential they tend to end up making a reasonable price gain, overshooting, then dropping to the "true" valuation. See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MSFT+Interactive#symbol=msft;range=19860313,20061214;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

OR:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ATVI+Interactive#symbol=atvi;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Right, but if I were a stock trader I'd short Microsoft. Surface & Windows 8? nooooo!  
ActiBlizz? They fabricated the biggest disaster yet with DiabloIII

Come on. That's all you got??    Totally irrelevant response.

I was seriously looking forward to your response here. Basically to check if you believe what you are saying, and have a consistent argument - therefore worth considering further ....or if you are just enjoying the attention, and will say anything to disturb the confused and scared.

So...what is your response to other exponential adoption curves that have turned out well?

[ElectricMucus]

ok well that was kind of lazy of me.

Take that microsoft stock for example. This was a change over a long time period and in the long run bitcoin might look like that too. This was fueld by real growth and real sales. (Duh, it's Microsoft, they still have contracts with about every OEM, business software producers and hold a near monopoly in that field still.
Yet, in case of Microsoft I think they are over the peak, but I am sure there are better examples than that.

The peak you are seeing is actually the .com bubble which took many casualties and microsoft was one of the winners. In terms of bitcoin the bubble is fueld by the many upstarts which come and go with a few successful remaining. Overall I think the valuation of Bitcoin will more resemble the nasdaq than microsoft.

[bitrider]

appreciate that answer... So your argument is really just your opinion about the growth path of the btc (not a structural argument about the impossibility of exponential adoption).. Ok. got it. Thanks.

[Kazu]

Trends can be exponential they tend to end up making a reasonable price gain, overshooting, then dropping to the "true" valuation. See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MSFT+Interactive#symbol=msft;range=19860313,20061214;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

OR:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ATVI+Interactive#symbol=atvi;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Right, but if I were a stock trader I'd short Microsoft. Surface & Windows 8? nooooo!  
ActiBlizz? They fabricated the biggest disaster yet with DiabloIII

Don't worry Im short Acti. Not MSFT yet though, the windows 8 mini-fail is already priced in, and the next big move will probably come with windows blue and that looks legit. Also office 365 is super good and will likely get them more revenue because its a subscription and thus can't be pirated.

[GotBitCoins]

I really appreciate this thread.

It gives a mult-years perspective on what's going on -

It seems like in the case of the BitCoin it's a war between the enthusiasm of new technology and the speculative mania that can burn it.

We know that many times when a new technology is introduced - we have this wave of early adopters that are so enthusiastic about it that they take the price up exponentially. Then after it cools down, it starts rising again slowly till there's public acceptance.

It seems like in the case of BitCoin we are witnessing not only one exponent followed by public acceptance, but more like waves and waves of public acceptance, each time going into exponential Mania and then dropping again and then drawing a bigger circle of acceptance and then mania again and then drop and so on.

So it makes sense that if (IF) BitCoin makes it - then we shall witness every 2 years an Exponential Mania, followed by despair.

If so then we are right now at the Bear following the Mania - that should last many months till the price shall become undervalued again and the chartists will have to adjust their exponent...

(Specifically right now we are in an unsustained post Mania suckers rally)

Yes, one needs lots of patience, to sit on the sidelines for several months ready with cash to get a good entry price - but then it seems like almost the sky is the limit...

GotBitCoins.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Ok, my version of "correct" trendline is this one, confirmed repeatedly over three years:



If it ever gets broken, I'd become a bear and consider bitcoin idea dying. This trendline means almost exactly 4x minimum possible price each year. That is why I am waiting for the current "crash" to end it's bear run near $30 by autumn.

Interesting. This indicates it will be several years before we reach mainstream adoption valuations (~$10,000-$100,000), whereas the 2013 exponential trend has us reaching mainstream early next year. That makes this slower trend look more realistic.

However, this common estimate at BTC price upon reaching mainstream adoption seems like it could be an artifact of the common misconception that Bitcoin derives the bulk of its value from its medium-of-exchange usage. Since it quite obviously derives the vast part of its valuation from its store-of-value functionality, mainstream adoption figures should be far, far higher. Trace Mayer has a figure of several million dollars per bitcoin just to accoint for tax haven accounts all being shifted to Bitcoin. Not to mention everything else. And not to mention the massive efficiency gains Bitcoin will bring about. With all that factored in, this slow exponential growth seems like it could take 20 years to reach mainstream.

Furthermore, adoption curves are S-shaped, meaning it could actually take much longer than this (~50 years) to reach mainstream adoption at this slow rate. This brings us back to the current trendline (doubling every 5 weeks until inflection) as looking quite good again.

[piramida]

Interesting. This indicates it will be several years before we reach mainstream adoption valuations (~$10,000-$100,000), whereas the 2013 exponential trend has us reaching mainstream early next year. That makes this slower trend look more realistic.

However, this common estimate at BTC price upon reaching mainstream adoption seems like it could be an artifact of the common misconception that Bitcoin derives the bulk of its value from its medium-of-exchange usage. Since it quite obviously derives the vast part of its valuation from its store-of-value functionality, mainstream adoption figures should be far, far higher. Trace Mayer has a figure of several million dollars per bitcoin just to accoint for tax haven accounts all being shifted to Bitcoin. Not to mention everything else. And not to mention the massive efficiency gains Bitcoin will bring about. With all that factored in, this slow exponential growth seems like it could take 20 years to reach mainstream.

Furthermore, adoption curves are S-shaped, meaning it could actually take much longer than this (~50 years) to reach mainstream adoption at this slow rate. This brings us back to the current trendline (doubling every 5 weeks until inflection) as looking quite good again.

I do believe it may go faster at times, but it will be returning to the slow growth line when "omg bitcoin is dead" every now and then And to have all tax haven money in bitcoin it should first earn a solid reputation among even the harshest critics, which could easily take dozens of years. The 5-digit or higher numbers  would be possible - once we have real economy (producer chains operating completely in bitcoin, with all manufacturing, parts, advertisement and mining prices not tied to fiat but to bitcoin) - and this would also take many years of gradual shifting. These are all very rigid areas to change overnight.

[cloon]

my version is this one:
the bottom line is not a straight line it's a curve
so now i see the bottom at 22 USD
it worked really well for me at the last touch of the line ;-)

[GotBitCoins]

my version is this one:
the bottom line is not a straight line it's a curve
so now i see the bottom at 22 USD
it worked really well for me at the last touch of the line ;-)
http://s15.postimg.org/4aobidzaz/bitcoinbild.jpg

I can't see your chart - it's blocked saying 'adult and pornography'...

[ElectricMucus]

my version is this one:
the bottom line is not a straight line it's a curve
so now i see the bottom at 22 USD
it worked really well for me at the last touch of the line ;-)

That makes sense actually but it isn't really a clear trend.... Drawing this curve afterwards is easy but make it such that it actually predicts the bottom is much, much harder.
If the slope of the curve asymptotically approaches zero it could be possible to hold true. If not it could just become worthless again.

Finally asymptotic laws trend to break down into chaos quite often, especially if they are tested near it's limits...

*I replaced your chart on imgur so that GotBitCoins can see it. (Get a more sane browser though!)